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MRK Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 135 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-05 → 2025-02-12

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Apr 20, 1949 🔗 www.merck.com
💰 Market Cap: $268.51B 👥 Employees: 75,000
Merck makes pharmaceutical products to treat several conditions in a number of therapeutic areas, including cardiometabolic disease, cancer, and infections. Within cancer, the firm's immuno-oncology platform, led by Keytruda, is a major contributor to overall sales. The company also has a substantial vaccine business aimed at preventing pediatric diseases, as well as Gardasil for human papillomavirus. Additionally, Merck sells animal health-related drugs. From a geographical perspective, 47% of the company's sales are generated from US human health (pharmaceuticals and vaccines).
📊
135
Total Alerts
🎯
54.8%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.01%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.04%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 45.2%
Avg Gain: +0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.46%
Avg Loser: -0.38%
Best: +3.11%
Worst: -1.76%
Trades: 61/73

15MIN

Win Rate: 49.6%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.64%
Avg Loser: -0.63%
Best: +3.32%
Worst: -2.66%
Trades: 67/68

30MIN

Win Rate: 48.9%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.75%
Avg Loser: -0.76%
Best: +2.88%
Worst: -3.40%
Trades: 66/68

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.1%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.80%
Avg Loser: -0.86%
Best: +3.37%
Worst: -5.74%
Trades: 65/67

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 54.8%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.87%
Avg Loser: -1.02%
Best: +2.89%
Worst: -6.60%
Trades: 74/61

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.04%
Best MFE: +3.86%
Avg Time to MFE: 117 min

On average, MRK alerts reach +1.04% profit potential within 117 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.41%
Worst MAE: -3.78%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.41%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.55:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.55x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 135 alerts, MRK typically reaches +1.04% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 135
Gap Up % 54.1%
Avg Gap +0.05%
Best Gap +3.18%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

How MRK compares to 381 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MRK: +0.00% Sector: -0.32% +0.32%
EOD Gain
MRK: +0.01% Sector: +4480411.22% -4480411.21%
Avg MFE
MRK: +1.04% Sector: +7.56% -6.52%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MRK alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-12 09:27:33 $86.34 -0.34% -0.03% -0.42% +0.13% -0.78% +0.38% -0.66% -0.31% LOSS
2025-02-11 09:26:35 $86.36 -0.01% -0.17% -0.17% -0.59% +0.21% +0.73% -0.73% -0.35% LOSS
2025-02-04 09:27:51 $89.93 -0.22% -0.96% -1.42% -1.58% +0.90% +1.45% -2.89% -1.03% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:27:15 $97.2 -0.31% -0.61% -1.27% -1.59% -1.70% -0.10% -0.46% -0.42% LOSS
2025-01-10 09:29:43 $99.34 +0.09% +0.24% +0.62% +0.57% -0.09% +1.07% -0.53% -0.13% WIN
2025-01-07 09:28:27 $100.42 -0.04% +1.00% +1.85% +1.86% +0.60% +2.54% -0.37% -0.29% LOSS
2024-12-16 09:29:17 $101.0 +0.71% +0.55% +0.95% +0.95% -0.93% +1.27% -0.07% +0.25% WIN
2024-12-09 09:29:30 $103.35 -0.41% -0.36% -0.35% +0.43% +0.43% +1.66% -0.99% -0.47% LOSS
2024-11-12 09:25:59 $100.82 -0.40% -0.49% -0.59% -0.92% -2.22% +0.08% +0.03% -0.06% LOSS
2024-10-30 09:26:28 $103.41 -0.13% -0.07% -0.35% -0.15% +1.37% +1.54% -0.49% +0.05% LOSS
2024-10-22 09:26:53 $106.13 -0.40% -0.08% -0.05% +0.27% +0.48% +0.73% -0.40% -0.21% LOSS
2024-10-21 09:25:32 $108.99 -0.15% -0.43% -0.85% -1.03% -2.43% +0.17% -0.28% +0.08% LOSS
2024-10-17 09:25:47 $110.21 -0.24% -0.43% -0.29% -0.32% -0.42% -0.02% -0.33% -0.07% LOSS
2024-10-03 09:25:21 $112.42 -0.52% -0.65% -1.24% -1.24% -1.99% -0.30% -0.70% -0.53% LOSS
2024-09-30 09:26:43 $113.71 -0.87% -0.60% -0.33% -0.05% -0.13% +0.26% -0.89% -0.09% LOSS
2024-09-25 09:28:11 $114.93 +0.52% +0.78% +0.50% +0.84% -0.17% +0.95% - +0.32% WIN
2024-09-18 09:29:30 $118.37 +0.10% -0.07% +0.12% +0.36% +0.23% +0.85% -0.42% -0.14% WIN
2024-09-10 09:28:25 $115.77 -0.86% -1.24% -1.76% -1.10% -0.38% +0.28% -2.11% -0.48% LOSS
2024-09-09 09:27:46 $113.89 +0.95% +1.33% +1.84% +1.98% +1.33% +2.64% -1.33% -0.65% WIN
2024-07-31 09:25:15 $116.29 -0.40% +0.61% -0.54% -1.16% -2.72% +1.33% -0.77% -0.25% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 54.8% Baseline on MRK

The 54.8% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push MRK's performance to 75%+.

Optimize MRK Strategy →

Why Analyze MRK with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MRK. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MRK historically offers an average upside of +1.04% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MRK Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 54.8%, MRK shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show MRK performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.01%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.