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BHR Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-07-26 → 2023-11-13

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. Common Stock REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS (SIC 6798)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Nov 06, 2013 🔗 www.bhrreit.com
💰 Market Cap: $199.2M
Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc is a real estate investment trust company that invests in high revenue per available room, or RevPAR, luxury, upper-upscale and upscale hotels in gateway and resort locations. The firm operates in various U.S. states such as California, Texas, Washington, Philadelphia, Florida, and Illinois as well as Washington, D.C. and St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands. The company operates through its direct hotel investment segment of the hotel lodging industry. Its revenue streams include rooms, food and beverage, and other. The firm's hotels operate under various brands, such as Marriott, Hilton, Courtyard, and, among others.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
33.3%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-0.57%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+0.17%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -1.72%
Avg Winner: +0.28%
Avg Loser: -2.39%
Best: +0.28%
Worst: -4.81%
Trades: 1/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -2.07%
Avg Winner: +1.12%
Avg Loser: -3.13%
Best: +1.12%
Worst: -5.53%
Trades: 1/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.57%
Avg Winner: +0.56%
Avg Loser: -1.13%
Best: +0.56%
Worst: -1.28%
Trades: 1/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -1.55%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -2.06%
Best: +0.00%
Worst: -2.56%
Trades: 0/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -4.61%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -4.61%
Best: -0.56%
Worst: -6.59%
Trades: 0/4

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.17%
Best MFE: +1.40%
Avg Time to MFE: 4 min

On average, BHR alerts reach +0.17% profit potential within 4 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.73%
Worst MAE: -1.92%
Avg Time to MAE: 3 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.73%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.23:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, BHR typically reaches +0.17% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 25.0%
Avg Gap -0.25%
Best Gap +0.97%

🏭 Sector Comparison: REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS

How BHR compares to 118 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
BHR: -0.69% Sector: -0.14% -0.55%
EOD Gain
BHR: -4.22% Sector: +296893.71% -296897.94%
Avg MFE
BHR: +0.55% Sector: +2.11% -1.57%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BHR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-11-13 09:28:00 $2.08 -4.81% -5.53% - -1.68% -5.77% -0.96% -1.92% -0.96% LOSS
2023-10-27 09:25:00 $2.73 -0.73% -2.56% -1.28% -2.56% -6.59% -0.73% -0.73% -0.73% LOSS
2023-08-09 09:29:00 $3.08 -1.62% -1.30% -0.97% -1.95% -5.52% +0.97% - +0.97% LOSS
2023-07-26 09:26:00 $3.57 +0.28% +1.12% +0.56% - -0.56% +1.40% -0.28% -0.28% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BHR Shows Negative Expectancy

With 33.3% win rate and -0.57% average gain, BHR alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider BHR for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze BHR with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BHR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BHR historically offers an average upside of +0.17% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BHR Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 33.3%, BHR shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests BHR may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BHR shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.57%). This suggests BHR is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.