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JOBY Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 605 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-07 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Joby Aviation, Inc. AIRCRAFT (SIC 3721)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Aug 11, 2021 🔗 www.jobyaviation.com
💰 Market Cap: $12.70B 👥 Employees: 2,029
Joby Aviation Inc is a transportation company developing an all-electric, vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) air taxi for commercial passenger service. Its Joby eVTOL aircraft is designed to transport a pilot and up to four passengers or an expected payload of up to 1,000 pounds at speeds of up to 200 mph. The aircraft is optimized for urban routes, with a target range of up to 100 miles on a single charge. The company is also developing an app-based platform to build and operate an aerial ridesharing service powered by a network of eVTOL aircraft that it will manufacture and operate. It has one operating and reportable segment, namely flight services. Currently, the company generates all of its revenue from flight services provided to the Department of Defense in the United States.
📊
605
Total Alerts
🎯
45.9%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.08%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+3.24%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 39.0%
Avg Gain: -0.18%
Avg Winner: +1.17%
Avg Loser: -1.12%
Best: +6.40%
Worst: -7.64%
Trades: 235/345

15MIN

Win Rate: 43.4%
Avg Gain: -0.20%
Avg Winner: +1.86%
Avg Loser: -1.85%
Best: +9.67%
Worst: -10.65%
Trades: 262/329

30MIN

Win Rate: 42.3%
Avg Gain: -0.20%
Avg Winner: +2.27%
Avg Loser: -2.06%
Best: +15.71%
Worst: -13.76%
Trades: 255/339

60MIN

Win Rate: 45.9%
Avg Gain: -0.08%
Avg Winner: +2.62%
Avg Loser: -2.38%
Best: +14.70%
Worst: -12.04%
Trades: 277/325

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.28%
Avg Winner: +3.76%
Avg Loser: -3.12%
Best: +26.38%
Worst: -15.31%
Trades: 242/347

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.24%
Best MFE: +29.34%
Avg Time to MFE: 100 min

On average, JOBY alerts reach +3.24% profit potential within 100 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.29%
Worst MAE: -9.74%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.29%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.5:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.5x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 605 alerts, JOBY typically reaches +3.24% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 605
Gap Up % 26.4%
Avg Gap -0.25%
Best Gap +2.87%

🏭 Sector Comparison: AIRCRAFT

How JOBY compares to 6 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
JOBY: -0.18% Sector: -0.19% +0.01%
EOD Gain
JOBY: -0.29% Sector: +8902.10% -8902.39%
Avg MFE
JOBY: +3.24% Sector: +3.61% -0.37%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical JOBY alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:27:47 $7.57 +2.11% +1.10% +1.45% +1.45% +3.43% +4.49% -0.13% +0.40% WIN
2025-02-13 09:28:41 $7.38 +0.41% +0.41% +0.16% +2.30% +2.71% +3.80% -0.68% +0.27% WIN
2025-02-12 09:29:38 $7.29 +1.03% +1.03% +0.96% +0.48% +0.55% +3.02% -1.10% -0.14% WIN
2025-02-11 09:25:22 $7.73 -2.07% -4.33% -3.30% -1.88% -4.79% +0.91% -4.66% - LOSS
2025-02-10 09:26:04 $7.79 -0.64% -1.52% -0.06% +1.06% +0.51% +4.17% -2.14% - LOSS
2025-02-07 09:27:40 $7.92 +1.01% +0.69% +1.58% +1.52% -1.77% +2.65% -0.95% -0.25% WIN
2025-02-06 09:29:54 $8.15 +0.67% +0.25% -0.98% -1.04% -3.56% +1.84% -0.49% - WIN
2025-02-05 09:25:50 $8.09 -1.36% -1.42% -1.36% -0.74% -0.49% +3.34% -2.10% +0.12% LOSS
2025-02-04 09:26:36 $8.05 +1.24% +0.93% +0.31% +1.37% -0.37% +2.48% -1.49% -0.25% WIN
2025-02-03 09:26:37 $7.89 -0.89% -1.84% -1.39% +0.89% +2.15% +3.55% -2.66% +0.38% LOSS
2025-01-31 09:27:59 $8.3 +3.13% +2.22% +2.41% +5.59% -0.48% +5.66% -0.12% +0.48% WIN
2025-01-30 09:26:25 $8.38 -0.12% +0.72% +0.29% -0.06% -1.79% +1.79% -0.72% +0.12% LOSS
2025-01-29 09:28:15 $8.29 +1.81% +0.78% +1.45% +0.96% +0.48% +3.02% +0.12% +0.72% WIN
2025-01-28 09:25:08 $8.34 -1.20% -1.74% -1.92% -0.84% +0.36% +1.80% -3.06% -0.12% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:27:52 $8.46 -0.77% -1.06% +1.42% +1.65% -2.72% +3.19% -1.51% +0.47% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:28:41 $8.75 +2.97% +2.40% +2.06% +4.34% +0.11% +6.17% -0.34% - WIN
2025-01-23 09:28:51 $8.55 +0.23% -0.82% -0.96% -0.47% +1.40% +1.87% -1.75% +0.35% WIN
2025-01-22 09:25:42 $9.05 -2.18% -2.89% -2.15% -1.71% -3.09% -0.11% -0.44% -0.11% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:25:16 $8.33 +1.38% +3.96% +5.40% +3.96% +8.76% +10.32% -0.72% +0.36% WIN
2025-01-17 09:26:50 $8.55 +0.35% +0.58% +0.12% -2.37% -4.44% +1.52% -1.87% -1.17% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ JOBY Shows Negative Expectancy

With 45.9% win rate and -0.08% average gain, JOBY alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider JOBY for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze JOBY with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for JOBY. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, JOBY historically offers an average upside of +3.24% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 JOBY Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 45.9%, JOBY shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests JOBY may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: JOBY shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.08%). This suggests JOBY is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.