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$SPCX +666.52% — what the base rate says

$SPCX +666.52% — what the base rate says

The physics of a no-news pump are beautiful in their predictability. While the retail crowd spent Friday chasing the historic launch of $SPCX (+666.52%), semiconductor play $AXTI quietly spiked +15.22% on absolutely zero news. The base rate for this behavior is uncompromising: across 7,131 historical instances, no-news gap-ups of 15% or more close red 60% of the time.

Checking our June 10 receipts: our $VSME call is down -46% since the post (opened 3.70, closed 2.05)—a solid win. Our $MSW call is up +5% since the post (opened 2.05, closed 1.35)—we track the bounces just as closely as the drops.

Chasing late-day volume spikes on zero context is a highly efficient way to fund a professional trader's holiday. Close the laptop and journal the errors.

What the data showed

  • $SPCX +666.52% Space Exploration Technologies Corp. · closed red 65% · green 34% (n=2,881)
  • $AXTI +15.22% AXT, Inc. · closed red 60% · green 39% (n=7,131) mcap $5.1B · float 62M shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
  • $WDS +6.60% Woodside Energy Group Ltd mcap $41.9B · float 1.9B shares · sector: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas
  • $DBI +6.55% Designer Brands Inc. mcap $356M · float 26M shares · sector: RETAIL-SHOE STORES
  • $SMMT +5.94% Summit Therapeutics Inc. mcap $11.1B · float 123M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
  • $ORIC +5.63% ORIC Pharmaceuticals, Inc. mcap $828M · float 102M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
  • $TFPM +4.77% Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. mcap $7.3B · float 203M shares
  • $AROW +3.91% Arrow Financial Corporation
  • $MKTX +3.74% MarketAxess Holdings Inc.
  • $WT +2.69% WisdomTree, Inc. mcap $2.6B · float 122M shares · sector: SECURITY BROKERS, DEALERS & FLOTATION COMPANIES
  • $SPCE -31.33% Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. · closed red 59% · green 40% (n=865) mcap $479M · float 99M shares · sector: TRANSPORTATION SERVICES
  • $RKLB -9.22% Rocket Lab Corporation mcap $67.6B · float 473M shares · sector: GUIDED MISSILES & SPACE VEHICLES & PARTS
  • $MBX -8.07% MBX Biosciences, Inc. float 35M shares
  • $ADBE -7.34% Adobe Inc. mcap $96.2B · float 403M shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
  • $BNO -2.48% United States Brent Oil Fund LP ETF float 7M shares · sector: COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS
  • $USO -2.45% United States Oil Fund LP ETF float 16M shares · sector: COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS
  • $PLTR -2.26% Palantir Technologies Inc. mcap $316.6B · float 2.2B shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
  • $LAES -2.03% SEALSQ Corp mcap $682M · float 209M shares
  • $KTOS -1.68% Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. mcap $10.5B · float 185M shares · sector: GUIDED MISSILES & SPACE VEHICLES & PARTS
  • $AZN -1.41% AstraZeneca PLC mcap $277.5B · float 1.5B shares · sector: Pharmaceutical Preparations

Hype-driven rotations are where retail goes to die. Run the backtest on FILTRIX.net before you chase another space-themed pump into the weekend. Discipline > FOMO

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