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AKBA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 148 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-14 → 2024-12-09

🏢 Company Profile

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS (SIC 2834)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Mar 20, 2014 🔗 www.akebia.com
💰 Market Cap: $360.9M 👥 Employees: 181
Akebia Therapeutics Inc is a fully integrated biopharmaceutical company. The Company's operating segment is the business of developing and commercializing novel therapeutics for people with kidney disease. The current portfolio of the company includes Auryxia (ferric citrate), a medicine approved and marketed in the United States for the control of serum phosphorus levels in adult patients with dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease and the treatment of iron deficiency anemia, in adult patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease, Vafseo (vadadustat), an oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase, inhibitor approved in Japan for the treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease, in adult patients, HIF-PH inhibitors in preclinical development.
📊
148
Total Alerts
🎯
43.2%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.18%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+5.17%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 43.2%
Avg Gain: -0.18%
Avg Winner: +1.60%
Avg Loser: -1.64%
Best: +11.87%
Worst: -7.21%
Trades: 64/79

15MIN

Win Rate: 41.9%
Avg Gain: -0.46%
Avg Winner: +2.63%
Avg Loser: -2.79%
Best: +12.71%
Worst: -13.72%
Trades: 62/83

30MIN

Win Rate: 40.8%
Avg Gain: -0.74%
Avg Winner: +2.48%
Avg Loser: -3.06%
Best: +14.37%
Worst: -9.90%
Trades: 60/84

60MIN

Win Rate: 37.2%
Avg Gain: -0.83%
Avg Winner: +3.91%
Avg Loser: -3.71%
Best: +16.02%
Worst: -12.67%
Trades: 55/91

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 41.2%
Avg Gain: -0.91%
Avg Winner: +5.73%
Avg Loser: -5.62%
Best: +20.27%
Worst: -64.72%
Trades: 61/86

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.17%
Best MFE: +28.35%
Avg Time to MFE: 122 min

On average, AKBA alerts reach +5.17% profit potential within 122 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.17%
Worst MAE: -11.12%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.17%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.39:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.39x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 148 alerts, AKBA typically reaches +5.17% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 148
Gap Up % 46.6%
Avg Gap -0.03%
Best Gap +6.78%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

How AKBA compares to 381 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AKBA: -0.20% Sector: -0.32% +0.12%
EOD Gain
AKBA: -0.93% Sector: +4480411.22% -4480412.15%
Avg MFE
AKBA: +5.16% Sector: +7.56% -2.40%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AKBA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-09 09:29:38 $2.06 +0.49% -0.03% +0.73% - -0.97% +1.21% -0.49% -0.49% WIN
2024-11-07 09:27:45 $1.75 -3.46% -0.63% -1.78% +2.33% +6.57% +9.14% -4.57% -0.57% LOSS
2024-10-23 09:25:38 $1.7 -2.35% -4.12% -3.54% -4.12% -6.47% -0.59% -0.59% -0.59% LOSS
2024-08-16 09:29:54 $1.41 +0.71% +2.48% +2.84% +1.42% +2.13% +3.55% - +0.71% WIN
2024-08-08 09:27:50 $1.14 -1.75% -2.19% -1.75% +1.32% +4.39% +7.02% -6.14% +1.75% LOSS
2024-07-16 09:27:43 $1.33 +3.01% +2.63% +0.59% -0.38% +6.77% +9.77% -1.50% +1.50% WIN
2024-07-11 09:28:07 $1.12 +0.45% +0.08% -1.79% -2.23% +13.39% +13.39% -3.57% +2.68% WIN
2023-11-17 09:26:00 $1.04 -0.82% -0.07% -3.85% -3.85% -3.85% +0.82% -1.92% -1.92% LOSS
2023-11-08 09:27:00 $1.03 -4.37% - -0.87% -0.49% -6.80% +3.88% -7.55% - LOSS
2023-10-25 09:26:00 $0.86 -1.61% -2.78% -3.00% -4.38% -7.41% +1.83% -1.62% -1.62% LOSS
2023-08-28 09:25:00 $1.22 +0.66% +4.92% +1.64% +11.48% +13.11% +19.67% - +0.82% WIN
2023-08-25 09:27:00 $1.28 +0.78% +0.78% -7.03% -9.38% -10.16% +3.12% -4.69% -3.91% WIN
2023-07-18 09:28:00 $1.18 -0.85% +2.54% +0.01% +4.24% -0.85% +4.24% -1.69% -1.69% LOSS
2023-06-29 09:27:00 $0.94 -1.06% -1.62% -0.15% -0.09% -1.55% +1.03% -2.39% -1.55% LOSS
2023-06-20 09:26:00 $1.16 -3.45% -2.16% -2.16% -3.02% -2.59% -1.72% -4.31% -3.45% LOSS
2023-05-31 09:28:00 $1.11 -7.21% -11.80% -9.90% -10.82% -6.31% +1.80% -0.90% +0.45% LOSS
2023-05-30 09:28:00 $1.18 +11.87% +12.71% +11.44% +7.67% -18.76% +18.64% - +6.78% WIN
2023-05-25 09:25:00 $1.37 -0.73% -9.49% -4.39% -8.15% -11.68% +2.19% +1.46% +1.46% LOSS
2023-05-22 09:29:00 $1.27 +7.39% +3.16% +6.29% +11.02% +11.02% +28.35% -0.79% -0.79% WIN
2023-05-11 09:28:00 $0.99 +5.05% +7.07% +4.55% +6.06% +7.07% +9.09% +3.03% +5.05% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ AKBA Shows Negative Expectancy

With 43.2% win rate and -0.18% average gain, AKBA alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider AKBA for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze AKBA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AKBA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AKBA historically offers an average upside of +5.17% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AKBA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 43.2%, AKBA shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests AKBA may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: AKBA shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.18%). This suggests AKBA is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.