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TXMD Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 63 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-01-03

⚠️ Small sample size (63 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jan 28, 2002 🔗 www.therapeuticsmd.com
💰 Market Cap: $30.2M 👥 Employees: 1
TherapeuticsMD Inc is a pharmaceutical royalty company, currently receiving royalties on products licensed to pharmaceutical organizations that possess commercial capabilities in the relevant territories. The company and its subsidiaries (i) granted Mayne Pharma an exclusive license to commercialize its IMVEXXY, BIJUVA and prescription prenatal vitamin products sold under the BocaGreenMD and vitaMedMD brands (collectively, the "Licensed Products") in the United States and its possessions and territories, (ii) assigned to Mayne Pharma its exclusive license to commercialize ANNOVERA (together with the Licensed Products, collectively, the "Products") in the United States and its possessions and territories.
📊
63
Total Alerts
🎯
39.7%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.16%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+6.61%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 39.7%
Avg Gain: -0.16%
Avg Winner: +2.67%
Avg Loser: -2.41%
Best: +27.33%
Worst: -9.05%
Trades: 25/32

15MIN

Win Rate: 31.7%
Avg Gain: -0.68%
Avg Winner: +4.37%
Avg Loser: -3.10%
Best: +23.83%
Worst: -7.81%
Trades: 20/42

30MIN

Win Rate: 27.0%
Avg Gain: -0.99%
Avg Winner: +5.90%
Avg Loser: -3.62%
Best: +31.80%
Worst: -10.35%
Trades: 17/45

60MIN

Win Rate: 28.6%
Avg Gain: -1.94%
Avg Winner: +5.35%
Avg Loser: -4.86%
Best: +28.50%
Worst: -12.76%
Trades: 18/45

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 25.4%
Avg Gain: -1.27%
Avg Winner: +9.60%
Avg Loser: -5.19%
Best: +33.51%
Worst: -14.95%
Trades: 16/45

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +6.61%
Best MFE: +41.86%
Avg Time to MFE: 100 min

On average, TXMD alerts reach +6.61% profit potential within 100 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.18%
Worst MAE: -10.44%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.18%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.04:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.04x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 63 alerts, TXMD typically reaches +6.61% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 5.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 63
Gap Up % 31.7%
Avg Gap -0.77%
Best Gap +4.65%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

How TXMD compares to 381 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
TXMD: -0.16% Sector: -0.32% +0.15%
EOD Gain
TXMD: -1.27% Sector: +4480411.22% -4480412.49%
Avg MFE
TXMD: +6.61% Sector: +7.56% -0.95%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TXMD alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-03 09:25:39 $1.72 +27.33% +23.83% +14.49% +7.56% -14.53% +41.86% -1.16% +4.65% WIN
2022-12-05 09:25:00 $4.65 +0.86% +7.53% +7.53% +1.49% +10.11% +30.54% -3.66% -2.15% WIN
2022-08-15 09:25:00 $10.5 +3.52% +6.38% +6.95% +6.64% -12.00% +11.33% -1.43% - WIN
2022-08-02 09:25:00 $8.11 +0.92% -2.34% +0.74% +2.22% +16.52% +17.02% -2.71% - WIN
2022-08-01 09:25:00 $7.11 +0.14% -1.27% +7.74% +12.66% +19.69% +35.16% -4.64% -4.23% WIN
2022-07-14 09:25:00 $4.66 -1.25% -1.50% -0.21% +1.93% +13.30% +23.18% -3.33% -0.86% LOSS
2022-07-13 09:25:00 $4.5 -1.00% +6.00% +0.22% -8.76% +18.44% +25.56% -10.44% -1.33% LOSS
2022-07-12 09:25:00 $8.06 -3.97% +0.37% -1.97% -6.45% +2.61% +10.79% -7.57% -2.73% LOSS
2022-07-06 09:25:00 $9.42 +0.53% -0.32% +0.21% +0.74% +3.93% +4.99% -2.44% +0.21% WIN
2022-06-02 09:25:00 $9.9 - -0.39% -0.10% +0.30% +0.61% +0.61% -0.71% -0.10% -
2022-06-01 09:25:00 $9.94 -0.80% -1.41% -0.36% -0.82% - +0.30% -2.92% -0.30% LOSS
2022-05-31 09:25:00 $9.33 +1.41% +1.38% +3.00% +3.97% +6.43% +7.07% -2.25% +2.25% WIN
2022-05-24 09:25:00 $2.4 -1.40% -7.08% -10.35% -12.09% -10.42% - -1.25% -1.25% LOSS
2022-05-23 09:25:00 $3.01 -2.02% -7.81% -7.09% -12.76% -14.95% +1.99% +1.33% -0.33% LOSS
2022-05-06 09:25:00 $0.17 +2.34% -2.63% -6.08% -5.56% -10.35% +3.33% - +2.92% WIN
2022-05-05 09:25:00 $0.18 -0.33% -1.58% -2.17% -2.07% -6.14% +0.11% -0.43% +0.11% LOSS
2022-05-04 09:25:00 $0.19 -1.48% -3.69% -4.06% -4.00% -3.42% +0.11% -2.42% +0.11% LOSS
2022-05-03 09:25:00 $0.19 +0.99% +0.68% -0.73% -2.04% -2.30% +3.08% -0.63% +0.57% WIN
2022-05-02 09:25:00 $0.2 - -6.02% -5.53% -7.00% -9.20% +0.34% -2.10% +0.34% -
2022-04-29 09:25:00 $0.2 +3.82% +4.06% +4.51% +1.54% -0.05% +5.80% - +2.97% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ TXMD Shows Negative Expectancy

With 39.7% win rate and -0.16% average gain, TXMD alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider TXMD for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze TXMD with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TXMD. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TXMD historically offers an average upside of +6.61% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TXMD Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 39.7%, TXMD shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests TXMD may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: TXMD shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.16%). This suggests TXMD is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.