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OTIS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 31 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-19 → 2024-05-28

⚠️ Small sample size (31 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Mar 18, 2020 🔗 www.otis.com
💰 Market Cap: $35.46B 👥 Employees: 72,000
Otis is the largest global elevator and escalator supplier by revenue with around 18% global market share. In 1854 Otis' founder and namesake Elisha Graves Otis, invented a safety mechanism that prevented elevators from falling if the hoisting cable failed. The company's product and service lifecycle begins with installations of elevator units in new buildings, later selling maintenance services on the units, and eventually replacement of the units after the average 15- to 20-year useful life of an elevator. As the largest global OEM, Otis has amassed an installed base under service that exceeds 2 million elevators. Its business model is similar to that of its closest competitors Kone, Schindler, and TK Elevator.
📊
31
Total Alerts
🎯
54.8%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.08%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+0.98%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 51.6%
Avg Gain: -0.12%
Avg Winner: +0.73%
Avg Loser: -1.03%
Best: +2.66%
Worst: -2.31%
Trades: 16/15

15MIN

Win Rate: 51.6%
Avg Gain: -0.17%
Avg Winner: +0.81%
Avg Loser: -1.21%
Best: +2.43%
Worst: -3.02%
Trades: 16/15

30MIN

Win Rate: 48.4%
Avg Gain: -0.17%
Avg Winner: +0.95%
Avg Loser: -1.21%
Best: +2.10%
Worst: -2.82%
Trades: 15/16

60MIN

Win Rate: 54.8%
Avg Gain: -0.08%
Avg Winner: +0.80%
Avg Loser: -1.14%
Best: +2.30%
Worst: -2.47%
Trades: 17/14

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 54.8%
Avg Gain: +0.17%
Avg Winner: +1.15%
Avg Loser: -1.03%
Best: +2.95%
Worst: -4.27%
Trades: 17/14

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.98%
Best MFE: +3.49%
Avg Time to MFE: 166 min

On average, OTIS alerts reach +0.98% profit potential within 166 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.63%
Worst MAE: -2.66%
Avg Time to MAE: 27 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.63%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.57:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 31 alerts, OTIS typically reaches +0.98% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 31
Gap Up % 51.6%
Avg Gap -0.01%
Best Gap +3.09%

🏭 Sector Comparison: ELECTRONIC & OTHER ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT (NO COMPUTER EQUIP)

How OTIS compares to 5 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
OTIS: -0.12% Sector: -0.21% +0.09%
EOD Gain
OTIS: +0.17% Sector: +39525.70% -39525.53%
Avg MFE
OTIS: +0.98% Sector: +2.93% -1.95%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical OTIS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-05-28 09:28:06 $99.5 -1.86% -2.34% -2.67% -2.47% -4.27% -1.75% -2.14% -1.89% LOSS
2024-05-03 09:28:21 $91.75 +1.04% +1.12% +1.29% +0.34% +0.40% +1.51% +0.75% +0.82% WIN
2024-04-18 09:26:46 $96.13 -0.50% -0.50% -0.61% -0.50% -0.67% +0.17% -0.93% -0.89% LOSS
2024-02-21 09:25:50 $91.02 -0.23% +0.21% +0.03% +0.32% +0.73% +0.79% -0.23% +0.42% LOSS
2024-02-12 09:29:48 $90.17 +1.13% +0.89% +1.10% +0.95% +1.30% +1.65% +0.84% +0.84% WIN
2023-12-07 09:27:00 $86.47 +0.70% +0.51% +0.53% +0.16% +0.22% +0.83% -0.13% +0.40% WIN
2023-11-29 09:27:00 $84.3 +0.78% +0.85% +1.01% +0.88% +0.04% +1.08% +0.65% +0.69% WIN
2023-11-10 09:29:00 $80.11 +0.77% +1.14% +0.99% +1.21% +2.40% +2.73% +0.66% +0.95% WIN
2023-10-31 09:29:00 $75.65 +1.78% +1.86% +1.56% +1.37% +2.06% +2.31% +1.08% +1.23% WIN
2023-10-02 09:27:00 $79.99 +0.36% +0.50% +0.09% +0.31% -0.61% +0.68% +0.03% +0.09% WIN
2023-08-23 09:28:00 $82.97 -0.32% +0.34% +0.04% +0.17% +1.06% +1.27% -0.33% +0.30% LOSS
2023-08-14 09:25:00 $87.4 -0.41% -0.47% -0.93% -0.53% -0.40% -0.14% -1.08% -0.22% LOSS
2023-05-23 09:28:00 $84.08 -1.91% -2.26% -2.45% -1.46% -2.19% -0.57% -1.06% -0.94% LOSS
2023-03-15 09:29:00 $79.84 +2.66% +2.43% +1.69% +1.06% +1.65% +3.49% +2.66% +3.09% WIN
2023-02-07 09:28:00 $84.05 -1.11% -1.06% -1.21% -1.31% -0.50% -0.27% -2.19% -1.11% LOSS
2023-01-17 09:29:00 $83.27 +0.14% +0.10% -0.07% +0.12% -0.35% +0.26% -0.42% -0.01% WIN
2023-01-09 09:26:00 $82.7 -1.27% -1.14% -0.64% -0.59% -1.49% +0.27% -1.67% -0.87% LOSS
2023-01-05 09:26:00 $80.0 +0.41% +0.24% +0.61% +0.46% +0.16% +1.01% -0.04% +0.64% WIN
2022-08-16 09:25:00 $81.55 -0.49% -0.60% -0.47% -0.15% -0.28% +0.26% -0.69% -0.38% LOSS
2022-08-04 09:25:00 $79.23 +0.24% +0.23% +0.29% +0.59% +0.34% +0.73% -0.06% +0.44% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ OTIS Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 54.8% win rate, OTIS has -0.08% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making OTIS profitable.

🔧 Fix OTIS Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze OTIS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for OTIS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, OTIS historically offers an average upside of +0.98% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 OTIS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 54.8%, OTIS shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.14%) outweigh average wins (+0.80%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: OTIS shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.08%). This suggests OTIS is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.