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AA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 201 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-05 → 2025-02-11

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Oct 18, 2016 🔗 www.alcoa.com
💰 Market Cap: $16.11B 👥 Employees: 230
Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company whose operations include bauxite mining, alumina refining, and manufacturing primary aluminum. It is the world's largest bauxite miner and alumina refiner by production volume, and the eighth-largest aluminum producer. Profits are closely tied to prevailing commodity prices along the aluminum supply chain.Alcoa was the first mass producer of aluminum, launching the world-changing Hall-Heroult smelting process in the 1880s, making aluminum affordable. It listed as a public company in 1925. In 2016, Alcoa spun off its automotive and aerospace metal parts segment to focus on mining, smelting, and refining. It bought the 40% unowned balance of AWAC in mid-2024, meaning refining assets are now predominantly wholly owned, as with smelting.
📊
201
Total Alerts
🎯
49.3%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
+0.14%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+2.62%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 41.8%
Avg Gain: -0.09%
Avg Winner: +0.91%
Avg Loser: -0.82%
Best: +3.46%
Worst: -3.52%
Trades: 84/114

15MIN

Win Rate: 43.8%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +1.64%
Avg Loser: -1.28%
Best: +6.78%
Worst: -5.62%
Trades: 88/112

30MIN

Win Rate: 49.3%
Avg Gain: +0.14%
Avg Winner: +1.88%
Avg Loser: -1.57%
Best: +9.62%
Worst: -5.64%
Trades: 99/101

60MIN

Win Rate: 49.3%
Avg Gain: +0.13%
Avg Winner: +2.21%
Avg Loser: -1.90%
Best: +13.75%
Worst: -7.19%
Trades: 99/101

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 49.3%
Avg Gain: +0.02%
Avg Winner: +2.63%
Avg Loser: -2.52%
Best: +11.36%
Worst: -9.92%
Trades: 99/102

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.62%
Best MFE: +17.88%
Avg Time to MFE: 123 min

On average, AA alerts reach +2.62% profit potential within 123 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.08%
Worst MAE: -5.16%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.08%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.43:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.43x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 201 alerts, AA typically reaches +2.62% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 201
Gap Up % 43.3%
Avg Gap -0.06%
Best Gap +1.72%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PRIMARY PRODUCTION OF ALUMINUM

How AA compares to 2 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AA: -0.09% Sector: -0.09% +0.01%
EOD Gain
AA: +0.02% Sector: -0.11% +0.13%
Avg MFE
AA: +2.62% Sector: +2.61% +0.01%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-11 09:26:06 $37.12 -0.47% +2.34% +1.72% +0.79% +0.13% +3.93% -1.08% -0.11% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:29:25 $37.5 -0.23% -1.02% +0.11% -0.19% -1.55% +0.27% -1.60% -0.35% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:26:58 $39.55 -1.11% -1.63% -1.39% -1.30% -1.95% +0.76% -0.78% +0.15% LOSS
2025-01-06 09:29:03 $35.78 +0.81% +0.96% +1.26% +1.87% +1.98% +3.62% +0.39% +0.61% WIN
2024-12-11 09:27:18 $40.28 -1.24% -0.50% -1.84% -1.97% -1.84% +0.05% -2.78% -1.32% LOSS
2024-12-10 09:26:43 $42.19 -0.70% -1.72% -1.73% -2.19% -2.61% -0.34% -0.85% -0.66% LOSS
2024-12-09 09:27:51 $43.8 -0.48% -0.16% +0.14% -0.68% -4.13% +2.13% -0.23% +0.71% LOSS
2024-11-15 09:26:57 $44.13 -1.04% -0.97% +0.35% +1.55% -0.25% +2.31% -1.86% -0.61% LOSS
2024-11-06 09:27:07 $42.78 +1.20% +0.14% +0.34% +2.66% +6.03% +7.60% -1.05% +0.51% WIN
2024-10-17 09:29:48 $43.11 -2.09% -2.56% -2.64% -3.69% -6.40% -0.37% -1.76% -0.72% LOSS
2024-10-11 09:26:37 $40.65 -0.11% -0.02% -0.34% +0.23% +0.91% +1.55% -1.06% - LOSS
2024-10-08 09:27:45 $38.49 -0.21% -1.22% -1.02% -2.44% -1.97% +0.60% -0.88% -0.18% LOSS
2024-09-26 09:25:14 $38.17 +1.24% +2.23% +1.98% +1.99% +2.91% +3.80% -0.45% +0.34% WIN
2024-09-19 09:27:23 $35.57 -1.91% -1.88% -0.66% -0.51% -1.83% +0.53% -1.04% -0.48% LOSS
2024-09-11 09:29:26 $28.84 -1.39% -0.81% - -0.87% +3.54% +3.71% -1.87% - LOSS
2024-08-21 09:29:23 $33.88 -0.10% -0.34% -1.17% -1.30% -1.74% +0.50% +0.06% +0.47% LOSS
2024-08-20 09:29:06 $34.0 +0.49% +1.91% +0.79% +0.47% -0.71% +2.21% -0.06% +0.29% WIN
2024-08-07 09:25:51 $30.01 +0.13% +0.60% +1.53% +0.10% -2.67% +1.70% -0.17% -0.03% WIN
2024-08-06 09:25:17 $28.64 -0.77% -0.89% -0.21% +1.01% +2.62% +3.49% -1.54% -0.49% LOSS
2024-08-05 09:27:15 $28.0 -1.34% -1.96% -1.29% -0.84% +1.57% +1.93% -3.14% -0.07% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 49.3% Baseline on AA

The 49.3% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push AA's performance to 75%+.

Optimize AA Strategy →

Why Analyze AA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AA historically offers an average upside of +2.62% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 49.3%, AA shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show AA performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.14%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.