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VAL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 2 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-09-15 → 2023-12-05

⚠️ Small sample size (2 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: May 03, 2021 🔗 www.valaris.com
💰 Market Cap: $3.78B 👥 Employees: 5,642
Valaris Ltd is an offshore contract drilling company. The company provides offshore contract drilling services to the international oil and gas industry with operations in almost every offshore market across six continents. Its business consists of four operating segments: Floaters, which includes drillships and semisubmersible rigs; Jackups; ARO; and Other, which consists of management services on rigs owned by third parties. It generates the majority of its revenue from the Floaters segment.
📊
2
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.04%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+0.84%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.34%
Avg Loser: -0.41%
Best: +0.34%
Worst: -0.41%
Trades: 1/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.23%
Avg Winner: +0.16%
Avg Loser: -0.62%
Best: +0.16%
Worst: -0.62%
Trades: 1/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.13%
Avg Winner: +0.61%
Avg Loser: -0.87%
Best: +0.61%
Worst: -0.87%
Trades: 1/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.25%
Avg Winner: +1.19%
Avg Loser: -0.68%
Best: +1.19%
Worst: -0.68%
Trades: 1/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -1.50%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -1.50%
Best: -0.32%
Worst: -2.68%
Trades: 0/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.84%
Best MFE: +1.42%
Avg Time to MFE: 25 min

On average, VAL alerts reach +0.84% profit potential within 25 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.27%
Worst MAE: -0.41%
Avg Time to MAE: 7 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.27%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.12:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.12x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 2 alerts, VAL typically reaches +0.84% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -0.22%
Best Gap -0.04%

🏭 Sector Comparison: DRILLING OIL & GAS WELLS

How VAL compares to 7 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
VAL: -0.04% Sector: -0.07% +0.04%
EOD Gain
VAL: -1.50% Sector: -0.03% -1.47%
Avg MFE
VAL: +0.84% Sector: +2.96% -2.11%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical VAL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-12-05 09:25:00 $68.68 -0.41% -0.62% -0.87% -0.68% -2.68% +0.26% -0.41% -0.41% LOSS
2023-09-15 09:28:00 $75.92 +0.34% +0.16% +0.61% +1.19% -0.32% +1.42% -0.13% -0.04% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ VAL Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.04% average gain, VAL alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider VAL for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze VAL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for VAL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, VAL historically offers an average upside of +0.84% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 VAL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, VAL shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests VAL may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: VAL shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.04%). This suggests VAL is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.