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Latest signal:

ADM Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 46 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-01-29

⚠️ Small sample size (46 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Archer Daniels Midland Company FATS & OILS (SIC 2070)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Sep 10, 1945 🔗 www.adm.com
💰 Market Cap: $32.44B 👥 Employees: 44,043
Archer-Daniels-Midland is a major processor of oilseeds, corn, wheat, and other agricultural commodities. The company is also one of the largest grain merchandisers through its extensive network of logistical assets to store and transport crops around the globe. ADM also runs a nutrition business that focuses on both human and animal ingredients and is a large producer of corn-based sweeteners, starches, and ethanol.
📊
46
Total Alerts
🎯
53.3%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.04%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.17%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 41.3%
Avg Gain: -0.13%
Avg Winner: +0.56%
Avg Loser: -0.62%
Best: +1.34%
Worst: -1.61%
Trades: 19/27

15MIN

Win Rate: 41.3%
Avg Gain: -0.21%
Avg Winner: +0.79%
Avg Loser: -0.91%
Best: +1.80%
Worst: -4.20%
Trades: 19/27

30MIN

Win Rate: 45.7%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +1.03%
Avg Loser: -0.94%
Best: +2.67%
Worst: -4.60%
Trades: 21/25

60MIN

Win Rate: 45.7%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +1.00%
Avg Loser: -0.88%
Best: +2.87%
Worst: -2.47%
Trades: 21/24

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 53.3%
Avg Gain: +0.04%
Avg Winner: +1.14%
Avg Loser: -1.29%
Best: +3.01%
Worst: -3.71%
Trades: 24/20

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.17%
Best MFE: +4.02%
Avg Time to MFE: 121 min

On average, ADM alerts reach +1.17% profit potential within 121 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.44%
Worst MAE: -3.09%
Avg Time to MAE: 14 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.44%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.63:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.63x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 46 alerts, ADM typically reaches +1.17% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 46
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap +0.01%
Best Gap +0.70%

🏭 Sector Comparison: FATS & OILS

How ADM compares to 3 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ADM: -0.15% Sector: -0.09% -0.07%
EOD Gain
ADM: +0.04% Sector: -0.05% +0.08%
Avg MFE
ADM: +1.16% Sector: +1.27% -0.11%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ADM alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-29 09:25:52 $50.55 +0.02% +0.67% +1.05% +1.41% +2.20% +3.09% -0.25% -0.20% WIN
2024-12-03 09:28:39 $54.25 -0.29% -0.07% -0.48% - -1.99% +0.55% +0.22% +0.46% LOSS
2024-12-02 09:26:16 $54.4 -0.31% -1.21% -1.29% -0.90% -0.24% +0.29% -1.60% -0.33% LOSS
2024-11-05 09:28:42 $50.48 -1.16% -2.18% -0.20% -0.58% +3.01% +3.03% -3.09% +0.04% LOSS
2024-07-01 09:27:30 $60.64 +0.35% +0.35% +0.91% +0.03% - +1.27% -0.11% +0.30% WIN
2024-05-21 09:27:31 $60.79 +0.31% +0.86% +1.03% +0.51% +0.79% +1.25% +0.03% +0.07% WIN
2024-05-14 09:27:42 $63.0 -0.53% -1.72% -1.19% -1.71% -2.11% -0.03% -0.51% -0.03% LOSS
2024-05-06 09:28:33 $59.16 -0.05% +0.02% +0.39% +0.07% +1.74% +1.83% -0.41% +0.52% LOSS
2024-05-01 09:26:08 $58.21 +1.34% +1.46% +1.63% +1.77% +0.27% +2.68% +0.55% +0.58% WIN
2024-03-12 09:29:14 $56.8 +0.72% +1.80% +1.74% +0.92% +0.48% +2.92% +0.35% +0.49% WIN
2024-03-01 09:29:53 $54.78 -1.61% -1.83% -1.46% -0.53% -0.99% -0.05% -2.25% -0.26% LOSS
2024-02-14 09:25:36 $52.85 -0.57% -0.11% -0.13% -0.06% +0.79% +0.89% -0.76% -0.57% LOSS
2024-02-07 09:27:39 $52.9 -0.17% -0.38% -0.30% -0.08% -0.04% +0.51% -1.17% -0.51% LOSS
2024-02-05 09:27:41 $55.0 -1.41% -1.84% -1.90% -2.47% -3.71% - -1.31% -0.36% LOSS
2023-11-08 09:25:00 $72.36 -1.00% -0.70% -0.19% -0.03% -0.46% +0.18% -1.04% -0.41% LOSS
2023-08-25 09:28:00 $80.72 -0.17% -0.24% +0.02% -0.48% +0.14% +0.47% -0.67% +0.04% LOSS
2023-08-11 09:25:00 $85.77 +0.06% -0.82% -0.58% -0.12% -1.11% +0.14% -0.04% +0.12% WIN
2023-06-20 09:25:00 $75.25 -0.18% -1.74% -2.26% -1.45% -1.55% +0.20% +0.20% -0.33% LOSS
2023-06-05 09:26:00 $72.43 -0.48% -0.47% -0.57% -0.68% -1.60% +0.03% -0.03% -0.33% LOSS
2023-05-23 09:29:00 $73.5 +0.23% +0.35% +0.46% +0.67% +2.11% +2.74% -0.23% - WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 53.3% Baseline on ADM

The 53.3% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push ADM's performance to 75%+.

Optimize ADM Strategy →

Why Analyze ADM with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ADM. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ADM historically offers an average upside of +1.17% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ADM Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 53.3%, ADM shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show ADM performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.04%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.