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AHH Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 3 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-07 → 2024-10-14

⚠️ Small sample size (3 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. REAL ESTATE (SIC 6500)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: May 08, 2013 🔗 www.armadahoffler.com
💰 Market Cap: $552.3M 👥 Employees: 148
Armada Hoffler Properties Inc is a real estate company. It engages in developing, building, owning and managing the high-quality, institutional-grade office, retail, and multifamily properties in various markets throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern United States. It lease its properties under operating leases and recognize base rents. It also recognize revenue from tenant recoveries, through which tenants reimburses the company for expenses paid by them such as utilities, janitorial, repairs and maintenance. The company's operating segment includes office real estate, retail real estate, multifamily residential real estate, and general contracting, real estate financing and real estate services. It generates maximum revenue from the retail real estate segment.
📊
3
Total Alerts
🎯
33.3%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.41%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+0.80%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.41%
Avg Winner: +1.14%
Avg Loser: -1.18%
Best: +1.14%
Worst: -2.16%
Trades: 1/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.63%
Avg Winner: +1.19%
Avg Loser: -1.55%
Best: +1.19%
Worst: -2.39%
Trades: 1/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.88%
Avg Winner: +0.92%
Avg Loser: -1.78%
Best: +0.92%
Worst: -2.07%
Trades: 1/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.82%
Avg Winner: +0.55%
Avg Loser: -1.51%
Best: +0.55%
Worst: -1.74%
Trades: 1/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.88%
Avg Winner: +0.54%
Avg Loser: -1.59%
Best: +0.54%
Worst: -2.07%
Trades: 1/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.80%
Best MFE: +2.01%
Avg Time to MFE: 139 min

On average, AHH alerts reach +0.80% profit potential within 139 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.60%
Worst MAE: -2.52%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.60%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.5:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 3 alerts, AHH typically reaches +0.80% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 3
Gap Up % 66.7%
Avg Gap -0.40%
Best Gap +0.37%

🏭 Sector Comparison: REAL ESTATE

How AHH compares to 14 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AHH: -0.41% Sector: -0.30% -0.11%
EOD Gain
AHH: -0.88% Sector: +499.57% -500.45%
Avg MFE
AHH: +0.80% Sector: +8.13% -7.34%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AHH alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-10-14 09:25:31 $11.09 -2.16% -2.39% -2.07% -1.74% -2.07% -0.90% -2.52% -1.71% LOSS
2024-09-26 09:29:37 $10.92 +1.14% +1.19% +0.92% +0.55% -1.10% +2.01% -0.18% +0.37% WIN
2022-01-07 09:25:00 $14.89 -0.20% -0.71% -1.48% -1.28% +0.54% +1.28% -2.08% +0.13% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ AHH Shows Negative Expectancy

With 33.3% win rate and -0.41% average gain, AHH alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider AHH for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze AHH with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AHH. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AHH historically offers an average upside of +0.80% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AHH Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 33.3%, AHH shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests AHH may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: AHH shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.41%). This suggests AHH is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.