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BWA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 6 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-06-28 → 2024-02-08

⚠️ Small sample size (6 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Aug 12, 1993 🔗 www.borgwarner.com
💰 Market Cap: $10.21B 👥 Employees: 38,300
BorgWarner is a tier one supplier of turbo and thermal management technologies, drivetrain systems, powerdrive systems, and battery and charging systems mostly to automotive original equipment manufacturers. Its products aim to move a vehicle with as few electrons as possible, resulting in cleaner, cost-optimized, and more-efficient vehicles. Foundational products, the combustion vehicle business, contributes more than 80% to group revenue while BorgWarner transitions to becoming an electric vehicle-centric parts supplier (e-business). In 2024, 23% of the company's revenue was sourced from Volkswagen and Ford. Revenue is well diversified geographically, with approximately a third each generated in North America, Europe, and Asia.
📊
6
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-1.07%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+0.50%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -1.31%
Avg Winner: +0.52%
Avg Loser: -2.23%
Best: +0.94%
Worst: -3.34%
Trades: 2/4

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -1.07%
Avg Winner: +0.39%
Avg Loser: -2.53%
Best: +0.64%
Worst: -3.40%
Trades: 3/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.84%
Avg Winner: +0.60%
Avg Loser: -2.27%
Best: +1.13%
Worst: -4.06%
Trades: 3/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -1.43%
Avg Winner: +0.44%
Avg Loser: -3.30%
Best: +0.67%
Worst: -5.86%
Trades: 3/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -2.04%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -2.04%
Best: -0.22%
Worst: -7.83%
Trades: 0/6

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.50%
Best MFE: +1.56%
Avg Time to MFE: 71 min

On average, BWA alerts reach +0.50% profit potential within 71 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.00%
Worst MAE: -3.44%
Avg Time to MAE: 3 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.00%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.49:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 6 alerts, BWA typically reaches +0.50% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 6
Gap Up % 16.7%
Avg Gap -1.55%
Best Gap +0.02%

🏭 Sector Comparison: MOTOR VEHICLE PARTS & ACCESSORIES

How BWA compares to 18 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
BWA: -1.31% Sector: -0.68% -0.63%
EOD Gain
BWA: -2.04% Sector: +576.01% -578.05%
Avg MFE
BWA: +0.50% Sector: +7.31% -6.81%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical BWA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-02-08 09:26:48 $32.0 -2.09% -1.49% +0.30% -1.50% -1.62% +1.56% -0.78% - LOSS
2023-11-02 09:25:00 $35.0 -3.34% -3.40% -4.06% -5.86% -7.83% - -0.83% -5.66% LOSS
2023-05-25 09:25:00 $47.68 -3.23% -2.71% -2.35% -2.54% -1.72% -1.45% -3.44% -3.44% LOSS
2023-02-15 09:27:00 $49.49 +0.10% +0.42% -0.41% +0.14% -0.22% +0.59% -0.51% - WIN
2023-01-17 09:25:00 $44.48 +0.94% +0.10% +0.36% +0.67% -0.52% +0.94% -0.11% +0.02% WIN
2022-06-28 09:25:00 $36.17 -0.24% +0.64% +1.13% +0.50% -0.33% +1.33% -0.36% -0.22% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ BWA Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -1.07% average gain, BWA alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider BWA for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze BWA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for BWA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, BWA historically offers an average upside of +0.50% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 BWA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, BWA shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests BWA may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: BWA shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -1.07%). This suggests BWA is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.