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CF Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 46 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-10 → 2024-12-02

⚠️ Small sample size (46 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

CF Industries Holding, Inc. AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS (SIC 2870)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Aug 11, 2005 🔗 www.cfindustries.com
💰 Market Cap: $14.41B 👥 Employees: 2,800
CF Industries is a leading producer and distributor of nitrogen, which is primarily used in fertilizers. The company operates nitrogen manufacturing plants primarily in North America. CF also produces nitrogen in the United Kingdom and holds a joint venture interest in a nitrogen production facility in Trinidad and Tobago. CF makes nitrogen primarily using low-cost US natural gas as its feedstock, making the company one of the lowest-cost nitrogen producers globally. It is also investing in carbon-free blue and green ammonia, which can be used as an alternative fuel to hydrogen or as a means to transport hydrogen.
📊
46
Total Alerts
🎯
58.7%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.37%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+2.31%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 53.3%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.65%
Avg Loser: -0.84%
Best: +1.61%
Worst: -1.89%
Trades: 24/21

15MIN

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: +0.26%
Avg Winner: +1.43%
Avg Loser: -1.21%
Best: +4.43%
Worst: -5.88%
Trades: 25/20

30MIN

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: +0.40%
Avg Winner: +1.70%
Avg Loser: -1.22%
Best: +5.11%
Worst: -5.73%
Trades: 25/20

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.9%
Avg Gain: +0.43%
Avg Winner: +2.09%
Avg Loser: -1.17%
Best: +5.12%
Worst: -3.31%
Trades: 22/23

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 58.7%
Avg Gain: +0.37%
Avg Winner: +2.14%
Avg Loser: -2.15%
Best: +6.37%
Worst: -5.73%
Trades: 27/19

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.31%
Best MFE: +6.76%
Avg Time to MFE: 140 min

On average, CF alerts reach +2.31% profit potential within 140 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.88%
Worst MAE: -7.65%
Avg Time to MAE: 24 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.88%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.63:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.63x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 46 alerts, CF typically reaches +2.31% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 46
Gap Up % 47.8%
Avg Gap +0.03%
Best Gap +1.54%

🏭 Sector Comparison: AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS

How CF compares to 6 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
CF: -0.05% Sector: -0.47% +0.42%
EOD Gain
CF: +0.38% Sector: +3367.10% -3366.72%
Avg MFE
CF: +2.35% Sector: +7.17% -4.82%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical CF alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-02 09:28:25 $89.47 +0.42% +0.16% +0.26% +0.31% +1.67% +2.32% -0.25% +0.23% WIN
2024-02-01 00:00:00 $76.99 - - - - -0.19% +0.27% -1.92% -0.01% -
2023-11-03 09:29:00 $80.4 +0.08% +1.39% +0.73% -0.49% +1.43% +1.82% -0.87% -0.50% WIN
2023-08-25 09:29:00 $73.64 +0.37% -0.20% -0.15% -0.52% -0.08% +0.79% -0.65% +0.46% WIN
2023-08-10 09:29:00 $83.2 -1.89% -1.21% -1.16% -1.52% -3.89% -0.23% -0.49% -0.48% LOSS
2023-07-27 09:27:00 $81.85 -0.01% -0.49% -0.16% +0.35% -0.45% +0.92% -0.56% -0.01% LOSS
2023-07-07 09:27:00 $68.91 +1.51% -0.20% +0.73% +1.45% +4.27% +5.53% -0.58% +0.01% WIN
2023-06-29 09:25:00 $68.5 +0.12% +0.50% +0.83% +1.49% +2.66% +2.73% -0.23% +0.16% WIN
2023-06-12 09:29:00 $67.9 -0.60% -0.17% +0.32% -0.56% +0.31% +0.68% -0.98% -0.78% LOSS
2023-06-02 09:27:00 $61.2 -0.29% +1.29% +2.26% +2.84% +2.79% +4.04% -0.42% -0.03% LOSS
2023-05-30 09:25:00 $62.7 -0.63% -1.01% -1.83% -3.31% -1.10% -0.21% -1.52% -0.64% LOSS
2023-05-18 09:27:00 $64.7 -0.66% -1.02% -1.39% -0.56% +1.56% +1.72% -1.93% -0.08% LOSS
2023-05-09 09:28:00 $67.09 -1.03% -0.31% +0.33% -0.28% +1.04% +1.48% -1.25% -0.03% LOSS
2023-05-03 09:25:00 $74.1 +0.72% +2.17% +2.00% +0.35% -0.34% +2.79% +0.54% +1.54% WIN
2023-04-04 09:27:00 $74.0 -1.80% -2.32% -2.45% -2.55% -1.53% -0.43% -0.43% -1.38% LOSS
2023-04-03 09:25:00 $73.15 +1.28% -0.12% -0.70% -0.92% +0.71% +1.44% +0.45% +0.82% WIN
2023-03-30 09:28:00 $73.5 -1.40% -0.79% -1.39% -2.15% -2.20% -0.26% -0.68% -0.26% LOSS
2023-02-22 09:28:00 $84.42 -0.37% +0.91% +0.72% +1.67% +1.16% +2.62% -0.44% +0.30% LOSS
2023-02-21 09:26:00 $80.75 +0.50% +1.11% +1.34% +1.83% +3.38% +4.28% - +0.47% WIN
2023-02-02 09:29:00 $86.3 -1.29% -1.71% -1.76% -0.83% -1.47% +0.80% -1.95% -1.30% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 58.7% Baseline on CF

The 58.7% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push CF's performance to 75%+.

Optimize CF Strategy →

Why Analyze CF with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CF. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, CF historically offers an average upside of +2.31% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 CF Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 58.7%, CF shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show CF performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.37%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.