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AYTU Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 31 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-03 → 2023-04-27

⚠️ Small sample size (31 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

AYTU BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS (SIC 2834)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Feb 15, 2008 🔗 www.aytubio.com
💰 Market Cap: $27.5M 👥 Employees: 83
Aytu BioPharma Inc is a specialty pharmaceutical company with a commercial portfolio of prescription therapeutics and consumer health products. The company's primary prescription products treat attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and other common pediatric conditions. It is building a complementary therapeutic development pipeline, including a prospective treatment (AR101/enzastaurin) for vascular Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome, a rare genetic disease resulting in high morbidity and a significantly shortened lifespan. The company operates one business segment consisting of various prescription pharmaceutical products sold through third parties.
📊
31
Total Alerts
🎯
74.2%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+821.59%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+5.33%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 35.5%
Avg Gain: -0.30%
Avg Winner: +1.64%
Avg Loser: -1.71%
Best: +3.84%
Worst: -5.36%
Trades: 11/16

15MIN

Win Rate: 38.7%
Avg Gain: -0.27%
Avg Winner: +2.77%
Avg Loser: -2.19%
Best: +7.82%
Worst: -11.64%
Trades: 12/19

30MIN

Win Rate: 36.7%
Avg Gain: -1.40%
Avg Winner: +1.73%
Avg Loser: -3.39%
Best: +3.82%
Worst: -20.40%
Trades: 11/18

60MIN

Win Rate: 35.5%
Avg Gain: -1.50%
Avg Winner: +3.13%
Avg Loser: -4.04%
Best: +11.76%
Worst: -21.15%
Trades: 11/20

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 74.2%
Avg Gain: +821.59%
Avg Winner: +1109.45%
Avg Loser: -6.89%
Best: +2034.74%
Worst: -15.00%
Trades: 23/7

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.33%
Best MFE: +19.07%
Avg Time to MFE: 98 min

On average, AYTU alerts reach +5.33% profit potential within 98 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.99%
Worst MAE: -7.14%
Avg Time to MAE: 20 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.99%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.69:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.69x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 31 alerts, AYTU typically reaches +5.33% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 31
Gap Up % 41.9%
Avg Gap -0.27%
Best Gap +3.95%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

How AYTU compares to 381 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AYTU: -0.29% Sector: -0.32% +0.03%
EOD Gain
AYTU: +787.26% Sector: +4480411.22% -4479623.96%
Avg MFE
AYTU: +5.44% Sector: +7.56% -2.12%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AYTU alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-04-27 09:27:00 $2.8 -5.36% -1.79% -6.43% -9.89% -15.00% +1.43% -7.14% -7.14% LOSS
2023-01-05 09:27:00 $0.22 -2.45% -3.18% -1.14% -2.27% +1855.45% - -0.05% -4.32% LOSS
2022-12-21 09:25:00 $0.23 - -0.13% +1.13% +2.96% +1629.57% +6.09% -2.00% -2.00% -
2022-11-30 09:25:00 $0.2 - +7.82% +1.00% +4.90% +1951.00% +9.95% -0.05% - -
2022-11-15 09:25:00 $0.2 +1.98% +4.98% +2.03% +0.69% +1835.64% +11.39% - - WIN
2022-10-04 09:25:00 $0.19 +2.63% +1.21% +1.87% +1.26% +2034.74% +7.37% - - WIN
2022-09-29 09:25:00 $0.19 - -0.05% +0.98% -1.87% +1810.88% +2.95% -4.15% -1.55% -
2022-09-28 09:25:00 $0.19 -2.06% +2.17% +1.64% -0.79% +1.16% +8.52% -4.18% +0.05% LOSS
2022-09-14 09:25:00 $0.22 -0.46% -1.19% -2.70% -2.01% +1840.53% +3.29% -3.02% -0.46% LOSS
2022-08-31 09:25:00 $0.23 -0.83% -2.14% -1.48% -2.48% +1835.62% -0.04% -0.83% -0.26% LOSS
2022-08-30 09:25:00 $0.23 +0.30% -1.25% -0.47% -2.92% +1847.62% +0.90% +0.30% +0.90% WIN
2022-08-29 09:25:00 $0.26 +3.84% +3.99% +2.58% -7.28% -8.77% +7.24% -2.70% +3.95% WIN
2022-08-22 09:25:00 $0.27 - +0.15% -0.96% +0.70% -0.07% +3.33% - +3.33% -
2022-08-16 09:25:00 $0.29 -0.42% -0.83% -0.28% -1.39% +1847.92% +0.69% -0.45% +0.69% LOSS
2022-08-15 09:25:00 $0.29 -1.59% -1.55% -2.31% -0.72% +1879.31% - -0.55% -0.34% LOSS
2022-08-12 09:25:00 $0.28 +2.52% +1.76% +1.72% -0.07% +1.90% +3.34% +2.08% +3.34% WIN
2022-08-11 09:25:00 $0.28 +0.04% +1.00% +1.78% +2.42% +3.67% +4.59% -0.28% +2.31% WIN
2022-08-10 09:25:00 $0.28 -1.00% -1.75% -3.18% -2.43% +0.79% +2.82% -3.54% +2.72% LOSS
2022-08-09 09:25:00 $0.31 +1.14% -2.28% -5.70% -9.93% -8.34% +6.51% -2.28% +1.95% WIN
2022-07-15 09:25:00 $0.61 -0.57% -0.47% - -0.60% +1851.43% +2.05% -2.62% -0.57% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 74.2% Baseline on AYTU

The 74.2% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push AYTU's performance to 75%+.

Optimize AYTU Strategy →

Why Analyze AYTU with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AYTU. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AYTU historically offers an average upside of +5.33% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AYTU Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 74.2%, AYTU shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show AYTU performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +821.59%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.