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AMH Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 8 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-20 → 2025-01-24

⚠️ Small sample size (8 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Aug 01, 2013 🔗 www.amh.com
💰 Market Cap: $11.87B 👥 Employees: 1,730
American Homes 4 Rent is a real estate investment trust focused on acquiring, operating, and leasing single-family homes as rental properties throughout the United States. The company's real estate portfolio is largely comprised of single-family properties in urban markets in the Southern and Midwestern regions of the U.S. American Homes 4 Rent's land holdings also represent a sizable percentage of its total assets in terms of value. The company derives the vast majority of its income in the form of rental revenue from single-family properties through short-term or annual leases. The firm's geographical markets include Dallas, Texas; Indianapolis, Indiana; Atlanta, Georgia; and Charlotte, North Carolina in terms of the number of properties in each.
📊
8
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-0.65%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+0.23%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.87%
Avg Winner: +0.12%
Avg Loser: -1.20%
Best: +0.19%
Worst: -3.19%
Trades: 2/6

15MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.71%
Avg Winner: +0.57%
Avg Loser: -1.14%
Best: +0.63%
Worst: -2.85%
Trades: 2/6

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.65%
Avg Winner: +0.45%
Avg Loser: -1.75%
Best: +1.03%
Worst: -3.01%
Trades: 4/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.59%
Avg Winner: +1.06%
Avg Loser: -1.13%
Best: +1.50%
Worst: -2.97%
Trades: 2/6

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 12.5%
Avg Gain: -0.97%
Avg Winner: +1.33%
Avg Loser: -1.29%
Best: +1.33%
Worst: -2.77%
Trades: 1/7

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.23%
Best MFE: +1.81%
Avg Time to MFE: 156 min

On average, AMH alerts reach +0.23% profit potential within 156 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.29%
Worst MAE: -3.32%
Avg Time to MAE: 26 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.29%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.18:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 8 alerts, AMH typically reaches +0.23% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 8
Gap Up % 25.0%
Avg Gap -0.75%
Best Gap +0.35%

🏭 Sector Comparison: REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS

How AMH compares to 118 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AMH: -0.87% Sector: -0.14% -0.73%
EOD Gain
AMH: -0.97% Sector: +296893.71% -296894.68%
Avg MFE
AMH: +0.23% Sector: +2.11% -1.88%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AMH alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-24 09:26:43 $35.12 -1.40% -1.59% -1.54% -1.24% -1.48% -0.03% -0.28% -0.63% LOSS
2024-12-06 09:28:29 $37.41 +0.19% -0.13% +0.05% -0.11% -0.40% +0.52% -0.24% -0.03% WIN
2024-11-18 09:26:28 $37.6 -0.41% -0.03% +0.08% -0.11% -0.43% +0.88% -0.69% -0.27% LOSS
2024-03-08 09:27:14 $37.9 -3.19% -2.85% -3.01% -2.97% -2.77% -2.43% -3.32% -2.98% LOSS
2022-04-07 09:25:00 $40.5 -0.04% +0.52% +0.62% +0.62% +1.33% +1.68% -0.47% +0.17% LOSS
2022-03-21 09:25:00 $40.14 -1.25% -1.39% -1.62% -1.64% -2.37% -0.97% -1.82% -1.82% LOSS
2022-02-04 09:25:00 $39.58 -0.91% -0.83% -0.83% -0.73% -0.58% +0.40% -2.02% -0.78% LOSS
2022-01-20 09:25:00 $39.75 +0.05% +0.63% +1.03% +1.50% -1.03% +1.81% -1.51% +0.35% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ AMH Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.65% average gain, AMH alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider AMH for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze AMH with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AMH. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AMH historically offers an average upside of +0.23% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AMH Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, AMH shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests AMH may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: AMH shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.65%). This suggests AMH is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.