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SPXS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 759 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3x Shares
📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Nov 05, 2008
📊
759
Total Alerts
🎯
47.8%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.02%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+1.95%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 41.2%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.24%
Avg Loser: -0.28%
Best: +1.06%
Worst: -1.28%
Trades: 312/417

15MIN

Win Rate: 45.6%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.52%
Avg Loser: -0.50%
Best: +2.40%
Worst: -2.89%
Trades: 345/392

30MIN

Win Rate: 47.0%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.68%
Avg Loser: -0.69%
Best: +3.85%
Worst: -3.78%
Trades: 356/394

60MIN

Win Rate: 47.8%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.95%
Avg Loser: -0.92%
Best: +6.32%
Worst: -4.76%
Trades: 362/389

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 44.3%
Avg Gain: -0.08%
Avg Winner: +2.19%
Avg Loser: -1.97%
Best: +10.23%
Worst: -13.39%
Trades: 335/404

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.95%
Best MFE: +10.70%
Avg Time to MFE: 167 min

On average, SPXS alerts reach +1.95% profit potential within 167 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.71%
Worst MAE: -4.48%
Avg Time to MAE: 34 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.71%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.75:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.75x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 759 alerts, SPXS typically reaches +1.95% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 759
Gap Up % 36.0%
Avg Gap -0.01%
Best Gap +0.70%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SPXS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:25:26 $5.63 -0.14% -0.00% -0.18% -0.27% - +0.53% -0.53% - LOSS
2025-02-13 09:29:01 $5.78 - - -0.17% -0.76% -2.77% +0.69% -0.35% - -
2025-02-12 09:29:24 $5.92 -0.00% -0.63% -0.99% -0.93% -2.03% +0.51% - - LOSS
2025-02-11 09:26:16 $5.84 -0.43% -0.68% -0.68% -0.77% -1.54% - -0.00% -0.17% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:27:54 $5.79 +0.08% +0.35% +0.34% -0.35% -0.52% +0.69% -0.17% - WIN
2025-02-07 09:26:03 $5.7 -0.09% -0.00% -0.53% +0.96% +3.16% +3.51% -0.53% - LOSS
2025-02-06 09:28:54 $5.72 +0.19% +0.19% +0.44% +0.61% -0.17% +1.75% - +0.17% WIN
2025-02-05 09:27:45 $5.88 -0.00% -0.19% +0.32% +0.09% -1.87% +0.94% -0.34% -0.17% LOSS
2025-02-04 09:26:40 $5.97 -0.25% -0.50% -0.80% -1.68% -2.35% +0.17% -0.34% -0.17% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:28:01 $6.13 -0.93% -0.98% -0.24% -1.63% -2.77% +0.65% -1.31% -0.33% LOSS
2025-01-31 09:25:56 $5.68 -0.18% -0.35% -0.38% -0.88% +2.64% +3.17% -1.41% -0.18% LOSS
2025-01-30 09:28:42 $5.77 +0.17% -0.26% -0.52% +0.69% -0.52% +1.56% -1.04% -0.17% WIN
2025-01-29 09:28:24 $5.77 +0.17% +0.53% +0.26% +0.52% +0.87% +2.25% -0.17% +0.17% WIN
2025-01-28 09:26:36 $5.86 +0.68% +1.19% +0.92% -0.94% -2.05% +1.71% -0.17% - WIN
2025-01-27 09:26:04 $6.03 -1.25% -1.49% -1.74% -1.61% -2.49% - -0.17% -0.17% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:27:40 $5.61 -0.02% -0.26% -0.18% +0.17% +0.71% +1.43% -0.59% -0.18% LOSS
2025-01-23 09:28:48 $5.71 -0.09% -0.35% -0.18% -0.06% -1.93% +0.18% -0.17% - LOSS
2025-01-22 09:26:29 $5.71 -0.02% +0.13% -0.35% -0.52% -0.35% +0.18% -0.35% -0.18% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:28:44 $5.86 -0.17% - -0.17% +0.09% -1.37% +1.02% -0.51% -0.17% LOSS
2025-01-17 09:29:09 $5.96 +0.42% +0.50% +0.42% +0.02% -0.34% +0.84% -0.17% - WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ SPXS Shows Negative Expectancy

With 47.8% win rate and -0.02% average gain, SPXS alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider SPXS for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze SPXS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SPXS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SPXS historically offers an average upside of +1.95% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SPXS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 47.8%, SPXS shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests SPXS may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: SPXS shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.02%). This suggests SPXS is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.