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MCW Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-08-12 → 2024-08-01

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 25, 2021 🔗 www.mistercarwash.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.92B 👥 Employees: 6,640
Mister Car Wash Inc is a car wash brand offering express exterior and interior cleaning services. Express Exterior Locations offers express exterior cleaning services and Interior Cleaning Locations offers both express exterior and interior cleaning services. The company recognizes revenue from activities related to providing car wash services at its car wash locations that are geographically diversified throughout the United States and have similar economic characteristics and nature of services.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.11%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+5.57%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.11%
Avg Winner: +2.61%
Avg Loser: -2.39%
Best: +3.70%
Worst: -4.38%
Trades: 2/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +1.20%
Avg Winner: +3.86%
Avg Loser: -1.45%
Best: +5.00%
Worst: -2.13%
Trades: 2/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.90%
Avg Winner: +4.24%
Avg Loser: -2.43%
Best: +5.69%
Worst: -2.60%
Trades: 2/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.64%
Avg Winner: +3.54%
Avg Loser: -2.26%
Best: +6.69%
Worst: -3.07%
Trades: 2/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -1.17%
Avg Winner: +7.79%
Avg Loser: -4.16%
Best: +7.79%
Worst: -8.26%
Trades: 1/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.57%
Best MFE: +14.39%
Avg Time to MFE: 136 min

On average, MCW alerts reach +5.57% profit potential within 136 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.17%
Worst MAE: -4.51%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.17%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.57:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.57x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, MCW typically reaches +5.57% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 75.0%
Avg Gap +1.12%
Best Gap +3.05%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-AUTOMOTIVE REPAIR, SERVICES & PARKING

How MCW compares to 3 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MCW: +0.11% Sector: -0.26% +0.37%
EOD Gain
MCW: -1.17% Sector: -0.21% -0.96%
Avg MFE
MCW: +5.57% Sector: +4.91% +0.66%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MCW alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-08-01 09:28:44 $7.99 -4.38% -2.13% -2.25% -3.07% -8.26% +0.25% -4.51% -1.13% LOSS
2024-07-31 09:27:15 $7.68 -0.39% -0.78% -2.60% +0.39% -1.04% +2.21% -2.86% +0.26% LOSS
2023-08-28 09:26:00 $7.55 +1.52% +2.72% +2.78% -1.46% -3.18% +5.43% -1.19% +3.05% WIN
2022-08-12 09:25:00 $10.01 +3.70% +5.00% +5.69% +6.69% +7.79% +14.39% -0.10% +2.30% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 50.0% Baseline on MCW

The 50.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push MCW's performance to 75%+.

Optimize MCW Strategy →

Why Analyze MCW with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MCW. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MCW historically offers an average upside of +5.57% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MCW Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, MCW shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show MCW performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.11%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.