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NFLX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 318 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-06 → 2025-01-27

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: May 23, 2002 🔗 www.netflix.com
💰 Market Cap: $365.31B 👥 Employees: 14,000
Netflix's relatively simple business model involves only one business, its streaming service. It has the biggest television entertainment subscriber base in both the United States and the collective international market, with more than 300 million subscribers globally. Netflix has exposure to nearly the entire global population outside of China. The firm has traditionally avoided a regular slate of live programming or sports content, instead focusing on on-demand access to episodic television, movies, and documentaries. The firm introduced ad-supported subscription plans in 2022, giving the firm exposure to the advertising market in addition to the subscription fees that have historically accounted for nearly all its revenue.
📊
318
Total Alerts
🎯
50.9%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.21%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+2.22%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 48.7%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.55%
Avg Loser: -0.51%
Best: +2.07%
Worst: -2.62%
Trades: 155/163

15MIN

Win Rate: 49.4%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.95%
Avg Loser: -0.95%
Best: +3.57%
Worst: -4.34%
Trades: 157/161

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.3%
Avg Gain: +0.02%
Avg Winner: +1.25%
Avg Loser: -1.22%
Best: +4.56%
Worst: -8.43%
Trades: 160/158

60MIN

Win Rate: 49.4%
Avg Gain: +0.06%
Avg Winner: +1.43%
Avg Loser: -1.27%
Best: +5.64%
Worst: -11.91%
Trades: 157/161

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.9%
Avg Gain: +0.21%
Avg Winner: +2.21%
Avg Loser: -1.88%
Best: +9.96%
Worst: -8.93%
Trades: 162/156

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.22%
Best MFE: +14.38%
Avg Time to MFE: 138 min

On average, NFLX alerts reach +2.22% profit potential within 138 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.85%
Worst MAE: -11.80%
Avg Time to MAE: 19 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.85%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.6:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.6x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 318 alerts, NFLX typically reaches +2.22% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 318
Gap Up % 41.5%
Avg Gap -0.04%
Best Gap +0.97%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-VIDEO TAPE RENTAL

How NFLX compares to 2 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
NFLX: +0.01% Sector: +0.00% +0.00%
EOD Gain
NFLX: +0.21% Sector: +0.08% +0.13%
Avg MFE
NFLX: +2.22% Sector: +2.27% -0.05%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NFLX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-27 09:25:07 $966.55 +0.28% +0.39% +0.18% +1.39% +0.55% +1.63% -0.16% +0.47% WIN
2025-01-23 09:25:18 $956.84 -0.09% +1.71% +1.53% +1.63% +2.93% +2.94% -0.34% +0.10% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:26:10 $998.01 -2.62% -2.11% -1.56% -2.40% -4.41% +0.40% -0.10% +0.00% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:28:14 $863.0 +0.60% +0.45% -0.58% +0.05% +0.77% +9.02% -0.96% +0.06% WIN
2025-01-08 09:29:53 $879.63 +0.62% +0.05% +0.23% -0.33% -0.53% +0.75% -0.19% +0.04% WIN
2024-12-17 09:28:43 $920.41 +0.61% +0.58% +0.30% +0.37% -0.14% +0.87% +0.07% +0.12% WIN
2024-11-22 09:28:30 $897.0 +0.10% +0.01% +0.61% +0.13% +0.09% +1.00% -0.45% -0.11% WIN
2024-10-31 09:25:03 $752.48 +0.26% +0.20% +0.41% +0.56% +0.47% +1.10% -0.03% +0.19% WIN
2024-10-21 09:27:43 $764.57 +0.27% -0.59% -0.61% -0.34% +0.98% +1.10% -1.04% +0.16% WIN
2024-10-18 09:29:16 $738.6 +0.80% +1.64% +2.10% +2.75% +3.42% +3.75% -0.32% -0.13% WIN
2024-09-23 09:27:06 $701.06 -0.12% +0.36% +1.35% +1.16% +0.61% +1.60% -0.27% +0.19% LOSS
2024-08-12 09:25:15 $634.98 -0.71% -0.90% -0.94% -0.23% -0.29% +0.63% -1.25% -0.63% LOSS
2024-08-08 09:27:49 $616.01 +0.97% +1.30% +0.09% +1.30% +2.33% +2.64% +0.00% +0.97% WIN
2024-08-05 09:25:54 $594.34 -0.37% -0.89% +0.65% +1.16% +0.71% +1.72% -1.23% -1.23% LOSS
2024-07-19 09:28:04 $660.66 +2.07% -2.94% -1.87% -3.13% -4.14% +2.77% -0.25% -0.00% WIN
2024-07-11 09:29:26 $671.71 -0.52% -0.64% -0.62% -1.55% -2.82% +0.12% -0.24% +0.12% LOSS
2024-06-26 09:29:41 $671.52 +0.05% +0.50% +0.91% +0.71% +0.92% +1.70% -0.22% +0.13% WIN
2024-06-06 09:29:18 $645.61 +0.56% +1.18% +0.96% +1.60% +0.45% +1.92% -0.21% -0.11% WIN
2024-05-28 09:25:13 $647.39 +0.01% -0.26% -0.56% -0.00% +0.25% +0.40% -0.67% -0.05% WIN
2024-04-25 09:26:18 $548.33 -0.18% +0.67% +1.39% +1.63% +3.00% +3.32% -0.48% +0.21% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 50.9% Baseline on NFLX

The 50.9% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push NFLX's performance to 75%+.

Optimize NFLX Strategy →

Why Analyze NFLX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NFLX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NFLX historically offers an average upside of +2.22% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NFLX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.9%, NFLX shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show NFLX performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.21%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.