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RUN Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 263 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-11 → 2025-02-12

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 05, 2015 🔗 www.sunrun.com
💰 Market Cap: $4.52B 👥 Employees: 9,751
Sunrun is engaged in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems in the United States. The company acquires customers directly and through relationships with various solar and strategic partners. The solar systems are constructed by Sunrun or by Sunrun's partners and are owned by the company. Sunrun's customers typically enter into 20- to 25-year agreements to utilize its solar energy system. The company also sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking, and solar leads generated to customers.
📊
263
Total Alerts
🎯
46.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-0.10%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+3.86%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 45.6%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +1.55%
Avg Loser: -1.50%
Best: +9.45%
Worst: -7.24%
Trades: 119/140

15MIN

Win Rate: 46.0%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +2.23%
Avg Loser: -2.15%
Best: +13.23%
Worst: -12.98%
Trades: 120/136

30MIN

Win Rate: 45.2%
Avg Gain: -0.25%
Avg Winner: +2.58%
Avg Loser: -2.63%
Best: +11.64%
Worst: -13.40%
Trades: 118/141

60MIN

Win Rate: 45.2%
Avg Gain: -0.39%
Avg Winner: +3.01%
Avg Loser: -3.19%
Best: +11.74%
Worst: -11.04%
Trades: 118/143

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 43.3%
Avg Gain: -0.28%
Avg Winner: +4.40%
Avg Loser: -3.91%
Best: +27.64%
Worst: -16.08%
Trades: 114/147

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.86%
Best MFE: +28.43%
Avg Time to MFE: 108 min

On average, RUN alerts reach +3.86% profit potential within 108 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.58%
Worst MAE: -9.13%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.58%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.44:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.44x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 263 alerts, RUN typically reaches +3.86% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 263
Gap Up % 36.5%
Avg Gap -0.14%
Best Gap +3.36%

🏭 Sector Comparison: MISCELLANEOUS ELECTRICAL MACHINERY, EQUIPMENT & SUPPLIES

How RUN compares to 24 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
RUN: -0.10% Sector: -0.46% +0.37%
EOD Gain
RUN: -0.27% Sector: +197.82% -198.09%
Avg MFE
RUN: +3.85% Sector: +6.28% -2.43%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical RUN alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-12 09:27:27 $7.88 +1.82% +1.33% +2.41% +2.60% +1.52% +3.81% +0.25% +0.76% WIN
2025-02-07 09:29:05 $8.48 -0.53% - +0.59% +0.12% -0.12% +1.18% -2.59% +0.12% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:29:05 $8.61 +0.35% +1.86% +3.02% +5.45% +2.21% +7.78% -0.70% -0.46% WIN
2025-01-29 09:27:52 $9.34 +0.80% +1.50% +3.75% +6.80% +0.54% +7.07% -0.32% +0.43% WIN
2025-01-27 09:25:27 $9.89 +3.14% +2.07% +4.04% +4.90% +3.03% +5.51% -0.30% +3.13% WIN
2025-01-23 09:26:59 $8.45 - -1.66% -1.49% -1.12% +10.53% +10.83% -2.72% -0.47% -
2025-01-15 09:29:38 $10.09 +0.59% -0.99% -1.04% -0.35% -4.56% +3.57% -0.30% +0.10% WIN
2025-01-13 09:29:47 $9.82 -2.60% -4.07% -2.44% -5.04% -0.92% +0.10% -5.60% -0.20% LOSS
2025-01-10 09:25:24 $10.93 -0.36% -2.31% -4.89% -5.49% -8.14% +0.64% -1.19% -0.64% LOSS
2025-01-07 09:26:26 $11.38 -0.40% +2.55% +2.90% +1.49% -0.09% +4.39% -2.02% -0.26% LOSS
2025-01-06 09:27:50 $10.97 -0.14% -0.64% -0.32% +0.64% - +4.36% -2.19% -0.18% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:29:34 $9.16 +0.93% +0.55% +1.53% +2.89% +7.75% +9.50% -1.64% -0.11% WIN
2024-12-19 09:28:42 $9.33 +1.82% +1.30% +2.47% +0.27% -2.14% +3.75% -0.91% -0.21% WIN
2024-11-25 09:28:52 $10.76 +1.21% +0.51% +0.46% +2.00% +7.06% +9.11% -1.02% +1.12% WIN
2024-11-22 09:28:45 $10.01 +0.30% +1.80% +3.80% +3.30% +5.00% +6.49% -0.10% -0.10% WIN
2024-11-13 09:25:32 $9.85 +1.62% +1.73% +1.91% +3.76% +4.26% +6.29% -0.81% -0.71% WIN
2024-11-11 09:27:09 $10.29 -3.60% -1.17% +0.47% +1.60% -0.58% +4.18% -3.89% -0.87% LOSS
2024-11-08 09:28:09 $11.6 -7.24% -7.75% -9.14% -11.04% -11.81% +1.17% -3.53% -0.69% LOSS
2024-11-07 09:27:02 $12.15 -1.23% -1.19% -1.19% -2.76% -4.53% +1.07% -4.53% -0.82% LOSS
2024-11-06 09:29:16 $14.18 -4.20% -12.98% -13.40% -10.72% -16.08% +1.55% -3.24% +0.21% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ RUN Shows Negative Expectancy

With 46.0% win rate and -0.10% average gain, RUN alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider RUN for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze RUN with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for RUN. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, RUN historically offers an average upside of +3.86% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 RUN Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 46.0%, RUN shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests RUN may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: RUN shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.10%). This suggests RUN is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.