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ESPR Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 93 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-25 → 2025-01-28

⚠️ Small sample size (93 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS (SIC 2834)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 26, 2013 🔗 www.esperion.com
💰 Market Cap: $744.4M 👥 Employees: 304
Esperion Therapeutics Inc is a pharmaceutical company. It specializes in developing and commercializing accessible, oral, once-daily, non-statin medicines for patients struggling with elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The firm has the business of researching, developing and commercializing therapies for the treatment of patients with the elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol operating segment. Its products include NEXLETOL, NEXLIZET, NILEMDO and NUSTENDI. The company manages its business in one operating segment, which is the business of researching, developing and commercializing therapies for the treatment of patients with elevated LDL-C.
📊
93
Total Alerts
🎯
43.0%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-1.21%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+5.22%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 37.6%
Avg Gain: -0.50%
Avg Winner: +2.51%
Avg Loser: -2.31%
Best: +13.10%
Worst: -6.82%
Trades: 35/58

15MIN

Win Rate: 37.6%
Avg Gain: -0.77%
Avg Winner: +3.11%
Avg Loser: -3.22%
Best: +8.63%
Worst: -12.79%
Trades: 35/56

30MIN

Win Rate: 40.9%
Avg Gain: -1.17%
Avg Winner: +2.71%
Avg Loser: -3.85%
Best: +9.41%
Worst: -11.86%
Trades: 38/55

60MIN

Win Rate: 38.7%
Avg Gain: -0.80%
Avg Winner: +4.56%
Avg Loser: -4.18%
Best: +20.79%
Worst: -14.32%
Trades: 36/57

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 43.0%
Avg Gain: -1.21%
Avg Winner: +4.76%
Avg Loser: -5.83%
Best: +18.18%
Worst: -25.70%
Trades: 40/52

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.22%
Best MFE: +40.26%
Avg Time to MFE: 117 min

On average, ESPR alerts reach +5.22% profit potential within 117 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.14%
Worst MAE: -18.18%
Avg Time to MAE: 16 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.14%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.66:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 93 alerts, ESPR typically reaches +5.22% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 93
Gap Up % 33.3%
Avg Gap -0.28%
Best Gap +5.36%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

How ESPR compares to 381 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ESPR: -0.50% Sector: -0.32% -0.18%
EOD Gain
ESPR: -1.21% Sector: +4480411.22% -4480412.44%
Avg MFE
ESPR: +5.22% Sector: +7.56% -2.34%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ESPR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-28 09:25:20 $2.02 -0.25% -2.48% -1.93% -1.49% -3.47% +0.99% -0.49% -0.49% LOSS
2025-01-16 09:28:18 $2.16 -0.46% -3.01% -3.24% -3.70% +4.63% +5.56% -5.09% - LOSS
2025-01-15 09:29:59 $2.29 -1.31% -2.62% -3.71% -1.75% -3.49% +2.18% +0.55% +0.87% LOSS
2024-12-18 09:27:09 $2.47 -4.09% -6.07% -5.87% -8.51% -12.55% -0.81% -2.02% -2.83% LOSS
2024-12-17 09:28:14 $2.44 +1.66% +2.25% +2.46% +2.46% +0.82% +4.10% -3.69% -0.41% WIN
2024-12-16 09:29:11 $2.28 +1.32% +2.19% +2.85% +2.61% +2.19% +6.58% -3.07% - WIN
2024-12-13 09:28:03 $2.19 +2.51% -12.79% -5.03% -3.20% +2.74% +3.65% -15.98% -0.46% WIN
2024-12-12 09:29:17 $2.73 -3.66% -7.14% -8.24% -7.33% -6.59% -0.37% -5.13% -0.37% LOSS
2024-11-27 09:28:42 $2.58 -2.52% -2.71% -1.36% -2.13% -1.55% +1.16% - +0.39% LOSS
2024-11-25 09:26:07 $2.5 +1.60% +2.40% +2.80% +4.00% +2.80% +4.60% +0.40% +0.80% WIN
2024-11-18 09:25:17 $2.13 -0.23% +0.47% -0.47% -1.41% +0.94% +2.58% -3.29% - LOSS
2024-11-07 09:29:38 $2.02 +3.47% +2.72% +0.63% +4.21% +4.46% +5.94% -7.43% +0.49% WIN
2024-08-13 09:28:40 $1.86 -2.42% -1.88% +0.81% +2.42% -3.23% +3.23% -2.96% - LOSS
2024-08-12 09:26:20 $1.94 -4.63% -1.58% -0.48% -1.55% -5.15% +3.09% -7.73% -4.12% LOSS
2024-08-05 09:28:50 $1.94 -2.84% -2.09% -1.80% -2.64% +8.76% +9.28% -4.64% - LOSS
2024-08-02 09:26:21 $2.12 -1.65% - -1.18% -0.24% -2.83% +2.36% -1.89% -0.47% LOSS
2024-07-30 09:29:17 $2.37 -1.27% -1.48% -3.38% -4.01% -2.11% +0.42% -0.84% -0.42% LOSS
2024-07-24 09:29:42 $2.31 +1.31% +1.73% +3.03% +3.90% +1.30% +6.49% - +0.43% WIN
2024-07-17 09:26:48 $2.66 -3.20% -1.17% +1.32% +1.32% -1.50% +2.82% -3.38% -0.75% LOSS
2024-07-09 09:29:24 $2.41 -0.45% -0.41% +1.87% +3.94% +2.49% +9.54% -1.24% -0.41% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ ESPR Shows Negative Expectancy

With 43.0% win rate and -1.21% average gain, ESPR alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider ESPR for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze ESPR with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ESPR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ESPR historically offers an average upside of +5.22% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ESPR Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 43.0%, ESPR shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests ESPR may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: ESPR shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -1.21%). This suggests ESPR is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.