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EBS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 31 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-05-19 → 2024-11-07

⚠️ Small sample size (31 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Emergent Biosolutions, Inc. PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS (SIC 2834)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Nov 15, 2006 🔗 www.emergentbiosolutions.com
💰 Market Cap: $627.6M 👥 Employees: 900
Emergent BioSolutions Inc offers public health products to the government and healthcare providers. Company operates in three segments namely Commercial Product, MCM Products, and Services segment. The Commercial Product Segment consisting of Nasal Spray; the MCM Products Segment consisting of Anthrax-MCM products, Smallpox-MCM products and Other Products and the Services Segment consisting of Bioservices portfolio. The key revenue is generated through the commercial segment which consists of NARCAN and other commercial products.
📊
31
Total Alerts
🎯
38.7%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-1.85%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+8.43%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 35.5%
Avg Gain: -1.60%
Avg Winner: +1.98%
Avg Loser: -3.57%
Best: +5.28%
Worst: -8.45%
Trades: 11/20

15MIN

Win Rate: 38.7%
Avg Gain: -1.85%
Avg Winner: +4.04%
Avg Loser: -5.58%
Best: +10.11%
Worst: -14.62%
Trades: 12/19

30MIN

Win Rate: 32.3%
Avg Gain: -2.37%
Avg Winner: +6.87%
Avg Loser: -6.76%
Best: +13.27%
Worst: -14.94%
Trades: 10/21

60MIN

Win Rate: 35.5%
Avg Gain: -1.54%
Avg Winner: +9.76%
Avg Loser: -7.75%
Best: +43.76%
Worst: -16.89%
Trades: 11/20

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 38.7%
Avg Gain: -1.77%
Avg Winner: +8.27%
Avg Loser: -8.11%
Best: +17.03%
Worst: -21.90%
Trades: 12/19

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +8.43%
Best MFE: +65.85%
Avg Time to MFE: 90 min

On average, EBS alerts reach +8.43% profit potential within 90 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.42%
Worst MAE: -15.47%
Avg Time to MAE: 7 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.42%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.47:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.47x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 31 alerts, EBS typically reaches +8.43% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 6.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 31
Gap Up % 16.1%
Avg Gap -0.93%
Best Gap +2.79%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

How EBS compares to 381 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
EBS: -1.60% Sector: -0.32% -1.29%
EOD Gain
EBS: -1.77% Sector: +4480411.22% -4480412.99%
Avg MFE
EBS: +8.43% Sector: +7.56% +0.87%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical EBS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-07 09:25:35 $11.25 +1.16% +6.90% +10.17% +9.51% -2.22% +13.16% -2.40% +1.60% WIN
2024-09-25 09:25:03 $6.51 -2.30% -5.84% -7.83% -10.43% -8.76% +2.15% -3.23% -0.46% LOSS
2024-08-30 09:26:59 $10.64 -5.55% -13.20% -14.57% -15.60% -21.90% - -1.79% -1.32% LOSS
2024-08-22 09:26:54 $10.69 -2.70% -4.02% -4.58% -6.83% -11.13% -0.19% -0.37% -0.37% LOSS
2024-08-20 09:25:58 $11.81 +0.40% -4.32% -3.85% -8.21% -18.37% +1.27% -2.37% -1.19% WIN
2024-08-19 09:28:35 $11.22 -1.16% -6.15% -6.42% -5.35% +7.84% +18.32% -12.83% -2.05% LOSS
2024-08-16 09:29:02 $10.16 +0.40% +4.82% +5.22% +7.58% +5.71% +14.27% -3.54% -1.57% WIN
2024-08-15 09:25:25 $7.4 -3.51% +0.27% -0.81% +6.08% +17.03% +21.08% -4.46% -0.68% LOSS
2024-08-07 09:25:03 $6.63 -8.45% -12.82% -8.90% -16.89% -13.73% -0.08% -8.75% -4.07% LOSS
2024-07-17 09:29:00 $12.18 -4.02% +1.77% +3.10% -2.50% -1.31% +4.60% -6.81% -0.49% LOSS
2024-07-02 09:25:25 $7.21 +0.97% +2.29% +4.58% +5.55% +3.88% +14.94% -0.83% +0.97% WIN
2024-05-06 09:25:34 $3.88 +5.28% +6.70% +13.27% +8.38% +2.58% +16.24% -1.03% - WIN
2024-05-03 09:28:18 $3.43 +4.95% -1.46% +3.83% +9.04% +13.41% +17.20% -2.04% +0.58% WIN
2024-05-02 09:27:52 $2.87 +1.36% +10.11% +12.89% +43.76% +14.98% +65.85% -1.74% +2.79% WIN
2024-03-07 09:25:16 $2.78 +1.08% -5.40% -14.44% -7.24% -0.36% +4.68% -15.47% -1.80% WIN
2024-02-22 09:26:24 $2.72 -4.01% -2.21% -9.38% -7.54% +2.94% +9.93% -9.56% -0.37% LOSS
2023-11-28 09:27:00 $2.13 -2.98% -4.70% -7.28% -6.34% -5.63% +1.41% -0.47% -0.47% LOSS
2023-08-30 09:28:00 $4.34 -3.69% -4.72% -5.30% -6.34% +4.61% +5.99% -6.80% -2.53% LOSS
2023-08-29 09:28:00 $4.22 -1.22% +0.59% -2.37% -1.18% -3.55% +1.18% -2.73% -0.24% LOSS
2023-08-01 09:25:00 $7.4 -0.41% +2.16% +6.15% +2.59% +6.89% +10.95% -1.35% -0.68% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ EBS Shows Negative Expectancy

With 38.7% win rate and -1.85% average gain, EBS alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider EBS for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze EBS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for EBS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, EBS historically offers an average upside of +8.43% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 EBS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 38.7%, EBS shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests EBS may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: EBS shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -1.85%). This suggests EBS is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.