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CWD Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-05-18 → 2023-05-23

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

CaliberCos Inc. Class A Common Stock REAL ESTATE (SIC 6500)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: May 17, 2023 🔗 www.caliberco.com
💰 Market Cap: $9.7M 👥 Employees: 81
CaliberCos Inc is an asset management firm whose primary goal is to enhance the wealth of investors seeking to make investments in middle-market assets. The company's funds include investment vehicles focused on real estate, private equity, and debt facilities. The company earns asset management fees calculated as a percentage of managed capital in funds and offerings. The company markets services through direct sales to private investors, wholesaling to investment advisers, direct sales to family offices and institutions and through in-house client services. The company operates into three reportable segments: Fund Management, Development, and Brokerage. The majority of revenue is derived from the fund management fees segment.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
100.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
+3.15%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+14.13%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +4.03%
Avg Winner: +6.29%
Avg Loser: -0.49%
Best: +8.77%
Worst: -0.49%
Trades: 2/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +3.15%
Avg Winner: +3.15%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +7.34%
Worst: +0.16%
Trades: 4/0

30MIN

Win Rate: 75.0%
Avg Gain: +1.23%
Avg Winner: +2.98%
Avg Loser: -4.01%
Best: +5.62%
Worst: -4.01%
Trades: 3/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -9.37%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -9.37%
Best: -1.66%
Worst: -27.97%
Trades: 0/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +808.84%
Avg Winner: +1628.71%
Avg Loser: -11.02%
Best: +1850.56%
Worst: -14.36%
Trades: 2/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +14.13%
Best MFE: +27.20%
Avg Time to MFE: 12 min

On average, CWD alerts reach +14.13% profit potential within 12 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.71%
Worst MAE: -8.65%
Avg Time to MAE: 2 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.71%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.81:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.81x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, CWD typically reaches +14.13% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 11.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap -0.96%
Best Gap +3.12%

🏭 Sector Comparison: REAL ESTATE

How CWD compares to 14 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
CWD: +4.03% Sector: -0.30% +4.33%
EOD Gain
CWD: +609.50% Sector: +499.57% +109.93%
Avg MFE
CWD: +9.78% Sector: +8.13% +1.64%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical CWD alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-05-23 09:25:00 $4.45 +3.82% +1.35% +5.62% -2.02% +1850.56% +6.74% -2.25% -1.12% WIN
2023-05-22 09:27:00 $4.81 +8.77% +3.74% +0.63% -1.66% -7.69% +12.47% -0.62% +3.12% WIN
2023-05-19 09:28:00 $6.13 -0.49% +0.16% +2.69% -5.84% -14.36% +10.11% -8.65% -7.01% LOSS
2023-05-18 09:28:00 $10.22 - +7.34% -4.01% -27.97% +1406.85% +27.20% -3.33% +1.17% -

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 100.0% Baseline on CWD

The 100.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push CWD's performance to 75%+.

Optimize CWD Strategy →

Why Analyze CWD with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for CWD. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, CWD historically offers an average upside of +14.13% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 CWD Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 100.0%, CWD shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show CWD performs best on the 15MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +3.15%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.