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HPK Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 2 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-04-13 → 2023-07-19

⚠️ Small sample size (2 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

HighPeak Energy, Inc. Common Stock DRILLING OIL & GAS WELLS (SIC 1381)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 24, 2020 🔗 www.highpeakenergy.com
💰 Market Cap: $494.8M 👥 Employees: 47
HighPeak Energy Inc is an independent crude oil and natural gas company focused on the development of unconventional oil and natural gas reserves in Howard County of the Midland Basin. The company operates in a single segment, which is crude oil and natural gas development, exploration, and production in the U.S.
📊
2
Total Alerts
🎯
100.0%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
+5.19%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+13.18%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +3.32%
Avg Winner: +8.89%
Avg Loser: -2.24%
Best: +8.89%
Worst: -2.24%
Trades: 1/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +2.36%
Avg Winner: +7.18%
Avg Loser: -2.45%
Best: +7.18%
Worst: -2.45%
Trades: 1/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +2.70%
Avg Winner: +8.12%
Avg Loser: -2.71%
Best: +8.12%
Worst: -2.71%
Trades: 1/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +5.19%
Avg Winner: +5.19%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +10.09%
Worst: +0.30%
Trades: 2/0

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +9.31%
Avg Winner: +9.31%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +9.91%
Worst: +8.71%
Trades: 2/0

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +13.18%
Best MFE: +13.85%
Avg Time to MFE: 169 min

On average, HPK alerts reach +13.18% profit potential within 169 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.29%
Worst MAE: -6.49%
Avg Time to MAE: 0 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.29%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

4.01:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 4.01x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 2 alerts, HPK typically reaches +13.18% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 10.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap +1.48%
Best Gap +2.99%

🏭 Sector Comparison: DRILLING OIL & GAS WELLS

How HPK compares to 7 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
HPK: +3.32% Sector: -0.07% +3.40%
EOD Gain
HPK: +9.31% Sector: -0.03% +9.34%
Avg MFE
HPK: +13.18% Sector: +2.96% +10.23%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical HPK alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-07-19 09:27:00 $11.7 +8.89% +7.18% +8.12% +10.09% +9.91% +13.85% -0.09% +2.99% WIN
2022-04-13 09:25:00 $26.52 -2.24% -2.45% -2.71% +0.30% +8.71% +12.52% -6.49% -0.04% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 100.0% Baseline on HPK

The 100.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push HPK's performance to 75%+.

Optimize HPK Strategy →

Why Analyze HPK with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for HPK. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, HPK historically offers an average upside of +13.18% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 HPK Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 100.0%, HPK shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show HPK performs best on the 60MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +5.19%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.