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Ticker Report — Active Last signal ·

$AA

Trade-Ideas alerts 49.2% at EOD n=258 2022-01-05 → 2026-10-01

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Oct 18, 2016 🔗 www.alcoa.com
💰 Market Cap: $11.07B 👥 Employees: 14,900
Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company whose operations include bauxite mining, alumina refining, and manufacturing primary aluminum. It is one of the world's largest bauxite miners and alumina refiners by production volume, but sits outside the top-10 aluminum producers, a list dominated by Chinese companies. Profits are closely tied to prevailing commodity prices along the aluminum supply chain.Alcoa was the first mass producer of aluminum, launching the world-changing Hall-Heroult smelting process in the 1880s, making aluminum affordable. It listed as a public company in 1925. In 2016, Alcoa spun off its automotive and aerospace metal parts segment to focus on mining, smelting, and refining. It bought the 40% unowned balance of AWAC in mid-2024.
Total alerts
258
Trade-Ideas signal history
Win rate · EOD
49.2%
Best timeframe baseline
Avg gain · EOD
+0.01%
Per-alert expectancy
Avg MFE
+2.56%
Max potential excursion

Practice trading AA on historical setups — browse all patterns across all tickers →

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 43.8%
Avg Gain: -0.08%
Avg Winner: +0.89%
Avg Loser: -0.85%
Best: +3.46%
Worst: -3.70%
Trades: 113/142

15MIN

Win Rate: 43.0%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +1.62%
Avg Loser: -1.32%
Best: +6.78%
Worst: -5.62%
Trades: 111/146

30MIN

Win Rate: 48.1%
Avg Gain: +0.04%
Avg Winner: +1.80%
Avg Loser: -1.61%
Best: +9.62%
Worst: -6.55%
Trades: 124/133

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.8%
Avg Gain: +0.02%
Avg Winner: +2.08%
Avg Loser: -1.96%
Best: +13.75%
Worst: -7.19%
Trades: 126/131

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 49.2%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +2.54%
Avg Loser: -2.44%
Best: +11.36%
Worst: -9.92%
Trades: 127/131

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.56%
Best MFE: +17.88%
Avg Time to MFE: 117 min

On average, AA alerts reach +2.56% profit potential within 117 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.10%
Worst MAE: -6.86%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.10%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.32:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.32x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 258 alerts, AA typically reaches +2.56% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 258
Gap Up % 43.8%
Avg Gap -0.04%
Best Gap +2.20%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PRIMARY PRODUCTION OF ALUMINUM

How AA compares to 2 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AA: -0.08% Sector: -0.05% -0.02%
EOD Gain
AA: +0.01% Sector: -0.06% +0.07%
Avg MFE
AA: +2.56% Sector: +2.64% -0.08%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2026-10-01 09:25:00 $41.62 +0.12% -0.43% -0.48% -0.72% +1.06% +1.08% -1.47% -0.12% WIN
2026-09-21 09:25:00 $44.31 +0.88% +0.61% +0.72% +1.05% +0.74% +1.33% +0.11% +0.11% WIN
2026-09-10 09:25:00 $49.03 +1.36% +1.82% +1.27% +1.86% -1.48% +2.47% -0.10% +0.11% WIN
2026-08-13 09:25:00 $50.87 -1.03% -0.04% -0.35% -0.01% -2.52% +0.87% -1.55% -1.32% LOSS
2026-08-12 09:25:00 $54.42 +0.64% -2.06% -1.81% -1.85% -5.88% +1.16% -0.46% -0.04% WIN
2026-08-11 09:25:00 $53.21 +3.04% +1.56% +0.39% +0.55% +1.64% +3.18% +0.19% +0.55% WIN
2026-08-05 09:25:00 $47.7 +0.92% +0.17% +0.90% +1.13% -0.02% +1.57% +0.25% +0.27% WIN
2026-08-04 09:25:00 $45.69 +1.62% +1.75% +1.60% +1.12% +2.50% +2.93% +0.04% +0.51% WIN
2026-07-23 09:25:00 $46.0 +0.09% -0.50% -0.65% -1.30% -1.59% +1.07% -0.68% -0.30% WIN
2026-07-21 09:25:00 $44.4 -0.03% -1.61% -1.15% -1.26% -0.11% +0.74% -0.36% -0.02% LOSS
2026-07-20 09:25:00 $44.59 +0.70% -1.46% -1.17% -2.58% -2.49% +1.69% -0.52% -0.49% WIN
2026-07-17 09:25:00 $45.53 -0.76% -0.75% -0.95% -1.19% -3.40% +2.90% -0.84% +2.20% LOSS
2026-07-14 09:25:00 $49.89 +0.48% +0.84% +0.14% -0.68% -1.66% +1.95% -0.12% +0.60% WIN
2026-07-08 09:25:00 $47.98 +1.33% +2.40% +2.74% +2.44% +1.10% +3.55% -0.46% -0.17% WIN
2026-07-02 09:25:00 $48.23 +0.45% +3.36% +3.85% +3.40% +0.93% +5.18% -0.17% +0.91% WIN
2026-07-01 09:25:00 $49.0 -0.49% -3.71% -3.44% -3.10% -3.10% -0.02% -0.61% -0.32% LOSS
2026-06-24 09:25:00 $54.15 -2.01% -1.68% -1.67% -1.40% -3.42% -0.31% -2.99% -0.78% LOSS
2026-06-23 09:25:00 $55.2 -0.02% +0.17% -0.37% -0.40% -0.22% +1.88% +0.00% +0.93% LOSS
2026-06-15 09:25:00 $65.95 -3.70% -2.02% -2.70% -5.14% -2.71% +0.56% +0.00% +0.52% LOSS
2026-06-12 09:25:00 $69.01 +0.35% -1.01% -0.04% +0.16% -0.35% +1.62% +0.00% +0.96% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

Beat the 49.2% Baseline on AA

The 49.2% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and push AA's performance to 75%+.

Optimize AA Strategy →

Why Analyze AA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AA historically offers an average upside of +2.56% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 49.2%, AA shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show AA performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.01%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.