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NEM Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 275 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-20 → 2025-02-12

🏢 Company Profile

Newmont Corporation GOLD AND SILVER ORES (SIC 1040)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Dec 21, 1951 🔗 www.newmont.com
💰 Market Cap: $135.65B 👥 Employees: 22,200
Newmont is the world's largest gold miner. It bought Goldcorp in 2019, combined its Nevada mines in a joint venture with competitor Barrick later that year, and also purchased competitor Newcrest in November 2023. Its portfolio includes 11 mines and interests in two joint ventures in the Americas, Africa, Australia, and Papua New Guinea. The company is expected to sell roughly 5.6 million ounces of gold in 2025 from its core mines after selling six higher-cost, smaller mines following the Newcrest acquisition. Newmont also produces material amounts of copper, silver, zinc, and lead as byproducts. It had about two decades of gold reserves, along with significant byproduct reserves at the end of December 2024.
📊
275
Total Alerts
🎯
47.8%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.04%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+1.50%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 43.4%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.51%
Avg Loser: -0.45%
Best: +1.84%
Worst: -1.61%
Trades: 119/153

15MIN

Win Rate: 44.5%
Avg Gain: -0.11%
Avg Winner: +0.67%
Avg Loser: -0.75%
Best: +3.93%
Worst: -3.30%
Trades: 122/149

30MIN

Win Rate: 45.6%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.84%
Avg Loser: -0.77%
Best: +4.43%
Worst: -4.04%
Trades: 125/148

60MIN

Win Rate: 47.8%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +1.06%
Avg Loser: -1.05%
Best: +5.34%
Worst: -5.85%
Trades: 131/142

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 47.3%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +1.67%
Avg Loser: -1.52%
Best: +9.15%
Worst: -11.75%
Trades: 130/145

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.50%
Best MFE: +10.41%
Avg Time to MFE: 126 min

On average, NEM alerts reach +1.50% profit potential within 126 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.60%
Worst MAE: -3.29%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.60%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.51:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.51x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 275 alerts, NEM typically reaches +1.50% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 275
Gap Up % 46.2%
Avg Gap -0.03%
Best Gap +1.41%

🏭 Sector Comparison: GOLD AND SILVER ORES

How NEM compares to 14 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
NEM: -0.03% Sector: -0.32% +0.28%
EOD Gain
NEM: -0.01% Sector: +146.19% -146.20%
Avg MFE
NEM: +1.49% Sector: +3.74% -2.25%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NEM alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-12 09:26:07 $45.3 +0.93% +0.71% +0.97% +1.35% +3.33% +3.80% -0.42% +0.02% WIN
2025-02-10 09:26:35 $45.87 +0.13% +0.10% +0.18% +1.19% +1.29% +1.66% -0.20% +0.28% WIN
2025-02-03 09:28:15 $42.95 +0.33% -0.30% +0.26% +0.40% +0.40% +1.75% -0.69% -0.12% WIN
2025-01-27 09:28:43 $41.79 -1.00% -0.48% -0.57% -1.03% -0.53% -0.08% -0.79% -0.36% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:28:11 $42.45 +0.38% +0.31% -0.47% +0.06% -0.97% +0.94% +0.07% +0.31% WIN
2025-01-10 09:29:03 $39.79 +0.90% -0.74% -0.18% -0.10% -1.73% +1.18% -0.30% -0.05% WIN
2025-01-07 09:28:44 $38.28 +0.99% +1.29% +1.54% +1.65% -0.31% +1.76% -0.08% -0.08% WIN
2025-01-06 09:25:01 $38.08 +0.30% -0.73% +0.03% -0.30% -0.76% +0.58% -0.21% -0.03% WIN
2024-12-30 09:29:19 $37.36 -0.13% -0.95% -0.35% -1.06% -0.96% +0.37% -0.16% +0.16% LOSS
2024-12-23 09:26:09 $38.14 -0.03% +0.03% -0.34% -0.81% +0.05% +0.31% -1.77% -0.34% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:26:32 $37.15 +0.62% +1.24% +1.91% +2.13% +3.04% +3.47% -0.35% +0.27% WIN
2024-12-19 09:28:51 $37.66 +0.48% -0.40% -0.45% -1.12% -1.70% +0.68% -0.32% +0.01% WIN
2024-12-06 09:28:46 $41.02 +0.05% +0.44% +0.80% +1.19% +0.22% +1.52% -0.59% - WIN
2024-11-25 09:27:31 $42.07 -0.14% -0.09% +0.62% +0.11% +0.93% +0.93% -1.09% -0.49% LOSS
2024-11-22 09:27:36 $43.53 -0.46% +0.25% +0.28% +0.23% -0.34% +0.60% -0.67% -0.11% LOSS
2024-11-20 09:26:25 $43.12 -0.66% -0.79% -0.63% -0.57% -0.30% -0.07% -0.83% -0.16% LOSS
2024-11-19 09:28:06 $42.88 -0.07% -0.44% -0.82% -0.70% +0.70% +0.84% -0.98% - LOSS
2024-11-18 09:29:25 $42.07 -0.05% -0.19% -0.05% +0.36% +0.69% +0.87% -0.78% -0.40% LOSS
2024-11-14 09:29:35 $40.77 +0.27% +0.17% -0.05% +0.69% -0.22% +1.05% -0.71% -0.12% WIN
2024-11-13 09:28:38 $41.62 -0.08% - -0.32% +0.07% -0.94% +0.70% -0.07% +0.31% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ NEM Shows Negative Expectancy

With 47.8% win rate and -0.04% average gain, NEM alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider NEM for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze NEM with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NEM. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NEM historically offers an average upside of +1.50% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NEM Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 47.8%, NEM shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests NEM may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: NEM shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.04%). This suggests NEM is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.