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AAP Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 41 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-18 → 2024-12-02

⚠️ Small sample size (41 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Nov 29, 2001 🔗 www.advanceautoparts.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.81B 👥 Employees: 62,800
Advance Auto Parts is a leading auto-parts retailer in North America with more than 4,000 store and branch locations. About half of the firm's sales are geared toward the professional channel, with the remaining sales in the do-it-yourself market. Through its vast store footprint and distribution network, Advance manages thousands of stock-keeping units for various vehicle makes and models. The retailer primarily competes on the basis of inventory availability and service speed, making the operating efficiency of its hub-and-spoke distribution model critical to meeting customer needs.
📊
41
Total Alerts
🎯
56.1%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.34%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.44%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 56.1%
Avg Gain: +0.34%
Avg Winner: +1.31%
Avg Loser: -0.95%
Best: +4.96%
Worst: -2.96%
Trades: 23/17

15MIN

Win Rate: 56.1%
Avg Gain: +0.31%
Avg Winner: +1.62%
Avg Loser: -1.37%
Best: +6.35%
Worst: -3.78%
Trades: 23/18

30MIN

Win Rate: 53.7%
Avg Gain: +0.52%
Avg Winner: +2.14%
Avg Loser: -1.35%
Best: +7.69%
Worst: -4.98%
Trades: 22/19

60MIN

Win Rate: 56.1%
Avg Gain: +0.55%
Avg Winner: +2.24%
Avg Loser: -1.61%
Best: +12.20%
Worst: -4.28%
Trades: 23/18

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 46.3%
Avg Gain: -0.37%
Avg Winner: +2.14%
Avg Loser: -2.54%
Best: +7.13%
Worst: -7.72%
Trades: 19/22

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.44%
Best MFE: +12.98%
Avg Time to MFE: 103 min

On average, AAP alerts reach +2.44% profit potential within 103 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.93%
Worst MAE: -6.68%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.93%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.63:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.63x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 41 alerts, AAP typically reaches +2.44% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 41
Gap Up % 46.3%
Avg Gap +0.04%
Best Gap +1.85%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-AUTO & HOME SUPPLY STORES

How AAP compares to 3 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AAP: +0.34% Sector: +0.30% +0.04%
EOD Gain
AAP: -0.37% Sector: -6.29% +5.92%
Avg MFE
AAP: +2.44% Sector: +2.52% -0.08%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AAP alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-02 09:27:15 $41.52 +0.48% +2.29% +2.22% +1.98% +2.60% +4.24% -0.26% +1.11% WIN
2024-11-14 09:28:30 $43.03 +3.85% -0.91% +3.74% +1.91% -4.25% +5.63% -0.63% +1.07% WIN
2024-11-01 09:27:54 $35.87 +0.53% +0.17% +0.56% +1.41% +1.06% +1.51% -0.39% -0.20% WIN
2024-08-22 09:26:27 $47.7 +4.96% +6.35% +7.69% +12.20% +7.13% +12.98% -1.05% +1.47% WIN
2024-05-29 09:26:14 $64.95 -2.96% -3.49% +0.11% +2.39% -3.80% +4.48% -6.68% -0.97% LOSS
2024-02-28 09:28:41 $65.79 -0.93% +3.08% +2.82% +2.29% +0.96% +5.59% -2.98% -0.09% LOSS
2023-12-04 09:28:00 $53.98 +1.27% +3.18% +1.86% +1.61% +3.06% +3.73% -0.31% +0.26% WIN
2023-11-28 09:28:00 $51.03 -0.56% -0.14% +0.33% +0.37% +1.20% +1.43% -0.94% -0.33% LOSS
2023-11-15 09:27:00 $55.15 -2.90% +1.72% +7.25% +6.89% +0.94% +10.23% -4.32% -0.63% LOSS
2023-09-12 09:29:00 $60.5 -0.00% +1.46% -0.54% -1.66% -5.02% +1.62% -1.37% +0.15% LOSS
2023-09-07 09:26:00 $66.45 +0.12% -0.62% -1.23% -2.39% -4.61% +0.25% -0.30% - WIN
2023-09-01 09:25:00 $69.02 +0.31% -0.67% -0.48% -1.99% -1.98% +0.52% +0.19% +0.26% WIN
2023-08-28 09:27:00 $64.0 +1.49% +1.20% +1.41% +1.97% +2.55% +3.11% -0.12% +0.08% WIN
2023-08-23 09:29:00 $67.6 +4.51% +3.45% +5.27% +3.49% +2.72% +5.75% -0.16% -0.16% WIN
2023-08-17 09:25:00 $70.45 -0.28% +0.06% -0.78% -0.47% -1.41% +0.67% -1.06% -0.28% LOSS
2023-08-11 09:27:00 $70.97 +0.54% +1.53% +1.40% +1.62% +1.85% +2.23% -0.48% -0.14% WIN
2023-08-03 09:25:00 $69.69 +0.47% +0.77% -0.83% +0.09% +3.36% +3.39% -0.90% +0.63% WIN
2023-07-26 09:29:00 $71.27 +1.37% +2.66% +1.70% +2.53% +2.55% +3.03% +0.20% +0.32% WIN
2023-07-24 09:28:00 $70.73 +0.62% +1.60% +0.25% +0.78% +2.87% +3.05% +0.10% +0.10% WIN
2023-07-10 09:29:00 $67.3 +1.68% +1.95% +3.13% +2.23% +2.23% +4.07% -0.59% -0.22% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 56.1% Baseline on AAP

The 56.1% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push AAP's performance to 75%+.

Optimize AAP Strategy →

Why Analyze AAP with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AAP. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AAP historically offers an average upside of +2.44% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AAP Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 56.1%, AAP shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show AAP performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.34%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.