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GERN Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 45 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-04 → 2024-12-31

⚠️ Small sample size (45 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jul 31, 1996 🔗 www.geron.com
💰 Market Cap: $880.9M 👥 Employees: 229
Geron Corp is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the research and development of cancer treatments. The company's drug in development, Imelstat, is being tested for the treatment of myelodysplastic syndromes, which are disorders of the blood, and myelofibrosis, which is a rare blood cancer affecting bone marrow. The company earns revenue through collaboration agreements, milestones, royalties, and licensing arrangements. Geron possesses various rights to this drug. The company operates as a single segment being, the development of therapeutic products for oncology.
📊
45
Total Alerts
🎯
42.2%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-0.23%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+4.92%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 28.9%
Avg Gain: -0.72%
Avg Winner: +1.72%
Avg Loser: -1.89%
Best: +5.00%
Worst: -8.06%
Trades: 13/29

15MIN

Win Rate: 42.2%
Avg Gain: -0.23%
Avg Winner: +3.29%
Avg Loser: -2.91%
Best: +14.17%
Worst: -10.43%
Trades: 19/25

30MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.53%
Avg Winner: +3.71%
Avg Loser: -3.49%
Best: +18.33%
Worst: -9.48%
Trades: 18/26

60MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.68%
Avg Winner: +4.01%
Avg Loser: -3.81%
Best: +12.50%
Worst: -11.85%
Trades: 18/27

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 37.8%
Avg Gain: -0.77%
Avg Winner: +6.62%
Avg Loser: -5.46%
Best: +33.33%
Worst: -17.61%
Trades: 17/27

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.92%
Best MFE: +35.83%
Avg Time to MFE: 102 min

On average, GERN alerts reach +4.92% profit potential within 102 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.06%
Worst MAE: -5.30%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.06%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.39:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.39x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 45 alerts, GERN typically reaches +4.92% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 45
Gap Up % 22.2%
Avg Gap -0.40%
Best Gap +3.33%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

How GERN compares to 381 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
GERN: -0.72% Sector: -0.32% -0.40%
EOD Gain
GERN: -0.77% Sector: +4480411.22% -4480412.00%
Avg MFE
GERN: +4.92% Sector: +7.56% -2.63%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical GERN alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-31 09:25:32 $3.43 +1.17% +0.87% +1.75% +1.75% +3.21% +4.08% -0.87% -0.58% WIN
2024-11-07 09:28:52 $4.47 -0.67% -3.92% -5.03% -3.92% -4.03% +0.67% -2.91% +0.67% LOSS
2024-07-24 09:25:46 $4.27 +0.70% +0.94% +3.28% -0.12% +0.47% +5.62% -1.17% -0.47% WIN
2024-06-18 09:28:11 $4.64 -2.69% -2.12% -4.09% -5.39% -3.23% +0.65% -0.43% +0.43% LOSS
2024-06-11 09:25:53 $4.96 +0.60% +1.41% +1.52% +4.95% +2.62% +7.46% +0.20% +0.81% WIN
2024-06-10 09:26:41 $4.59 +1.42% +1.74% +0.98% +5.77% +9.80% +10.57% -1.74% -0.22% WIN
2024-06-07 09:26:59 $4.52 +2.41% +9.73% +7.52% +3.32% +1.55% +13.94% -3.54% -1.33% WIN
2024-04-30 09:26:33 $4.09 -1.71% -0.73% -2.69% -2.81% -3.91% +0.73% -4.16% -1.71% LOSS
2024-04-29 09:26:11 $3.85 +1.56% +3.90% +2.99% +3.90% +7.53% +11.69% -2.08% +0.78% WIN
2024-04-10 09:28:24 $3.36 - - -0.15% +0.15% +2.38% +4.76% -2.68% -0.60% -
2024-04-08 09:25:22 $3.35 -1.49% -1.04% -1.04% -1.94% -0.60% +0.60% -1.79% -0.90% LOSS
2024-03-28 09:27:11 $3.32 -0.60% -0.46% -0.15% -1.36% -0.60% +0.60% -1.51% - LOSS
2024-03-20 09:29:01 $3.27 -0.92% -2.29% +1.18% +1.83% +5.20% +6.73% -3.06% -1.53% LOSS
2024-03-19 09:27:58 $3.22 -0.78% -3.14% -1.32% +3.73% +1.24% +5.75% -4.97% +0.62% LOSS
2024-03-18 09:26:24 $3.39 -5.31% -6.79% -6.49% -3.39% -6.34% +1.42% -0.89% -1.18% LOSS
2024-03-15 09:28:30 $3.02 +2.98% +1.32% +3.97% +12.25% +11.26% +15.56% -0.66% -0.66% WIN
2023-12-12 09:26:00 $1.95 -1.32% -2.05% -2.56% -1.04% +1.03% +1.54% -4.10% - LOSS
2023-12-11 09:25:00 $2.1 -2.05% -3.81% -5.48% -8.33% -8.10% -1.43% -2.05% -1.43% LOSS
2023-12-04 09:29:00 $2.11 -8.06% -10.43% -9.48% -11.85% -11.85% - -4.27% -0.47% LOSS
2023-11-01 09:25:00 $1.93 +1.04% -2.07% -2.59% -1.55% - +1.30% -2.59% -1.04% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ GERN Shows Negative Expectancy

With 42.2% win rate and -0.23% average gain, GERN alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider GERN for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze GERN with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for GERN. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, GERN historically offers an average upside of +4.92% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 GERN Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 42.2%, GERN shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests GERN may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: GERN shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.23%). This suggests GERN is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.