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CMS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 14 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-02-21 → 2025-01-16

⚠️ Small sample size (14 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jun 01, 1972 🔗 www.cmsenergy.com
💰 Market Cap: $21.52B 👥 Employees: 8,324
CMS Energy is an energy holding company with three principal businesses. Its regulated utility, Consumers Energy, provides regulated natural gas service to 1.8 million customers and electric service to 1.9 million customers in Michigan. NorthStar Clean Energy, formerly CMS Enterprises, is engaged in wholesale power generation, including contracted renewable energy. CMS sold EnerBank in October 2021.
📊
14
Total Alerts
🎯
42.9%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.10%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+0.74%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +0.24%
Avg Loser: -0.35%
Best: +0.56%
Worst: -1.41%
Trades: 6/8

15MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -0.19%
Avg Winner: +0.35%
Avg Loser: -0.60%
Best: +0.60%
Worst: -2.16%
Trades: 6/8

30MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -0.29%
Avg Winner: +0.34%
Avg Loser: -0.76%
Best: +0.76%
Worst: -2.73%
Trades: 6/8

60MIN

Win Rate: 35.7%
Avg Gain: -0.17%
Avg Winner: +0.56%
Avg Loser: -0.65%
Best: +1.16%
Worst: -2.38%
Trades: 5/8

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -0.17%
Avg Winner: +1.02%
Avg Loser: -1.05%
Best: +2.12%
Worst: -2.80%
Trades: 6/8

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.74%
Best MFE: +2.12%
Avg Time to MFE: 155 min

On average, CMS alerts reach +0.74% profit potential within 155 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.44%
Worst MAE: -1.38%
Avg Time to MAE: 22 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.44%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.69:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 14 alerts, CMS typically reaches +0.74% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 14
Gap Up % 64.3%
Avg Gap -0.00%
Best Gap +0.68%

🏭 Sector Comparison: ELECTRIC & OTHER SERVICES COMBINED

How CMS compares to 12 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
CMS: -0.10% Sector: -0.07% -0.02%
EOD Gain
CMS: -0.17% Sector: -0.02% -0.14%
Avg MFE
CMS: +0.74% Sector: +0.96% -0.22%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical CMS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-16 09:27:45 $66.61 +0.26% +0.47% +0.33% +0.11% +2.12% +2.12% -0.24% -0.18% WIN
2024-12-24 09:25:42 $66.67 -0.30% +0.03% +0.01% -0.07% +0.23% +0.24% -0.31% -0.30% LOSS
2024-12-06 09:29:46 $67.38 +0.11% -0.12% -0.19% -0.56% -0.31% +0.25% -0.11% +0.22% WIN
2024-11-26 09:28:52 $69.73 -0.21% -0.27% +0.04% - +1.03% +1.09% -0.40% +0.13% LOSS
2024-11-01 09:25:46 $69.34 +0.40% +0.35% -0.34% +0.06% -1.50% +0.87% +0.20% +0.68% WIN
2024-06-21 09:26:02 $59.48 +0.03% +0.56% +0.76% +0.95% +0.12% +1.45% +0.69% +0.20% WIN
2024-04-19 09:27:14 $58.48 +0.56% +0.60% +0.64% +1.16% +1.83% +2.05% +0.34% +0.34% WIN
2023-05-24 09:27:00 $58.63 -0.12% -0.43% -0.63% -0.36% -0.97% +0.29% -0.84% -0.26% LOSS
2023-05-15 09:29:00 $62.49 -1.41% -2.16% -2.73% -2.38% -2.80% -0.75% -1.27% -0.80% LOSS
2023-05-04 09:29:00 $60.81 -0.03% -0.38% -0.72% -0.12% +0.79% +1.13% -0.84% +0.12% LOSS
2023-05-03 09:28:00 $61.65 -0.07% -0.16% -0.31% -0.45% -0.75% +1.07% -0.97% +0.21% LOSS
2023-05-02 09:27:00 $61.63 -0.26% -0.23% -0.32% -0.52% -0.23% +0.12% -1.38% +0.03% LOSS
2023-02-22 09:25:00 $61.16 +0.10% +0.10% +0.24% +0.51% -0.57% +0.77% -0.20% +0.38% WIN
2023-02-21 09:26:00 $61.97 -0.42% -1.08% -0.81% -0.71% -1.31% -0.31% -0.82% -0.82% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ CMS Shows Negative Expectancy

With 42.9% win rate and -0.10% average gain, CMS alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider CMS for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze CMS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CMS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, CMS historically offers an average upside of +0.74% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 CMS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 42.9%, CMS shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests CMS may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: CMS shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.10%). This suggests CMS is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.