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HLF Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 11 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-05-04 → 2024-11-19

⚠️ Small sample size (11 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Dec 16, 2004 🔗 www.herbalife.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.72B 👥 Employees: 8,600
Herbalife Ltd is an international nutrition company that provides health and wellness products to consumers in 95 markets, which consist of countries and territories, through their direct-selling business model. Companies' products are weight management, targeted nutrition, Energy, Sports and Fitness, Outer Nutrition and Literature, Promotional, and Other. Weight management generates the majority of revenue from products like Meal replacements, protein shakes, drink mixes, weight loss enhancers, and healthy snacks. Geographically, the main segments are North America, Latin America, EMEA, Asia Pacific regions, and China.
📊
11
Total Alerts
🎯
45.5%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.50%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.60%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 45.5%
Avg Gain: -0.50%
Avg Winner: +1.16%
Avg Loser: -1.89%
Best: +3.17%
Worst: -3.96%
Trades: 5/6

15MIN

Win Rate: 36.4%
Avg Gain: -1.42%
Avg Winner: +1.07%
Avg Loser: -2.84%
Best: +3.01%
Worst: -11.50%
Trades: 4/7

30MIN

Win Rate: 27.3%
Avg Gain: -2.55%
Avg Winner: +2.01%
Avg Loser: -4.27%
Best: +5.04%
Worst: -19.80%
Trades: 3/8

60MIN

Win Rate: 18.2%
Avg Gain: -3.11%
Avg Winner: +2.40%
Avg Loser: -4.33%
Best: +3.14%
Worst: -16.56%
Trades: 2/9

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 36.4%
Avg Gain: -3.17%
Avg Winner: +2.17%
Avg Loser: -6.22%
Best: +5.38%
Worst: -14.97%
Trades: 4/7

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.60%
Best MFE: +6.36%
Avg Time to MFE: 75 min

On average, HLF alerts reach +2.60% profit potential within 75 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.80%
Worst MAE: -6.71%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.80%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.45:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 11 alerts, HLF typically reaches +2.60% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 11
Gap Up % 36.4%
Avg Gap -0.20%
Best Gap +1.90%

🏭 Sector Comparison: WHOLESALE-DRUGS, PROPRIETARIES & DRUGGISTS' SUNDRIES

How HLF compares to 7 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
HLF: -0.50% Sector: -0.00% -0.50%
EOD Gain
HLF: -3.17% Sector: +377.42% -380.59%
Avg MFE
HLF: +2.60% Sector: +8.09% -5.49%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical HLF alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-19 09:28:00 $7.81 +0.13% -0.06% -0.38% -0.26% -1.15% +0.90% -1.02% -0.64% WIN
2024-07-09 09:27:06 $10.7 -1.87% -1.87% -1.59% -2.01% -8.88% -0.19% -0.28% -0.47% LOSS
2024-05-03 09:26:15 $9.47 +3.17% -1.48% +0.21% -2.80% +1.16% +3.91% -0.74% +1.90% WIN
2024-02-16 09:27:29 $8.1 -0.86% +0.49% -1.48% -0.62% -0.37% +2.72% -0.86% -0.37% LOSS
2024-02-15 09:29:35 $9.09 -3.96% -11.50% -19.80% -16.56% -11.66% +0.66% -6.71% -0.44% LOSS
2023-01-27 09:28:00 $16.94 -0.83% -0.77% -0.77% -1.77% +1.65% +2.66% -2.18% -0.59% LOSS
2022-12-13 09:25:00 $13.48 +0.19% +0.30% -1.56% -3.19% -4.30% +1.63% -3.56% +0.52% WIN
2022-12-08 09:25:00 $12.62 +1.35% +3.01% +0.79% +1.66% +0.48% +4.12% +0.08% +0.08% WIN
2022-12-07 09:25:00 $12.9 -1.16% -0.54% -2.79% -4.34% -2.17% +0.54% -1.24% -0.15% LOSS
2022-12-06 09:25:00 $15.36 +0.99% -3.65% -5.76% -7.45% -14.97% +5.34% -0.07% +0.13% WIN
2022-05-04 09:25:00 $24.53 -2.67% +0.49% +5.04% +3.14% +5.38% +6.36% -3.18% -2.16% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ HLF Shows Negative Expectancy

With 45.5% win rate and -0.50% average gain, HLF alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider HLF for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze HLF with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for HLF. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, HLF historically offers an average upside of +2.60% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 HLF Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 45.5%, HLF shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests HLF may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: HLF shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.50%). This suggests HLF is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.