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APLT Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 40 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-01-06

⚠️ Small sample size (40 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Applied Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS (SIC 2834)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: May 13, 2019 🔗 www.appliedtherapeutics.com
💰 Market Cap: $15.1M 👥 Employees: 28
Applied Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, developing a pipeline of novel product candidates against validated molecular targets in indications of high unmet medical need. The company's drug compounds pipeline includes AT-007 which is a novel central nervous system, penetrant ARI that it is developing for the treatment of rare metabolic diseases, including Galactosemia and Sorbitol Dehydrogenase (SORD) Deficiency, AT-001 for the treatment of diabetic cardiomyopathy, and AT-003 for the treatment of diabetic retinopathy.
📊
40
Total Alerts
🎯
45.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.03%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+7.72%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 45.0%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +2.80%
Avg Loser: -2.71%
Best: +11.06%
Worst: -9.64%
Trades: 18/19

15MIN

Win Rate: 37.5%
Avg Gain: -0.13%
Avg Winner: +5.83%
Avg Loser: -3.87%
Best: +20.11%
Worst: -15.60%
Trades: 15/24

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -1.35%
Avg Winner: +4.36%
Avg Loser: -4.38%
Best: +16.13%
Worst: -17.47%
Trades: 13/25

60MIN

Win Rate: 30.0%
Avg Gain: -1.41%
Avg Winner: +5.82%
Avg Loser: -4.68%
Best: +20.43%
Worst: -15.96%
Trades: 12/27

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 38.5%
Avg Gain: -1.38%
Avg Winner: +8.09%
Avg Loser: -7.30%
Best: +22.45%
Worst: -22.93%
Trades: 15/24

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +7.72%
Best MFE: +37.41%
Avg Time to MFE: 130 min

On average, APLT alerts reach +7.72% profit potential within 130 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.91%
Worst MAE: -14.22%
Avg Time to MAE: 16 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.91%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.97:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 40 alerts, APLT typically reaches +7.72% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 6.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 40
Gap Up % 35.0%
Avg Gap -0.37%
Best Gap +4.00%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

How APLT compares to 381 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
APLT: +0.07% Sector: -0.32% +0.38%
EOD Gain
APLT: -1.60% Sector: +4480411.22% -4480412.82%
Avg MFE
APLT: +7.88% Sector: +7.56% +0.33%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical APLT alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-06 09:29:53 $0.96 -2.27% -2.24% -3.09% -3.12% -8.95% - -4.17% - LOSS
2025-01-02 09:29:21 $0.91 -2.60% -5.60% -2.92% -0.91% -1.11% +7.78% -7.50% +0.19% LOSS
2024-12-24 09:26:39 $0.86 +0.29% -3.41% -6.57% -1.25% -0.64% +2.67% -6.58% -2.70% WIN
2024-12-23 09:26:39 $0.86 -1.77% -5.38% -2.70% -2.64% +0.74% +1.87% -9.33% -1.16% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:26:13 $0.95 -1.78% -3.26% -6.68% -8.87% -7.36% +4.22% -1.05% - LOSS
2024-12-13 09:28:34 $1.14 -0.44% +0.44% +0.86% -2.53% +0.88% +2.63% -2.63% -2.63% LOSS
2024-12-12 09:28:23 $1.23 +1.63% +2.57% -0.41% +2.03% -7.32% +11.38% -1.63% +0.81% WIN
2024-12-11 09:25:33 $1.18 +0.42% +3.39% +1.27% +0.42% +5.08% +6.78% -1.69% -0.82% WIN
2024-12-09 09:26:43 $1.26 +3.17% +5.16% +10.20% +6.19% -1.59% +11.11% -1.59% -0.79% WIN
2024-12-06 09:27:33 $1.3 -2.33% -2.31% -2.69% -2.32% -1.54% +2.31% -9.23% -1.54% LOSS
2024-12-05 09:28:01 $1.37 -1.82% -1.46% -4.01% -2.92% -5.84% +3.65% -5.84% - LOSS
2024-12-04 09:29:34 $1.66 -9.64% -15.60% -17.47% -15.96% -16.87% -0.60% -8.43% -1.81% LOSS
2024-12-03 09:26:57 $1.73 -2.31% -2.02% -0.58% -2.02% -2.31% +1.73% - +0.58% LOSS
2024-12-02 09:27:25 $2.04 +0.25% -3.94% -7.37% -8.82% -14.22% +2.45% -0.49% +0.25% WIN
2024-11-29 09:28:36 $2.18 -2.67% -1.61% +1.26% +4.82% -6.88% +11.93% -5.96% - LOSS
2024-09-19 09:26:06 $7.94 +0.13% +0.76% +3.27% +5.51% +0.76% +11.70% -1.26% +2.02% WIN
2024-09-18 09:27:43 $6.51 +10.14% +14.38% +16.13% +20.43% +20.58% +29.23% -0.77% - WIN
2024-03-11 09:29:53 $5.97 +11.06% +8.54% +3.52% +6.51% +6.20% +12.06% -1.34% -0.34% WIN
2024-02-28 09:26:41 $8.08 +0.01% +9.53% -3.96% -1.52% -8.42% +16.21% -3.96% - WIN
2024-02-22 09:29:24 $5.58 +2.63% -2.33% +0.54% -0.54% +0.36% +5.73% -3.94% -3.40% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ APLT Shows Negative Expectancy

With 45.0% win rate and -0.03% average gain, APLT alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider APLT for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze APLT with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for APLT. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, APLT historically offers an average upside of +7.72% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 APLT Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 45.0%, APLT shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests APLT may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: APLT shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.03%). This suggests APLT is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.