Latest signal:
TLT Stock Analysis
Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 759 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14
🏢 Company Profile
📈 Performance by Timeframe
5MIN
15MIN
30MIN
60MIN
EOD (End of Day)
🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)
Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.
📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)
On average, TLT alerts reach +0.55% profit potential within 150 minutes.
📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)
Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.19%.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.84x the typical drawdown.
💡 Trading Insight: Based on 759 alerts, TLT typically reaches +0.55% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.4% to capture most of the move.
🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)
📋 Last 20 Alerts
Historical TLT alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.
| Date | Time | Price | 5min | 15min | 30min | 60min | EOD | MFE | MAE | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-14 | 09:26:00 | $89.37 | -0.08% | -0.04% | -0.03% | +0.09% | -0.25% | +0.35% | -0.15% | +0.01% | LOSS |
| 2025-02-13 | 09:26:10 | $88.14 | +0.02% | +0.10% | +0.06% | +0.21% | +0.61% | +0.85% | -0.08% | -0.06% | WIN |
| 2025-02-12 | 09:26:27 | $87.2 | +0.07% | -0.04% | -0.18% | -0.22% | +0.03% | +0.46% | -0.39% | +0.10% | WIN |
| 2025-02-11 | 09:26:42 | $88.49 | +0.08% | +0.06% | +0.13% | -0.06% | -0.07% | +0.21% | -0.02% | +0.05% | WIN |
| 2025-02-10 | 09:29:45 | $89.26 | +0.13% | +0.11% | +0.13% | +0.17% | -0.29% | +0.30% | -0.01% | +0.00% | WIN |
| 2025-02-07 | 09:26:52 | $89.19 | +0.08% | +0.04% | +0.05% | -0.08% | +0.09% | +0.29% | -0.29% | +0.06% | WIN |
| 2025-02-06 | 09:29:08 | $89.82 | +0.02% | +0.19% | +0.17% | +0.13% | +0.03% | +0.37% | -0.02% | +0.04% | WIN |
| 2025-02-05 | 09:25:44 | $89.3 | +0.22% | +0.14% | +0.32% | +0.36% | +0.66% | +0.98% | +0.01% | +0.17% | WIN |
| 2025-02-04 | 09:25:58 | $87.51 | +0.09% | +0.13% | +0.10% | +0.17% | +1.05% | +1.07% | -0.03% | +0.05% | WIN |
| 2025-02-03 | 09:28:49 | $88.54 | +0.02% | +0.02% | -0.01% | -0.17% | -0.43% | +0.63% | -0.19% | +0.04% | WIN |
| 2025-01-31 | 09:26:40 | $88.38 | +0.09% | +0.11% | +0.31% | +0.10% | -0.70% | +0.32% | -0.02% | - | WIN |
| 2025-01-30 | 09:25:20 | $88.42 | -0.03% | -0.03% | +0.14% | +0.17% | -0.09% | +0.32% | -0.09% | -0.01% | LOSS |
| 2025-01-29 | 09:26:08 | $88.4 | +0.05% | -0.11% | +0.18% | -0.01% | -0.44% | +0.24% | -0.15% | +0.03% | WIN |
| 2025-01-28 | 09:25:37 | $87.83 | +0.05% | +0.23% | +0.16% | -0.02% | +0.41% | +0.42% | -0.19% | +0.01% | WIN |
| 2025-01-27 | 09:25:37 | $88.14 | -0.10% | -0.09% | -0.20% | -0.10% | +0.12% | +0.33% | -0.33% | +0.02% | LOSS |
| 2025-01-24 | 09:26:03 | $86.75 | -0.01% | -0.08% | -0.09% | +0.26% | +0.54% | +0.61% | -0.17% | -0.03% | LOSS |
| 2025-01-23 | 09:29:45 | $86.66 | +0.20% | +0.27% | +0.14% | +0.07% | +0.20% | +0.38% | -0.06% | -0.02% | WIN |
| 2025-01-22 | 09:28:22 | $87.87 | -0.07% | -0.14% | -0.08% | -0.15% | -0.41% | +0.13% | -0.17% | - | LOSS |
| 2025-01-21 | 09:28:54 | $87.89 | -0.22% | -0.10% | -0.22% | -0.01% | +0.09% | +0.32% | -0.30% | - | LOSS |
| 2025-01-17 | 09:26:31 | $87.4 | -0.02% | -0.16% | -0.15% | +0.04% | -0.24% | +0.09% | -0.06% | +0.03% | LOSS |
Table Metrics Explained:
- 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
- MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
- MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
- Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
- Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise
⚠️ TLT Shows Negative Expectancy
With 49.7% win rate and +0.00% average gain, TLT alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider TLT for short-selling strategies.
📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →Why Analyze TLT with FILTRIX?
🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation
We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TLT. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.
💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis
How much is left in the move? On winning days, TLT historically offers an average upside of +0.55% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.
📊 TLT Momentum Personality
With a baseline win rate of 49.7%, TLT shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.
⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing
⚠️ Caution Advised: TLT shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at +0.00%). This suggests TLT is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.