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GEVO Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 181 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-11

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Feb 09, 2011 🔗 www.gevo.com
💰 Market Cap: $530.7M 👥 Employees: 122
Gevo Inc is a renewable chemicals and biofuels company engaged in the development and commercialization of alternatives to petroleum-based products based on isobutanol produced from renewable feedstocks. The operating segments are the Gevo segment, GevoFuels segment, and the GevoRNG segment. By its segments, it is involved in research and development activities related to the future production of SAF, commercial opportunities for other renewable hydrocarbon products and isobutanol, including the development of its biocatalysts, and the produces-pipeline quality methane gas captured from dairy cow manure. The company derives maximum revenue from the GevoRNG segment.
📊
181
Total Alerts
🎯
46.4%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.38%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+4.81%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 40.9%
Avg Gain: -0.18%
Avg Winner: +1.70%
Avg Loser: -1.59%
Best: +10.06%
Worst: -9.18%
Trades: 74/100

15MIN

Win Rate: 38.1%
Avg Gain: -0.36%
Avg Winner: +2.93%
Avg Loser: -2.45%
Best: +10.82%
Worst: -17.25%
Trades: 69/109

30MIN

Win Rate: 40.9%
Avg Gain: -0.37%
Avg Winner: +3.32%
Avg Loser: -2.92%
Best: +14.60%
Worst: -23.65%
Trades: 74/107

60MIN

Win Rate: 43.1%
Avg Gain: +0.10%
Avg Winner: +4.49%
Avg Loser: -3.29%
Best: +23.25%
Worst: -25.37%
Trades: 78/101

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 46.4%
Avg Gain: +0.38%
Avg Winner: +5.82%
Avg Loser: -4.73%
Best: +29.94%
Worst: -25.49%
Trades: 84/89

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.81%
Best MFE: +33.76%
Avg Time to MFE: 116 min

On average, GEVO alerts reach +4.81% profit potential within 116 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.94%
Worst MAE: -9.24%
Avg Time to MAE: 13 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.94%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.48:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.48x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 181 alerts, GEVO typically reaches +4.81% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 181
Gap Up % 28.2%
Avg Gap -0.20%
Best Gap +2.21%

🏭 Sector Comparison: INDUSTRIAL ORGANIC CHEMICALS

How GEVO compares to 16 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
GEVO: -0.18% Sector: -0.24% +0.05%
EOD Gain
GEVO: +0.38% Sector: +170.47% -170.09%
Avg MFE
GEVO: +4.81% Sector: +5.49% -0.68%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical GEVO alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-11 09:29:25 $1.76 -0.85% -0.56% +1.99% +1.42% -0.57% +3.41% -1.70% -0.57% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:25:52 $1.95 - -1.54% -2.31% -2.56% -9.23% +0.51% -0.51% -0.51% -
2025-02-03 09:25:01 $1.68 -0.89% -0.48% -0.30% +2.08% +4.17% +4.46% -3.57% -0.60% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:25:26 $2.18 -3.67% -8.09% -9.86% -10.93% -10.55% -0.46% -0.46% -0.46% LOSS
2025-01-13 09:29:45 $2.23 -2.60% -3.36% -3.24% -4.71% -3.59% +0.22% -1.35% -0.45% LOSS
2025-01-10 09:28:41 $2.31 +2.81% +4.21% +0.43% +1.95% -2.16% +5.19% -1.73% +0.43% WIN
2025-01-08 09:29:06 $2.35 +1.91% +0.37% -1.49% -2.13% -0.85% +3.40% +0.48% +1.28% WIN
2025-01-07 09:29:38 $2.64 -2.65% -4.97% -8.33% -6.95% -7.95% +2.27% -3.03% - LOSS
2025-01-06 09:26:13 $2.97 -1.85% -5.31% -4.39% -3.54% -8.75% +2.36% - - LOSS
2025-01-03 09:29:33 $2.51 +4.38% +4.78% +1.79% +4.32% +13.55% +13.55% -4.63% -0.80% WIN
2024-12-30 09:28:03 $2.15 +0.70% +2.09% +1.77% -2.79% +0.93% +5.12% -3.72% -0.93% WIN
2024-12-27 09:28:05 $2.12 +3.25% -1.00% +0.00% -3.30% -0.94% +5.66% -3.30% -0.94% WIN
2024-12-26 09:28:50 $1.57 +10.06% +10.82% +11.88% +23.25% +29.94% +33.76% -0.85% -0.64% WIN
2024-12-20 09:26:28 $1.47 +0.68% +0.17% -0.68% +1.70% +3.40% +4.76% -1.36% -0.68% WIN
2024-12-12 09:26:56 $1.56 -2.56% -3.21% -3.53% -2.88% -3.21% +0.32% -5.45% - LOSS
2024-12-11 09:29:38 $1.54 -2.60% -3.57% -4.87% -4.23% +2.60% +3.25% -5.52% - LOSS
2024-11-25 09:25:41 $1.67 -1.14% -1.80% -0.90% +2.29% +2.99% +4.79% -4.19% -0.66% LOSS
2024-11-14 09:29:24 $1.45 +4.76% +2.02% +1.45% +3.10% +2.76% +6.55% -0.69% -0.69% WIN
2024-11-08 09:26:36 $1.71 -8.27% -17.25% -9.36% -6.81% -7.02% - -2.34% -6.43% LOSS
2024-11-07 09:27:17 $1.75 +5.43% +3.14% +3.24% +9.43% +8.57% +12.57% -1.14% -0.57% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 46.4% Baseline on GEVO

The 46.4% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push GEVO's performance to 75%+.

Optimize GEVO Strategy →

Why Analyze GEVO with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for GEVO. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, GEVO historically offers an average upside of +4.81% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 GEVO Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 46.4%, GEVO shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show GEVO performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.38%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.