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CCOI Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 2 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-10-02 → 2024-12-03

⚠️ Small sample size (2 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES, NEC (SIC 4899)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Feb 01, 2002 🔗 www.cogentco.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.19B 👥 Employees: 1,916
Cogent carries over one-fifth of the world's internet traffic on its network, providing high-capacity services to businesses. Cogent's corporate customers are in high-rise office buildings, where the firm provides two types of connections: dedicated internet access, which connects them to the internet, and virtual private networking, which offers an internal network for employees in different locations. Cogent's corporate customers are exclusively in North America and account for nearly half of the firm's revenue. Cogent's netcentric customers include internet service providers and content providers, to which Cogent provides internet transit. They hand traffic to Cogent in data centers and rely on Cogent to deliver it. About half of netcentric revenue is from outside the US.
📊
2
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-1.28%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.13%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.03%
Best: -0.02%
Worst: -0.03%
Trades: 0/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.44%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.44%
Best: -0.44%
Worst: -0.44%
Trades: 0/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.64%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.64%
Best: -0.46%
Worst: -0.82%
Trades: 0/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.19%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.19%
Best: -0.19%
Worst: -0.19%
Trades: 0/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -1.28%
Avg Winner: +0.67%
Avg Loser: -3.22%
Best: +0.67%
Worst: -3.22%
Trades: 1/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.13%
Best MFE: +1.77%
Avg Time to MFE: 79 min

On average, CCOI alerts reach +1.13% profit potential within 79 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.32%
Worst MAE: -0.64%
Avg Time to MAE: 17 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.32%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.59:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.59x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 2 alerts, CCOI typically reaches +1.13% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap -0.03%
Best Gap +0.49%

🏭 Sector Comparison: COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES, NEC

How CCOI compares to 12 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
CCOI: -0.03% Sector: -0.36% +0.33%
EOD Gain
CCOI: +0.67% Sector: +404.57% -403.90%
Avg MFE
CCOI: +1.77% Sector: +6.49% -4.72%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical CCOI alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-03 09:27:17 $83.29 -0.02% - -0.82% - -3.22% +0.49% +0.01% +0.49% LOSS
2024-10-02 09:29:34 $74.97 -0.03% -0.44% -0.46% -0.19% +0.67% +1.77% -0.64% -0.55% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ CCOI Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -1.28% average gain, CCOI alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider CCOI for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze CCOI with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CCOI. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, CCOI historically offers an average upside of +1.13% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 CCOI Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, CCOI shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests CCOI may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: CCOI shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -1.28%). This suggests CCOI is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.