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RITM Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 17 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-10-03 → 2024-10-29

⚠️ Small sample size (17 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: May 02, 2013 🔗 www.rithmcap.com
💰 Market Cap: $6.53B 👥 Employees: 6,045
Rithm Capital Corp operates as a real estate investment trust that provides capital and services to the real estate and financial services industries. The company aims to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in all interest-rate environments through a complementary portfolio of investments and operating businesses. Its investment portfolio is composed of mortgage servicing-related assets (full and excess MSRs and servicer advances), residential securities (and associated call rights) loans (including single-family rental), and consumer loans. Its operating segments are Origination and Servicing; Investment Portfolio; Residential Transitional Lending; and Asset Management.
📊
17
Total Alerts
🎯
29.4%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.53%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.15%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 17.6%
Avg Gain: -0.35%
Avg Winner: +1.09%
Avg Loser: -0.71%
Best: +1.87%
Worst: -1.93%
Trades: 3/13

15MIN

Win Rate: 17.6%
Avg Gain: -0.74%
Avg Winner: +1.27%
Avg Loser: -1.17%
Best: +2.31%
Worst: -5.02%
Trades: 3/14

30MIN

Win Rate: 23.5%
Avg Gain: -0.47%
Avg Winner: +1.34%
Avg Loser: -1.11%
Best: +3.08%
Worst: -4.28%
Trades: 4/12

60MIN

Win Rate: 23.5%
Avg Gain: -0.41%
Avg Winner: +1.94%
Avg Loser: -1.13%
Best: +3.45%
Worst: -2.97%
Trades: 4/13

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 29.4%
Avg Gain: -0.53%
Avg Winner: +1.47%
Avg Loser: -1.64%
Best: +4.36%
Worst: -3.29%
Trades: 5/10

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.15%
Best MFE: +4.36%
Avg Time to MFE: 85 min

On average, RITM alerts reach +1.15% profit potential within 85 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.92%
Worst MAE: -2.61%
Avg Time to MAE: 3 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.92%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.26:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 17 alerts, RITM typically reaches +1.15% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 17
Gap Up % 23.5%
Avg Gap -0.32%
Best Gap +0.53%

🏭 Sector Comparison: REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS

How RITM compares to 118 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
RITM: -0.35% Sector: -0.14% -0.21%
EOD Gain
RITM: -0.53% Sector: +296893.71% -296894.24%
Avg MFE
RITM: +1.15% Sector: +2.11% -0.96%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical RITM alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-10-29 09:27:54 $10.65 +0.75% -0.09% +0.52% +0.28% +0.47% +1.31% -1.50% -0.85% WIN
2024-10-01 09:29:42 $11.12 -0.54% -1.12% -1.48% -1.80% -1.62% - -0.45% -0.09% LOSS
2024-09-25 09:27:45 $11.38 -0.22% -0.40% -0.66% -1.13% -1.41% +0.26% -0.53% +0.09% LOSS
2024-08-05 09:26:10 $10.69 -0.94% -0.80% - +0.89% +0.75% +3.09% -1.40% -0.37% LOSS
2024-03-08 09:28:22 $11.07 -0.36% +0.41% +0.18% -0.05% -1.35% +0.50% -0.45% -0.45% LOSS
2024-02-13 09:28:01 $10.23 -0.59% -0.68% -1.07% -1.03% -0.68% -0.00% -1.66% -0.39% LOSS
2023-12-28 09:28:00 $10.83 -0.14% -0.18% -0.05% -0.23% - +0.14% -0.40% -0.28% LOSS
2023-10-27 09:26:00 $9.41 +0.64% -0.53% -0.11% -1.22% -2.87% +2.02% - +0.53% WIN
2023-10-26 09:28:00 $9.08 +1.87% +2.31% +3.08% +3.14% +1.21% +3.63% -0.22% -0.11% WIN
2023-08-02 09:28:00 $10.25 -0.39% -0.26% -0.15% -0.78% -0.39% +0.39% -0.98% -0.49% LOSS
2023-07-28 09:29:00 $10.17 -0.49% -0.64% -0.54% -0.25% - +0.29% +0.20% - LOSS
2023-05-04 09:26:00 $7.9 -0.70% -2.15% -1.77% -2.97% -3.29% -0.19% -1.01% -0.76% LOSS
2023-03-13 09:25:00 $8.04 - -1.69% -1.68% -2.19% -0.25% +1.37% -2.61% +0.12% -
2023-02-07 09:27:00 $9.2 -0.87% -0.97% -0.38% -0.49% +0.54% +0.87% -1.20% -0.76% LOSS
2022-12-19 09:25:00 $8.26 -0.26% +1.09% +1.57% +3.45% +4.36% +4.36% -0.38% +0.12% LOSS
2022-11-02 09:25:00 $8.67 -1.85% -1.79% -1.15% -1.86% -3.11% +1.50% -2.42% -1.04% LOSS
2022-10-03 09:25:00 $7.27 -1.93% -5.02% -4.28% -0.69% -1.38% - -0.55% -0.69% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ RITM Shows Negative Expectancy

With 29.4% win rate and -0.53% average gain, RITM alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider RITM for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze RITM with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for RITM. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, RITM historically offers an average upside of +1.15% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 RITM Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 29.4%, RITM shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests RITM may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: RITM shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.53%). This suggests RITM is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.