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ACHV Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-04-27 → 2023-12-12

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Oct 12, 1995 🔗 www.achievelifesciences.com
💰 Market Cap: $298.1M 👥 Employees: 25
Achieve Life Sciences Inc is a specialty pharmaceutical company committed to advancing cytisinicline as a widely available treatment option to help people battling nicotine addiction. It is an established smoking cessation treatment that has been approved and marketed in Central and Eastern Europe. Achieve's focus is to address the smoking health epidemic through the development and commercialization of cytisinicline. It has one operating segment, dedicated to the development and commercialization of cytisinicline for niceon.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
25.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-10.11%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+3.47%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -4.50%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -4.50%
Best: -2.31%
Worst: -7.11%
Trades: 0/4

15MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -10.11%
Avg Winner: +2.88%
Avg Loser: -14.44%
Best: +2.88%
Worst: -15.31%
Trades: 1/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -12.01%
Avg Winner: +0.82%
Avg Loser: -16.29%
Best: +0.82%
Worst: -17.53%
Trades: 1/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -8.94%
Avg Winner: +2.88%
Avg Loser: -12.89%
Best: +2.88%
Worst: -17.90%
Trades: 1/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -11.29%
Avg Winner: +1.09%
Avg Loser: -15.42%
Best: +1.09%
Worst: -21.69%
Trades: 1/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.47%
Best MFE: +7.00%
Avg Time to MFE: 95 min

On average, ACHV alerts reach +3.47% profit potential within 95 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -7.01%
Worst MAE: -23.53%
Avg Time to MAE: 6 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 7.01%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.49:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, ACHV typically reaches +3.47% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -1.99%
Best Gap -1.27%

🏭 Sector Comparison: IN VITRO & IN VIVO DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES

How ACHV compares to 13 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ACHV: -4.50% Sector: -0.64% -3.87%
EOD Gain
ACHV: -11.29% Sector: +794.58% -805.88%
Avg MFE
ACHV: +3.47% Sector: +12.24% -8.78%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ACHV alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-12-12 09:26:00 $3.94 -7.11% -13.71% -14.59% -17.90% -20.05% - - -1.27% LOSS
2023-05-23 09:27:00 $7.93 -5.30% -14.31% -17.53% -12.45% -21.69% +0.76% - -1.64% LOSS
2022-11-15 09:25:00 $2.43 -3.29% +2.88% +0.82% +2.88% -4.53% +7.00% -4.53% -3.29% LOSS
2022-04-27 09:25:00 $7.35 -2.31% -15.31% -16.73% -8.31% +1.09% +6.12% -23.53% -1.77% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ ACHV Shows Negative Expectancy

With 25.0% win rate and -10.11% average gain, ACHV alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider ACHV for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze ACHV with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ACHV. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ACHV historically offers an average upside of +3.47% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ACHV Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 25.0%, ACHV shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests ACHV may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: ACHV shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -10.11%). This suggests ACHV is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.