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VGZ Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-21 → 2024-09-30

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE American 📅 IPO: Jun 18, 1986 🔗 www.vistagold.com
💰 Market Cap: $363.5M 👥 Employees: 13
Vista Gold Corp is a gold mining company. It is engaged in the evaluation, acquisition, exploration, and advancement of gold exploration and potential development projects. The company evaluate, acquire, explore and advance gold exploration and potential development projects for gold production or value adding strategic transactions. The Company has one reportable segment: Australia. The Australia segment conducts exploration, development, care and maintenance activities at Vista's asset, the Mt Todd gold project in Northern Territory, Australia.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
75.0%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+9.63%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+11.19%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -1.62%
Avg Winner: +4.26%
Avg Loser: -3.58%
Best: +4.26%
Worst: -5.39%
Trades: 1/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.27%
Avg Winner: +3.19%
Avg Loser: -2.65%
Best: +3.49%
Worst: -3.19%
Trades: 2/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +3.05%
Avg Winner: +8.32%
Avg Loser: -2.21%
Best: +13.14%
Worst: -2.25%
Trades: 2/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +5.14%
Avg Winner: +9.14%
Avg Loser: -2.87%
Best: +14.34%
Worst: -2.87%
Trades: 2/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 75.0%
Avg Gain: +9.63%
Avg Winner: +12.83%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +28.57%
Worst: +0.00%
Trades: 3/0

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +11.19%
Best MFE: +31.40%
Avg Time to MFE: 211 min

On average, VGZ alerts reach +11.19% profit potential within 211 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.14%
Worst MAE: -5.39%
Avg Time to MAE: 77 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.14%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.56:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.56x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, VGZ typically reaches +11.19% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 9.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 25.0%
Avg Gap -0.27%
Best Gap +8.51%

🏭 Sector Comparison: GOLD AND SILVER ORES

How VGZ compares to 14 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
VGZ: -1.38% Sector: -0.32% -1.06%
EOD Gain
VGZ: +11.56% Sector: +146.19% -134.63%
Avg MFE
VGZ: +13.30% Sector: +3.74% +9.56%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical VGZ alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-09-30 09:28:59 $0.75 -2.35% -2.11% -2.17% - +3.82% +4.84% -2.88% -2.37% LOSS
2024-08-05 09:26:16 $0.47 +4.26% +3.49% +3.49% +3.94% +6.11% +8.51% - +8.51% WIN
2023-12-14 09:25:00 $0.35 -3.00% +2.89% +13.14% +14.34% +28.57% +31.40% -4.29% -4.29% LOSS
2022-03-21 09:25:00 $1.02 -5.39% -3.19% -2.25% -2.87% - - -5.39% -2.94% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 75.0% Baseline on VGZ

The 75.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push VGZ's performance to 75%+.

Optimize VGZ Strategy →

Why Analyze VGZ with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for VGZ. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, VGZ historically offers an average upside of +11.19% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 VGZ Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 75.0%, VGZ shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show VGZ performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +9.63%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.