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SPCE Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 424 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-01-22

🏢 Company Profile

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. TRANSPORTATION SERVICES (SIC 4700)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Sep 29, 2017 🔗 www.virgingalactic.com
💰 Market Cap: $224.5M 👥 Employees: 744
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc is a United States-based vertically integrated aerospace company pioneering human spaceflight for private individuals & researchers, and it also manufactures air and space vehicles. Using technologies, the company is developing a spaceflight system designed to offer its customers a multi-day, and transformative experience. This culminates in a spaceflight that includes views of Earth from space and several minutes of weightlessness that will launch from Spaceport America, New Mexico.
📊
424
Total Alerts
🎯
74.3%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+1049.26%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+3.72%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 42.7%
Avg Gain: -0.24%
Avg Winner: +1.07%
Avg Loser: -1.29%
Best: +4.24%
Worst: -5.24%
Trades: 181/229

15MIN

Win Rate: 42.2%
Avg Gain: -0.24%
Avg Winner: +2.04%
Avg Loser: -2.01%
Best: +8.48%
Worst: -9.71%
Trades: 179/231

30MIN

Win Rate: 42.2%
Avg Gain: -0.30%
Avg Winner: +2.41%
Avg Loser: -2.35%
Best: +13.06%
Worst: -12.16%
Trades: 179/238

60MIN

Win Rate: 44.1%
Avg Gain: -0.31%
Avg Winner: +2.88%
Avg Loser: -2.87%
Best: +12.43%
Worst: -13.23%
Trades: 187/233

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 74.3%
Avg Gain: +1049.26%
Avg Winner: +1413.76%
Avg Loser: -4.31%
Best: +2383.47%
Worst: -14.93%
Trades: 315/104

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.72%
Best MFE: +25.21%
Avg Time to MFE: 110 min

On average, SPCE alerts reach +3.72% profit potential within 110 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.55%
Worst MAE: -7.94%
Avg Time to MAE: 13 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.55%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.4:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.4x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 424 alerts, SPCE typically reaches +3.72% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 424
Gap Up % 31.1%
Avg Gap -0.22%
Best Gap +1.75%

🏭 Sector Comparison: TRANSPORTATION SERVICES

How SPCE compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
SPCE: -0.24% Sector: -0.21% -0.03%
EOD Gain
SPCE: +1049.26% Sector: +900.40% +148.86%
Avg MFE
SPCE: +3.72% Sector: +3.46% +0.26%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SPCE alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-22 09:27:05 $5.6 -3.93% -3.58% -2.59% -1.61% -4.11% +0.18% -0.89% -1.61% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:29:32 $5.37 -3.72% -3.07% -4.19% -1.96% +2.23% +6.33% -5.03% -1.30% LOSS
2024-11-12 09:28:13 $7.3 +1.56% +3.29% +2.88% +2.33% -3.29% +5.48% -1.37% +0.96% WIN
2024-11-07 09:26:16 $6.17 +2.51% +5.02% +6.08% +3.08% +1.78% +8.10% - +1.30% WIN
2024-08-05 09:26:20 $5.52 -2.54% -1.63% +1.09% +2.90% +7.61% +9.78% -3.99% -2.17% LOSS
2023-12-29 09:25:00 $2.55 -0.59% -0.40% -0.39% -4.51% +1821.57% +1.18% -0.39% - LOSS
2023-12-28 09:26:00 $2.68 -0.75% -0.04% -0.38% -0.93% -5.22% +0.37% -2.61% -0.37% LOSS
2023-12-27 09:28:00 $2.67 +1.46% +0.09% -0.37% - +1922.47% +2.25% -1.69% -0.37% WIN
2023-12-26 09:27:00 $2.61 -0.43% -0.81% -0.19% +1.27% +1930.65% +3.07% -1.91% - LOSS
2023-12-22 09:26:00 $2.49 -3.01% +1.00% +0.40% +0.55% +1988.35% +6.43% -3.61% -0.80% LOSS
2023-12-21 09:26:00 $2.5 -0.60% -2.40% -1.60% -2.37% +1876.00% +0.40% -2.80% -0.80% LOSS
2023-12-20 09:25:00 $2.56 +1.17% -0.05% -0.78% +0.44% -7.81% +1.76% -1.95% +0.78% WIN
2023-12-19 09:25:00 $2.5 -0.40% +2.60% +3.20% +3.20% +2012.00% +6.00% -1.00% -0.80% LOSS
2023-12-18 09:27:00 $2.54 -3.15% -0.91% -1.18% -3.14% +1844.88% +0.79% -5.12% -2.36% LOSS
2023-12-15 09:28:00 $2.59 +1.58% -0.89% -1.35% -0.77% +1838.22% +2.32% - +0.39% WIN
2023-12-14 09:28:00 $2.48 +3.43% +5.61% +6.09% +8.27% +1964.52% +9.68% -0.40% - WIN
2023-12-13 09:28:00 $2.21 +2.71% +2.71% +1.81% +3.18% +10.86% +11.31% -2.26% +0.45% WIN
2023-12-12 09:25:00 $2.3 -0.43% -1.77% -0.43% -0.87% -3.04% +1.74% -0.43% +1.74% LOSS
2023-12-11 09:25:00 $2.26 +1.33% +3.53% +0.66% +0.89% +2.65% +4.42% -0.89% -0.44% WIN
2023-12-08 09:25:00 $2.22 -0.45% +1.80% +1.35% +3.04% +4.96% +5.41% -2.70% -0.45% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 74.3% Baseline on SPCE

The 74.3% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push SPCE's performance to 75%+.

Optimize SPCE Strategy →

Why Analyze SPCE with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SPCE. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SPCE historically offers an average upside of +3.72% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SPCE Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 74.3%, SPCE shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show SPCE performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +1049.26%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.