$BB seeking alpha Jun 25, 2026

$BB +22.10% — what the base rate says

The Boss FILTRIX Market Desk

The retail herd is currently treating Micron ($MU) like the second coming of the printing press after its massive $41.5B revenue report. High-fives all around the semiconductor boards. But look under the hood. BlackBerry ($BB) is also riding a 22% earnings gap, and yet historical data paints a much colder picture. On the other side of the tape, Jefferies ($JEF) is slipping 10% after its own report, demonstrating what happens when reality fails to meet the whisper numbers. When tech names gap up 15% or more on earnings, they close red 52% of the time over 337 historical instances. Momentum is a seductive drug, but the math doesn't care about your hype.

53% of these massive gaps end up fading. That is the statistical tax on chasing.

What the data showed

$BB +22.10% BlackBerry Limited · closed red 53% · green 47% (n=171) mcap $4.9B · float 586M shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
$AYI +20.34% Acuity Inc. · closed red 53% · green 47% (n=171)
$MU +16.70% Micron Technology, Inc. · closed red 52% · green 48% (n=337) mcap $1278.8B · float 1.1B shares · sector: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
$BMBL +6.62% Bumble Inc. mcap $386M · float 72M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
$MRK +3.74% Merck & Co., Inc. mcap $281.2B · float 2.5B shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
$CZR +2.79% Caesars Entertainment, Inc. mcap $6.0B · float 190M shares · sector: HOTELS & MOTELS
$XLV +1.65% State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF
$VHT +1.58% Vanguard Health Care Index Fund;ETF
$LLY +1.15% Eli Lilly and Company mcap $979.6B · float 847M shares · sector: PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
$TMUS +1.09% T-Mobile US, Inc. mcap $196.6B · float 506M shares · sector: RADIOTELEPHONE COMMUNICATIONS
$JEF -10.90% Jefferies Financial Group Inc. · closed red 54% · green 45% (n=618) mcap $12.7B · float 162M shares · sector: SECURITY BROKERS, DEALERS & FLOTATION COMPANIES
$WS -8.67% Worthington Steel, Inc.
$BAK -8.19% Braskem S.A. mcap $1.5B · float 203M shares
$FUL -6.25% H.B. Fuller Company mcap $3.5B · float 51M shares · sector: ADHESIVES & SEALANTS
$IOT -5.73% Samsara Inc. mcap $18.5B · float 356M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER INTEGRATED SYSTEMS DESIGN
$PLTR -5.00% Palantir Technologies Inc. mcap $308.0B · float 2.2B shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
$AAPL -4.58% Apple Inc. mcap $4377.0B · float 14.7B shares · sector: ELECTRONIC COMPUTERS
$AVAV -3.44% AeroVironment, Inc. mcap $8.6B · float 37M shares · sector: AIRCRAFT
$LDOS -2.85% Leidos Holdings, Inc. mcap $13.5B · float 128M shares · sector: SERVICES-COMPUTER INTEGRATED SYSTEMS DESIGN
$MSFT -2.65% Microsoft Corporation mcap $2818.3B · float 7.3B shares · sector: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

Before you chase the next earnings gap-up, run the historical odds on FILTRIX.net to see how often these setups actually hold their gains. Don't let FOMO write your trading plan. Discipline > FOMO.

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