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Latest signal:

APLS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 35 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-24 → 2024-11-05

⚠️ Small sample size (35 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS (SIC 2834)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Nov 09, 2017 🔗 www.apellis.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.75B 👥 Employees: 710
Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel therapeutic compounds to treat diseases with high unmet needs through the inhibition of the complement system, which is an integral component of the immune system, at the level of C3, the central protein in the complement cascade.
📊
35
Total Alerts
🎯
51.4%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.02%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+4.71%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 51.4%
Avg Gain: +0.02%
Avg Winner: +1.94%
Avg Loser: -2.13%
Best: +5.65%
Worst: -9.05%
Trades: 18/16

15MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -0.52%
Avg Winner: +3.17%
Avg Loser: -3.28%
Best: +7.61%
Worst: -14.98%
Trades: 15/20

30MIN

Win Rate: 45.7%
Avg Gain: -0.92%
Avg Winner: +2.75%
Avg Loser: -4.01%
Best: +7.30%
Worst: -19.74%
Trades: 16/19

60MIN

Win Rate: 45.7%
Avg Gain: -0.72%
Avg Winner: +3.70%
Avg Loser: -4.69%
Best: +8.91%
Worst: -16.68%
Trades: 16/18

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 45.7%
Avg Gain: -1.26%
Avg Winner: +5.23%
Avg Loser: -6.73%
Best: +15.42%
Worst: -26.57%
Trades: 16/19

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.71%
Best MFE: +18.94%
Avg Time to MFE: 92 min

On average, APLS alerts reach +4.71% profit potential within 92 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.67%
Worst MAE: -6.11%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.67%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.81:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.81x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 35 alerts, APLS typically reaches +4.71% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 35
Gap Up % 57.1%
Avg Gap +0.10%
Best Gap +2.00%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

How APLS compares to 381 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
APLS: +0.02% Sector: -0.32% +0.34%
EOD Gain
APLS: -1.26% Sector: +4480411.22% -4480412.48%
Avg MFE
APLS: +4.71% Sector: +7.56% -2.85%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical APLS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-05 09:25:55 $25.4 +1.97% -0.16% +0.39% -2.28% +10.53% +11.53% -4.17% - WIN
2024-09-27 09:26:04 $29.92 +0.70% +0.84% -0.74% - -1.50% +1.64% - +0.80% WIN
2024-09-20 09:29:30 $34.01 -2.19% -2.76% +1.18% -2.29% -4.41% +1.72% -4.23% -0.03% LOSS
2024-08-22 09:25:45 $40.19 +0.25% +1.02% +0.09% -1.49% -2.61% +1.17% - +0.57% WIN
2024-08-08 09:28:31 $36.1 -3.60% -1.11% -2.99% -5.10% +4.32% +6.51% -5.12% +1.11% LOSS
2024-04-03 09:28:56 $55.6 -0.85% -0.50% -0.25% +0.34% +2.43% +3.40% -0.87% -0.36% LOSS
2023-12-14 09:28:00 $53.08 -3.62% -7.08% -7.16% -6.44% -1.70% +0.41% -2.41% +0.36% LOSS
2023-11-01 09:29:00 $46.0 +5.65% +7.61% +7.30% +6.16% +8.48% +10.87% -0.54% +0.17% WIN
2023-10-06 09:26:00 $40.9 +3.54% +4.15% +2.54% +0.71% +0.32% +5.89% -0.81% -0.81% WIN
2023-10-05 09:29:00 $36.6 +3.48% +2.14% +4.48% +8.91% +8.31% +11.12% -0.33% -0.16% WIN
2023-09-19 09:28:00 $51.25 -2.15% -3.80% -4.16% -4.55% -5.76% +0.57% -0.78% -0.49% LOSS
2023-09-15 09:25:00 $45.24 +0.57% -0.91% -0.84% -0.23% -1.77% +3.87% -1.59% +0.22% WIN
2023-08-23 09:29:00 $39.6 +2.32% +4.48% +4.33% +8.03% +1.11% +8.86% -0.88% +0.34% WIN
2023-08-14 09:26:00 $33.3 +2.64% -0.06% -0.41% -1.43% +1.77% +4.23% -1.65% -1.05% WIN
2023-08-07 09:29:00 $20.49 -1.42% -1.22% -0.49% +7.15% +15.42% +18.94% -3.22% +0.05% LOSS
2023-08-02 09:29:00 $24.05 -0.15% +3.97% -0.87% -3.78% -0.37% +5.20% -1.37% +0.29% LOSS
2023-08-01 09:29:00 $25.37 +1.40% -1.69% +0.55% -3.94% -4.53% +1.89% -2.72% -0.04% WIN
2023-07-31 09:29:00 $31.39 -9.05% -9.21% -13.57% -16.44% -17.97% +0.67% - +0.13% LOSS
2023-07-24 09:25:00 $34.88 -1.52% -4.26% -5.71% -3.12% -7.63% -1.09% -6.11% -1.89% LOSS
2023-07-19 09:28:00 $39.9 -1.13% -0.71% -0.88% +0.53% +1.48% +5.21% -3.51% -0.05% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 51.4% Baseline on APLS

The 51.4% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push APLS's performance to 75%+.

Optimize APLS Strategy →

Why Analyze APLS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for APLS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, APLS historically offers an average upside of +4.71% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 APLS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 51.4%, APLS shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show APLS performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.02%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.