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PUBM Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 3 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-01 → 2024-08-09

⚠️ Small sample size (3 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Dec 09, 2020 🔗 www.pubmatic.com
💰 Market Cap: $358.8M 👥 Employees: 1,049
PubMatic Inc is a supply-side platform provider in the digital advertising technology market. These platforms help publishers, which supply digital ad inventory, manage their inventory, selling a high percentage of their inventory (increase the ad fill rate) and maximizing revenue per ad sold (optimize yield). The company generates revenue mainly by taking a piece of the ad sales that it enables. Buyers on the platform include intermediary buyers, such as demand-side platforms, or advertisers and ad agencies directly. Geographically, the company generates the majority of its revenue from the United States, followed by EMEA and APAC.
📊
3
Total Alerts
🎯
33.3%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-1.82%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+2.36%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -3.10%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -3.10%
Best: -0.21%
Worst: -5.93%
Trades: 0/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -3.86%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -3.86%
Best: -2.98%
Worst: -5.17%
Trades: 0/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -1.82%
Avg Winner: +2.49%
Avg Loser: -3.97%
Best: +2.49%
Worst: -6.20%
Trades: 1/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -1.63%
Avg Winner: +3.66%
Avg Loser: -4.28%
Best: +3.66%
Worst: -4.53%
Trades: 1/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -4.19%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -6.28%
Best: +0.00%
Worst: -9.46%
Trades: 0/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.36%
Best MFE: +6.59%
Avg Time to MFE: 82 min

On average, PUBM alerts reach +2.36% profit potential within 82 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -5.77%
Worst MAE: -9.17%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 5.77%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.41:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 3 alerts, PUBM typically reaches +2.36% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 3
Gap Up % 33.3%
Avg Gap -1.96%
Best Gap +0.05%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.

How PUBM compares to 40 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
PUBM: -3.10% Sector: -0.08% -3.03%
EOD Gain
PUBM: -4.19% Sector: +7112.19% -7116.38%
Avg MFE
PUBM: +2.36% Sector: +3.14% -0.79%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical PUBM alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-08-09 09:26:37 $14.51 -5.93% -5.17% -6.20% -4.03% -3.10% -1.31% -9.17% -4.76% LOSS
2024-02-27 09:29:34 $20.48 -3.17% -2.98% +2.49% +3.66% - +6.59% -6.74% +0.05% LOSS
2022-03-01 09:25:00 $28.0 -0.21% -3.45% -1.75% -4.53% -9.46% +1.79% -1.39% -1.18% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ PUBM Shows Negative Expectancy

With 33.3% win rate and -1.82% average gain, PUBM alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider PUBM for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze PUBM with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PUBM. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, PUBM historically offers an average upside of +2.36% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 PUBM Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 33.3%, PUBM shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests PUBM may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: PUBM shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -1.82%). This suggests PUBM is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.