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TMQ Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 3 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-05-03 → 2024-11-07

⚠️ Small sample size (3 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Trilogy Metals Inc GOLD AND SILVER ORES (SIC 1040)
📍 NYSE American 📅 IPO: Apr 25, 2012 🔗 www.trilogymetals.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.06B 👥 Employees: 5
Trilogy Metals Inc is an exploration stage company engaged in mineral exploration. The company focuses on exploring and developing its mineral resource properties, which include the Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects (UKMP or UKMP Projects), in the Ambler mining district located in Alaska, the United States. Its properties include the Arctic copper-zinc-gold-silver project and other mineralized targets within a volcanogenic massive sulfide belt, and it also has a bornite carbonate-hosted copper project.
📊
3
Total Alerts
🎯
66.7%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.09%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+26.21%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: -0.09%
Avg Winner: +1.02%
Avg Loser: -2.31%
Best: +1.98%
Worst: -2.31%
Trades: 2/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: +2.11%
Avg Winner: +16.52%
Avg Loser: -5.10%
Best: +16.52%
Worst: -7.89%
Trades: 1/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: +13.04%
Avg Winner: +46.13%
Avg Loser: -3.51%
Best: +46.13%
Worst: -4.70%
Trades: 1/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +5.62%
Avg Winner: +11.79%
Avg Loser: -6.73%
Best: +22.66%
Worst: -6.73%
Trades: 2/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +9.24%
Avg Winner: +15.39%
Avg Loser: -3.06%
Best: +29.79%
Worst: -3.06%
Trades: 2/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +26.21%
Best MFE: +64.14%
Avg Time to MFE: 94 min

On average, TMQ alerts reach +26.21% profit potential within 94 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -4.46%
Worst MAE: -8.91%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 4.46%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

5.88:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 5.88x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 3 alerts, TMQ typically reaches +26.21% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 21.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 3
Gap Up % 66.7%
Avg Gap +0.89%
Best Gap +3.96%

🏭 Sector Comparison: GOLD AND SILVER ORES

How TMQ compares to 14 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
TMQ: -0.09% Sector: -0.32% +0.23%
EOD Gain
TMQ: +9.24% Sector: +146.19% -136.95%
Avg MFE
TMQ: +26.21% Sector: +3.74% +22.47%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TMQ alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-07 09:29:13 $1.01 +1.98% -7.89% -4.70% -6.73% +0.99% +8.91% -8.91% +3.96% WIN
2024-11-06 09:29:07 $0.79 +0.06% +16.52% +46.13% +22.66% +29.79% +64.14% -1.39% +1.79% WIN
2023-05-03 09:27:00 $0.65 -2.31% -2.31% -2.31% +0.92% -3.06% +5.58% -3.08% -3.08% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ TMQ Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 66.7% win rate, TMQ has -0.09% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making TMQ profitable.

🔧 Fix TMQ Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze TMQ with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TMQ. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TMQ historically offers an average upside of +26.21% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TMQ Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 66.7%, TMQ shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-2.31%) outweigh average wins (+1.02%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: TMQ shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.09%). This suggests TMQ is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.