FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

KREF Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 2 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-03 → 2022-06-03

⚠️ Small sample size (2 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS (SIC 6798)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: May 05, 2017 🔗 www.kkrreit.com
💰 Market Cap: $533.7M
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc is a real estate finance company that focuses on originating and acquiring senior mortgage loans secured by CRE assets. The investment is to originate or acquire senior mortgage loans collateralized by institutional-quality CRE assets that are owned and operated by experienced and well-capitalized sponsors and located in liquid markets with underlying fundamentals. KKR manages investments across multiple asset classes, including private equity, real estates, energy, infrastructure, credit, and hedge funds. The company's investment objective is capital preservation and generating attractive risk-adjusted returns for its stockholders over the long term, through dividends.
📊
2
Total Alerts
🎯
0.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.17%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+0.25%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.17%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.17%
Best: -0.10%
Worst: -0.24%
Trades: 0/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -1.13%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -1.13%
Best: -0.80%
Worst: -1.46%
Trades: 0/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.81%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.81%
Best: -0.62%
Worst: -1.00%
Trades: 0/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.56%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.56%
Best: -0.51%
Worst: -0.60%
Trades: 0/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.90%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -1.80%
Best: +0.00%
Worst: -1.80%
Trades: 0/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.25%
Best MFE: +0.29%
Avg Time to MFE: 144 min

On average, KREF alerts reach +0.25% profit potential within 144 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.57%
Worst MAE: -1.08%
Avg Time to MAE: 8 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.57%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.43:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 2 alerts, KREF typically reaches +0.25% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -0.56%
Best Gap -0.36%

🏭 Sector Comparison: REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS

How KREF compares to 118 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
KREF: -0.17% Sector: -0.14% -0.03%
EOD Gain
KREF: -0.90% Sector: +296893.71% -296894.61%
Avg MFE
KREF: +0.25% Sector: +2.11% -1.87%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical KREF alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2022-06-03 09:25:00 $19.48 -0.10% -1.46% -1.00% -0.51% -1.80% +0.21% -0.05% -0.36% LOSS
2022-03-03 09:25:00 $20.82 -0.24% -0.80% -0.62% -0.60% - +0.29% -1.08% -0.77% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ KREF Shows Negative Expectancy

With 0.0% win rate and -0.17% average gain, KREF alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider KREF for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze KREF with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for KREF. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, KREF historically offers an average upside of +0.25% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 KREF Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 0.0%, KREF shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests KREF may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: KREF shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.17%). This suggests KREF is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.