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FAST Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 15 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-25 → 2025-01-17

⚠️ Small sample size (15 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 20, 1987 🔗 www.fastenal.com
💰 Market Cap: $50.39B 👥 Employees: 21,568
Fastenal began as an industrial retailer, expanding its product portfolio from nuts and bolts to cutting tools, safety equipment, and janitorial supplies. It transitioned into a distributor by building out a dense network of branches close to its business customers. Once a customer becomes large enough, Fastenal installs vending machines and its own personnel on-site. Today, these on-site locations exceed Fastenal's branch count and remain the firm's main focus for expansion. Fastenal acts as a one-stop outsourcing partner for its industrial customers, offering value-added services along with a wide breadth of maintenance, repair, and operations supplies.
📊
15
Total Alerts
🎯
53.3%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-0.21%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+1.94%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.29%
Avg Winner: +1.10%
Avg Loser: -0.99%
Best: +1.73%
Worst: -5.34%
Trades: 5/10

15MIN

Win Rate: 53.3%
Avg Gain: -0.21%
Avg Winner: +0.96%
Avg Loser: -1.54%
Best: +1.98%
Worst: -4.07%
Trades: 8/7

30MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.35%
Avg Winner: +1.12%
Avg Loser: -1.34%
Best: +1.69%
Worst: -4.18%
Trades: 6/9

60MIN

Win Rate: 53.3%
Avg Gain: +0.18%
Avg Winner: +1.33%
Avg Loser: -1.14%
Best: +2.58%
Worst: -2.49%
Trades: 8/7

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 26.7%
Avg Gain: -19.80%
Avg Winner: +2.95%
Avg Loser: -28.08%
Best: +6.85%
Worst: -52.17%
Trades: 4/11

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.94%
Best MFE: +8.84%
Avg Time to MFE: 109 min

On average, FAST alerts reach +1.94% profit potential within 109 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.70%
Worst MAE: -2.16%
Avg Time to MAE: 6 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.70%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.77:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.77x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 15 alerts, FAST typically reaches +1.94% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 15
Gap Up % 66.7%
Avg Gap +0.07%
Best Gap +1.26%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-BUILDING MATERIALS, HARDWARE, GARDEN SUPPLY

How FAST compares to 5 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
FAST: -0.29% Sector: -0.41% +0.11%
EOD Gain
FAST: -19.80% Sector: -4.25% -15.55%
Avg MFE
FAST: +1.94% Sector: +2.35% -0.41%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical FAST alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-17 09:28:52 $76.74 -5.34% -4.07% -4.18% -0.79% -50.43% +0.33% -0.90% -0.54% LOSS
2024-10-21 09:29:30 $77.84 -0.46% -0.25% -0.15% -0.17% -0.09% +0.17% -0.65% +0.04% LOSS
2024-09-27 09:26:08 $71.5 +1.20% +0.88% +0.41% +0.95% +0.03% +1.22% +0.43% +0.43% WIN
2024-04-11 09:27:56 $71.95 -0.41% -2.20% -2.42% -2.49% -2.88% +2.06% -0.54% +0.53% LOSS
2023-10-12 09:29:00 $58.69 -0.07% +0.26% +1.33% +2.58% -48.70% +3.40% -1.18% +0.02% LOSS
2023-07-13 09:28:00 $57.02 +1.73% +0.05% +1.22% +1.67% -0.56% +2.65% -0.91% -0.04% WIN
2023-04-13 09:29:00 $50.79 -0.02% +1.38% -0.45% +1.18% +3.05% +3.27% -0.96% +0.18% LOSS
2023-03-14 09:28:00 $51.7 +1.33% +1.35% +1.28% +1.91% -49.37% +2.48% +0.93% +1.26% WIN
2023-02-14 09:27:00 $53.59 -1.85% -1.87% -1.19% -1.10% -50.79% -0.71% -2.16% -1.53% LOSS
2023-01-12 09:28:00 $49.1 -0.14% -0.71% -0.75% -0.45% -50.08% +0.65% -1.73% - LOSS
2022-10-13 09:25:00 $43.79 +0.09% +1.98% +1.69% +2.00% +6.85% +8.84% -0.87% +0.62% WIN
2022-07-13 09:25:00 $47.83 -0.92% -0.25% -0.31% +0.12% -2.22% +1.94% -0.90% -0.48% LOSS
2022-06-28 09:25:00 $51.4 -0.19% +0.29% -0.43% -1.52% -52.17% +0.49% -0.45% +0.02% LOSS
2022-02-02 09:25:00 $56.2 +1.14% +1.46% +0.82% +0.27% +1.89% +2.06% -0.05% +0.55% WIN
2022-01-25 09:25:00 $56.58 -0.49% -1.41% -2.17% -1.48% -1.59% +0.27% -0.55% +0.04% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ FAST Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 53.3% win rate, FAST has -0.21% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making FAST profitable.

🔧 Fix FAST Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze FAST with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for FAST. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, FAST historically offers an average upside of +1.94% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 FAST Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 53.3%, FAST shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.54%) outweigh average wins (+0.96%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: FAST shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.21%). This suggests FAST is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.