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DUK Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 45 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-02 → 2025-02-05

⚠️ Small sample size (45 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jun 16, 1964 🔗 www.duke-energy.com
💰 Market Cap: $91.32B 👥 Employees: 26,413
Duke Energy is one of the largest US utilities, with regulated utilities in the Carolinas, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, and Kentucky that deliver electricity to more than 8 million customers. Its natural gas utilities serve more than 1.6 million customers.
📊
45
Total Alerts
🎯
48.9%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.13%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+0.66%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.11%
Avg Winner: +0.42%
Avg Loser: -0.47%
Best: +0.87%
Worst: -1.41%
Trades: 18/27

15MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.14%
Avg Winner: +0.50%
Avg Loser: -0.59%
Best: +1.38%
Worst: -1.73%
Trades: 18/26

30MIN

Win Rate: 35.6%
Avg Gain: -0.24%
Avg Winner: +0.51%
Avg Loser: -0.66%
Best: +1.33%
Worst: -1.83%
Trades: 16/29

60MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.23%
Avg Winner: +0.58%
Avg Loser: -0.76%
Best: +1.52%
Worst: -2.36%
Trades: 18/27

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 48.9%
Avg Gain: -0.13%
Avg Winner: +0.85%
Avg Loser: -1.07%
Best: +2.71%
Worst: -2.97%
Trades: 22/23

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.66%
Best MFE: +3.18%
Avg Time to MFE: 138 min

On average, DUK alerts reach +0.66% profit potential within 138 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.46%
Worst MAE: -1.43%
Avg Time to MAE: 16 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.46%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.45:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 45 alerts, DUK typically reaches +0.66% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 45
Gap Up % 37.8%
Avg Gap -0.08%
Best Gap +0.80%

🏭 Sector Comparison: ELECTRIC & OTHER SERVICES COMBINED

How DUK compares to 12 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
DUK: -0.11% Sector: -0.07% -0.04%
EOD Gain
DUK: -0.13% Sector: -0.02% -0.11%
Avg MFE
DUK: +0.66% Sector: +0.96% -0.30%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical DUK alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-05 09:26:31 $112.33 +0.79% +0.90% +0.38% +0.81% +1.36% +1.67% +0.11% +0.72% WIN
2024-12-05 09:27:55 $113.28 +0.14% +0.23% +0.61% +0.72% +0.64% +0.99% -0.25% -0.06% WIN
2024-11-20 09:29:04 $113.55 +0.17% -0.14% -0.13% -0.05% +0.17% +0.35% -0.48% -0.10% WIN
2024-11-19 09:29:11 $113.44 -0.30% -0.73% -0.91% -0.97% +0.12% +0.17% -1.23% -0.12% LOSS
2024-11-07 09:29:54 $113.75 -1.41% -1.42% -1.83% -2.36% -2.35% -0.47% -0.98% -0.98% LOSS
2024-10-04 09:26:18 $115.21 -0.49% -0.53% -0.80% -0.81% -1.01% -0.30% -0.64% -0.50% LOSS
2024-10-01 09:29:33 $115.25 -0.06% -0.09% -0.26% +0.77% +0.84% +1.05% -0.30% +0.17% LOSS
2024-09-26 09:26:33 $116.0 -0.50% -0.63% -0.54% -0.40% -0.72% +0.28% -0.86% -0.76% LOSS
2024-09-11 09:25:16 $117.42 -1.13% -1.28% -1.48% -1.67% -1.04% -0.79% -1.15% -0.89% LOSS
2024-08-27 09:26:38 $113.01 -0.16% -0.10% -0.10% -0.59% -0.98% +0.07% -0.56% -0.21% LOSS
2024-08-22 09:28:45 $112.8 -0.22% -0.32% -0.45% -0.43% -0.60% -0.11% -0.40% -0.12% LOSS
2024-08-20 09:28:26 $113.2 -0.05% - -0.11% -0.01% -0.72% +0.19% -0.66% -0.26% LOSS
2024-08-12 09:26:41 $112.9 -0.58% -0.41% -0.55% -0.43% +0.42% +0.46% -0.71% -0.24% LOSS
2024-06-04 09:28:51 $103.74 -0.36% -0.46% -0.01% +0.33% +0.83% +1.09% -0.67% -0.47% LOSS
2024-06-03 09:29:53 $103.78 -0.52% -0.41% -0.32% -0.13% -0.36% +0.03% -0.93% -0.66% LOSS
2024-04-01 09:27:53 $96.71 -0.42% -0.84% -0.96% -1.08% -0.66% -0.12% -0.34% -0.22% LOSS
2024-03-05 09:26:34 $92.55 -0.04% +0.75% +0.48% +1.26% +0.15% +1.86% -0.24% +0.25% LOSS
2024-02-23 09:27:37 $92.13 +0.23% +0.52% +0.67% +1.14% +0.65% +1.30% -0.23% +0.29% WIN
2024-02-12 09:26:36 $91.19 +0.59% +0.65% +0.81% +0.76% +1.60% +1.82% -0.02% +0.41% WIN
2023-11-24 09:29:00 $90.45 -0.45% -0.14% -0.36% -0.14% +0.32% +0.38% -0.59% -0.23% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ DUK Shows Negative Expectancy

With 48.9% win rate and -0.13% average gain, DUK alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider DUK for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze DUK with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for DUK. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, DUK historically offers an average upside of +0.66% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 DUK Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 48.9%, DUK shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests DUK may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: DUK shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.13%). This suggests DUK is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.