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AXL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 7 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-11-04 → 2025-02-14

⚠️ Small sample size (7 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS & ACCESSORIES (SIC 3714)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jan 29, 1999 🔗 www.aam.com
💰 Market Cap: $982.8M 👥 Employees: 19,000
American Axle & Mfg Holdings Inc is engaged in manufacturing, engineering, designing, and validation of driveline systems and related components and chassis modules for light trucks, SUVs, crossover vehicles, passenger cars, and commercial vehicles. The company's segment includes Driveline and Metal Forming. It generates maximum revenue from the Driveline segment.
📊
7
Total Alerts
🎯
42.9%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.20%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.87%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -0.20%
Avg Winner: +2.28%
Avg Loser: -2.05%
Best: +4.81%
Worst: -4.03%
Trades: 3/4

15MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -0.60%
Avg Winner: +1.37%
Avg Loser: -2.09%
Best: +3.47%
Worst: -4.10%
Trades: 3/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -1.45%
Avg Winner: +1.63%
Avg Loser: -3.76%
Best: +3.38%
Worst: -7.34%
Trades: 3/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 28.6%
Avg Gain: -2.23%
Avg Winner: +1.71%
Avg Loser: -3.80%
Best: +2.72%
Worst: -10.59%
Trades: 2/5

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 28.6%
Avg Gain: -1.85%
Avg Winner: +3.67%
Avg Loser: -5.07%
Best: +6.78%
Worst: -12.98%
Trades: 2/4

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.87%
Best MFE: +6.94%
Avg Time to MFE: 125 min

On average, AXL alerts reach +2.87% profit potential within 125 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.81%
Worst MAE: -4.82%
Avg Time to MAE: 13 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.81%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.59:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 7 alerts, AXL typically reaches +2.87% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 7
Gap Up % 57.1%
Avg Gap -0.10%
Best Gap +2.76%

🏭 Sector Comparison: MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS & ACCESSORIES

How AXL compares to 18 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AXL: -0.20% Sector: -0.68% +0.48%
EOD Gain
AXL: -1.85% Sector: +576.01% -577.86%
Avg MFE
AXL: +2.87% Sector: +7.31% -4.43%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AXL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:28:57 $5.31 -1.13% -0.38% -1.04% -3.30% -3.01% +2.17% -3.58% +0.19% LOSS
2025-01-29 09:27:49 $5.33 -1.78% +3.47% +3.38% +2.72% -1.69% +6.94% -2.81% -1.69% LOSS
2024-11-08 09:27:49 $6.34 +4.81% -0.79% +0.95% -0.16% +6.78% +6.94% -1.58% +2.76% WIN
2024-07-09 09:26:29 $6.95 -4.03% -4.10% -4.03% -4.75% -2.59% -1.73% -4.82% -4.03% LOSS
2023-11-24 09:26:00 $7.2 +0.76% +0.28% +0.56% +0.69% +0.56% +1.25% -0.28% -0.28% WIN
2023-08-04 09:26:00 $9.4 -1.28% -3.09% -7.34% -10.59% -12.98% +0.53% +0.53% +0.53% LOSS
2022-11-04 09:25:00 $9.5 +1.26% +0.37% -2.63% -0.21% - +4.00% -0.11% +1.79% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ AXL Shows Negative Expectancy

With 42.9% win rate and -0.20% average gain, AXL alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider AXL for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze AXL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AXL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AXL historically offers an average upside of +2.87% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AXL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 42.9%, AXL shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests AXL may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: AXL shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.20%). This suggests AXL is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.