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ELAN Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 44 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-04 → 2025-01-08

⚠️ Small sample size (44 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated Common Stock PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS (SIC 2834)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Sep 20, 2018 🔗 www.elanco.com
💰 Market Cap: $12.12B 👥 Employees: 9,450
Elanco Animal Health is an animal health company that is engaged in developing, manufacturing, and marketing pharma products for companion and food animals. It spun off from Eli Lilly in 2018 and acquired Janssen Animal Health in 2011, Novartis Animal Health in 2014, Boehringer Ingelheim Vetmedica in 2017, and Bayer Animal Health in 2020. The company's operations are conducted globally, and it sells its products in over 90 countries. It offers a range of food animal products used in cattle, sheep, goats, and swine production.
📊
44
Total Alerts
🎯
43.2%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-0.58%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+1.22%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 29.5%
Avg Gain: -0.37%
Avg Winner: +1.32%
Avg Loser: -1.12%
Best: +8.87%
Worst: -4.37%
Trades: 13/30

15MIN

Win Rate: 31.8%
Avg Gain: -0.64%
Avg Winner: +1.45%
Avg Loser: -1.61%
Best: +4.65%
Worst: -4.75%
Trades: 14/30

30MIN

Win Rate: 43.2%
Avg Gain: -0.58%
Avg Winner: +1.11%
Avg Loser: -1.87%
Best: +5.37%
Worst: -5.06%
Trades: 19/25

60MIN

Win Rate: 29.5%
Avg Gain: -0.61%
Avg Winner: +1.59%
Avg Loser: -1.58%
Best: +5.53%
Worst: -5.72%
Trades: 13/30

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 36.4%
Avg Gain: -0.83%
Avg Winner: +1.69%
Avg Loser: -2.27%
Best: +6.41%
Worst: -6.68%
Trades: 16/28

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.22%
Best MFE: +10.47%
Avg Time to MFE: 141 min

On average, ELAN alerts reach +1.22% profit potential within 141 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.57%
Worst MAE: -5.26%
Avg Time to MAE: 22 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.57%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.78:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 44 alerts, ELAN typically reaches +1.22% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 44
Gap Up % 38.6%
Avg Gap -0.43%
Best Gap +2.25%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

How ELAN compares to 381 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ELAN: -0.37% Sector: -0.32% -0.05%
EOD Gain
ELAN: -0.83% Sector: +4480411.22% -4480412.06%
Avg MFE
ELAN: +1.22% Sector: +7.56% -6.33%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ELAN alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-08 09:29:49 $11.8 -2.63% -3.47% -2.37% -3.23% -2.12% -0.17% -4.41% -0.51% LOSS
2025-01-06 09:29:30 $12.13 +0.62% +1.65% +0.33% -0.16% -1.73% +1.98% -0.82% -0.41% WIN
2024-02-26 09:26:56 $15.28 +8.87% +4.65% +5.37% +5.53% +6.41% +10.47% -0.92% +0.20% WIN
2024-02-05 09:25:58 $15.78 -0.82% -2.92% -0.98% -1.11% +0.76% +0.95% -5.26% -0.70% LOSS
2023-11-01 09:27:00 $8.81 -1.48% -1.36% -1.36% -0.34% -2.04% - -1.87% -0.23% LOSS
2023-07-17 09:27:00 $11.77 -1.36% -2.42% -2.55% -1.27% -2.12% +0.51% -2.93% -0.17% LOSS
2023-07-14 09:28:00 $11.55 -1.39% -2.42% +0.56% +1.65% +2.51% +3.20% -4.03% -1.21% LOSS
2023-05-18 09:27:00 $8.62 -1.28% -0.81% -0.52% -0.29% +0.93% +1.16% -1.68% -1.04% LOSS
2023-04-20 09:25:00 $9.79 -1.33% -2.15% -2.66% -2.09% -0.61% +0.61% - -0.10% LOSS
2023-02-09 09:27:00 $13.34 +0.75% +1.72% +1.84% +0.97% -1.05% +2.29% +0.53% +0.75% WIN
2023-01-30 09:25:00 $14.52 -4.37% -4.75% -5.06% -5.72% -6.68% -3.86% -4.75% -4.48% LOSS
2023-01-06 09:27:00 $12.6 -0.67% -2.66% -3.73% -3.25% +0.79% +1.11% -4.60% -0.32% LOSS
2022-12-30 09:25:00 $12.07 -0.08% -0.12% +0.37% +1.45% +1.24% +1.74% -0.79% -0.33% LOSS
2022-12-14 09:25:00 $12.94 +0.13% -1.00% +0.54% +0.58% -1.08% +1.08% -1.39% +0.39% WIN
2022-12-06 09:25:00 $12.67 +0.67% +0.67% +0.67% +1.03% -0.79% +2.13% -0.32% +0.55% WIN
2022-11-28 09:25:00 $12.57 -0.48% -1.27% -3.66% -3.22% -3.34% +0.16% -1.35% -1.35% LOSS
2022-11-23 09:25:00 $12.42 +1.13% +0.56% +0.97% -0.04% -1.69% +1.53% +0.24% +0.48% WIN
2022-11-21 09:25:00 $11.9 -0.17% +0.67% +0.97% +0.67% +1.85% +2.52% -0.46% -0.38% LOSS
2022-11-15 09:25:00 $13.0 +0.15% +0.62% -0.35% -0.19% -1.92% +1.54% +0.15% +0.15% WIN
2022-10-05 09:25:00 $12.6 +0.28% +1.27% -0.24% -1.27% +1.19% +1.71% -3.02% +0.16% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ ELAN Shows Negative Expectancy

With 43.2% win rate and -0.58% average gain, ELAN alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider ELAN for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze ELAN with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ELAN. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ELAN historically offers an average upside of +1.22% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ELAN Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 43.2%, ELAN shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests ELAN may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: ELAN shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.58%). This suggests ELAN is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.