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AUPH Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 30 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-24 → 2024-02-15

⚠️ Small sample size (30 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS (SIC 2834)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Oct 21, 2009 🔗 www.auriniapharma.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.92B 👥 Employees: 300
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company focused on delivering therapies to people living with autoimmune diseases with high unmet medical needs. The company developed LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), the first FDA-approved oral therapy for the treatment of adult patients with active lupus nephritis. It is also developing AUR200, a dual inhibitor of B cell activating factor (BAFF) and a proliferation-inducing ligand (APRIL), for the potential treatment of autoimmune diseases.
📊
30
Total Alerts
🎯
40.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.64%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+4.72%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.64%
Avg Winner: +2.03%
Avg Loser: -2.41%
Best: +4.91%
Worst: -8.57%
Trades: 12/18

15MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.96%
Avg Winner: +2.80%
Avg Loser: -2.99%
Best: +5.43%
Worst: -6.89%
Trades: 10/19

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.43%
Avg Winner: +4.57%
Avg Loser: -2.92%
Best: +12.70%
Worst: -7.44%
Trades: 10/20

60MIN

Win Rate: 36.7%
Avg Gain: -0.55%
Avg Winner: +4.86%
Avg Loser: -3.69%
Best: +11.86%
Worst: -7.71%
Trades: 11/19

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 36.7%
Avg Gain: +0.14%
Avg Winner: +6.97%
Avg Loser: -4.03%
Best: +17.27%
Worst: -10.82%
Trades: 11/18

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.72%
Best MFE: +18.00%
Avg Time to MFE: 109 min

On average, AUPH alerts reach +4.72% profit potential within 109 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.57%
Worst MAE: -8.46%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.57%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.84:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 30 alerts, AUPH typically reaches +4.72% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 30
Gap Up % 33.3%
Avg Gap -0.44%
Best Gap +1.96%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

How AUPH compares to 381 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AUPH: -0.64% Sector: -0.32% -0.32%
EOD Gain
AUPH: +0.14% Sector: +4480411.22% -4480411.08%
Avg MFE
AUPH: +4.72% Sector: +7.56% -2.84%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AUPH alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-02-15 09:26:03 $6.02 -0.33% -6.89% -3.24% -1.41% - +2.99% -1.83% -0.33% LOSS
2023-09-21 09:26:00 $8.6 -4.55% -4.59% -4.07% -1.10% -3.84% -0.12% -4.88% -3.72% LOSS
2023-09-19 09:29:00 $8.5 -1.53% -5.76% -3.16% -3.00% +0.71% +1.53% -6.24% -1.29% LOSS
2023-09-12 09:28:00 $9.72 -2.37% -2.47% -2.57% -4.22% -6.17% -1.13% -1.54% -1.23% LOSS
2023-08-03 09:27:00 $10.2 +2.23% +3.92% +6.86% +7.16% +3.53% +9.31% -1.08% +1.96% WIN
2023-06-30 09:25:00 $10.44 -2.30% -4.24% -3.50% -6.27% -7.28% +0.77% -0.38% -0.67% LOSS
2023-05-04 09:29:00 $11.84 -8.57% -4.98% -2.87% -6.84% -4.22% +0.51% -3.72% +0.08% LOSS
2023-04-05 09:29:00 $10.48 -0.10% +1.34% +1.81% -2.28% -4.77% +2.48% -2.58% -1.24% LOSS
2023-03-09 09:29:00 $9.95 -1.31% -2.11% +0.50% +1.61% -4.22% +4.82% -3.02% -0.20% LOSS
2023-01-25 09:28:00 $8.8 +0.80% -1.25% -1.46% -3.75% +2.84% +3.24% -5.80% +0.91% WIN
2023-01-06 09:27:00 $7.35 +2.72% +1.36% -2.31% +0.14% +2.72% +6.12% -4.35% -1.36% WIN
2023-01-04 09:28:00 $6.04 -2.73% -0.91% +1.74% +5.07% +11.26% +14.57% -3.48% +0.25% LOSS
2023-01-03 09:29:00 $5.65 +4.91% +4.60% -0.35% +5.22% +5.13% +9.91% -1.59% -0.18% WIN
2022-12-14 09:25:00 $4.69 +0.94% +0.32% -0.32% +0.96% -0.43% +2.24% -0.64% +0.43% WIN
2022-11-10 09:25:00 $5.44 -1.84% +2.39% +1.10% -0.28% -2.21% +3.77% -3.49% -1.84% LOSS
2022-11-04 09:25:00 $5.26 -4.56% -5.70% -5.47% -3.90% -2.09% +0.98% -8.46% -0.19% LOSS
2022-11-03 09:25:00 $5.55 -3.42% -1.24% -6.31% -3.78% -6.67% +0.90% - -0.90% LOSS
2022-09-29 09:25:00 $7.73 -1.03% -1.36% -2.01% -3.10% -3.62% -0.65% -4.14% -3.36% LOSS
2022-08-04 09:25:00 $8.59 +2.68% +3.50% +9.84% +7.28% -0.81% +14.78% -0.47% -0.47% WIN
2022-07-27 09:25:00 $7.9 +1.65% -1.52% +1.46% +7.72% +8.61% +10.38% -2.53% +1.01% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ AUPH Shows Negative Expectancy

With 40.0% win rate and -0.64% average gain, AUPH alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider AUPH for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze AUPH with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AUPH. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AUPH historically offers an average upside of +4.72% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AUPH Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 40.0%, AUPH shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests AUPH may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: AUPH shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.64%). This suggests AUPH is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.