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SAVA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 64 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-10 → 2025-01-08

⚠️ Small sample size (64 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jul 14, 2000 🔗 www.cassavasciences.com
💰 Market Cap: $106.3M 👥 Employees: 30
Cassava Sciences Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company engaged in developing a scientific approach for the treatment and detection of Alzheimer's disease. Its therapeutic product candidate is called simufilam, and it is a novel treatment for Alzheimer's disease; and investigational diagnostic product candidate is called SavaDx and it is a novel way to detect the presence of Alzheimer's disease from a small sample of blood, possibly years before the overt appearance of clinical symptoms. It is currently conducting two randomized placebo-controlled Phase 3 clinical trials of oral simufilam in patients with Alzheimer's disease dementia. It has one business segment: the development of novel drugs and diagnostics.
📊
64
Total Alerts
🎯
42.2%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.42%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+7.94%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 42.2%
Avg Gain: -0.42%
Avg Winner: +1.80%
Avg Loser: -2.04%
Best: +5.90%
Worst: -6.82%
Trades: 27/37

15MIN

Win Rate: 42.2%
Avg Gain: -0.82%
Avg Winner: +3.67%
Avg Loser: -4.21%
Best: +9.03%
Worst: -12.25%
Trades: 27/36

30MIN

Win Rate: 42.2%
Avg Gain: -0.56%
Avg Winner: +5.65%
Avg Loser: -5.09%
Best: +12.38%
Worst: -15.25%
Trades: 27/37

60MIN

Win Rate: 42.2%
Avg Gain: -1.00%
Avg Winner: +5.82%
Avg Loser: -5.98%
Best: +19.46%
Worst: -18.86%
Trades: 27/37

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 34.4%
Avg Gain: -7.06%
Avg Winner: +9.30%
Avg Loser: -15.64%
Best: +30.90%
Worst: -42.48%
Trades: 22/42

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +7.94%
Best MFE: +57.46%
Avg Time to MFE: 88 min

On average, SAVA alerts reach +7.94% profit potential within 88 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.48%
Worst MAE: -8.34%
Avg Time to MAE: 6 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.48%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.2:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.2x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 64 alerts, SAVA typically reaches +7.94% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 6.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 64
Gap Up % 26.6%
Avg Gap -0.40%
Best Gap +2.21%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

How SAVA compares to 381 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
SAVA: -0.42% Sector: -0.32% -0.10%
EOD Gain
SAVA: -7.06% Sector: +4480411.22% -4480418.29%
Avg MFE
SAVA: +7.94% Sector: +7.56% +0.38%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SAVA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-08 09:25:10 $2.95 +0.24% -5.59% -5.85% -4.44% -4.24% +1.69% -1.02% -1.02% WIN
2025-01-07 09:29:23 $3.0 -1.62% +1.70% +2.70% +2.66% +0.67% +6.00% -4.33% -0.33% LOSS
2025-01-06 09:26:55 $2.91 -2.06% -0.87% -0.86% -0.66% +1.03% +8.25% -3.44% +0.69% LOSS
2024-12-27 09:27:20 $2.58 -1.74% -1.55% +2.32% -2.71% -3.10% +2.33% -4.26% -1.55% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:29:20 $2.25 +0.22% +0.89% -0.32% +0.48% +4.44% +7.11% -0.89% -0.44% WIN
2024-12-10 09:27:03 $2.96 -1.35% - +0.17% +1.02% -2.36% +2.70% -2.48% -0.68% LOSS
2024-12-09 09:25:26 $3.25 -1.48% -3.69% -2.63% -4.46% -9.54% - -0.90% -1.23% LOSS
2024-12-05 09:29:58 $2.93 -0.34% +0.51% +4.27% +3.92% +4.44% +9.21% -5.12% - LOSS
2024-12-04 09:28:40 $3.32 -1.20% -1.81% -0.46% -2.41% -11.14% +1.51% -2.71% - LOSS
2024-12-03 09:27:27 $3.45 -1.74% -2.46% -4.64% -5.65% -2.90% +2.90% -5.80% -1.45% LOSS
2024-12-02 09:29:04 $3.82 -4.86% -5.24% -8.64% -8.12% -9.82% -0.68% -2.88% -1.31% LOSS
2024-11-29 09:25:03 $3.96 -1.01% -4.04% -3.16% -2.02% -3.03% +1.01% -4.80% -0.76% LOSS
2024-11-27 09:26:30 $3.78 +1.32% +4.76% +5.03% +3.44% +5.29% +9.79% -1.85% -1.32% WIN
2024-11-26 09:25:26 $4.34 -2.51% -5.18% -6.65% -8.52% -11.87% +1.15% -0.69% -0.58% LOSS
2024-11-25 09:28:21 $3.97 +1.76% -3.02% +8.06% +2.52% +8.19% +22.17% -6.80% +1.26% WIN
2024-11-22 09:25:53 $31.0 +0.73% -4.37% -11.48% -11.33% -14.58% +1.29% -1.39% +1.16% WIN
2024-10-08 09:26:51 $26.99 +1.15% +6.34% +12.38% +8.14% -3.48% +15.71% - +0.93% WIN
2024-09-27 09:29:47 $28.27 -6.08% +0.35% +2.72% +2.69% +0.76% +7.29% -7.68% -0.69% LOSS
2024-08-08 09:29:34 $29.14 -5.40% -5.39% -10.14% -13.74% -10.71% +5.22% -1.81% -1.34% LOSS
2024-08-06 09:29:40 $37.22 -6.82% -12.25% -11.04% -13.81% -18.08% +2.65% -0.99% -0.56% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ SAVA Shows Negative Expectancy

With 42.2% win rate and -0.42% average gain, SAVA alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider SAVA for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze SAVA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SAVA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SAVA historically offers an average upside of +7.94% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SAVA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 42.2%, SAVA shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests SAVA may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: SAVA shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.42%). This suggests SAVA is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.