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ADP Stock Analysis
Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 70 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-04-20 → 2025-02-06
⚠️ Small sample size (70 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.
🏢 Company Profile
📈 Performance by Timeframe
5MIN
15MIN
30MIN
60MIN
EOD (End of Day)
🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)
Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.
📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)
On average, ADP alerts reach +0.82% profit potential within 152 minutes.
📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)
Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.27%.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.0x the typical drawdown.
💡 Trading Insight: Based on 70 alerts, ADP typically reaches +0.82% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.7% to capture most of the move.
🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)
🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROCESSING & DATA PREPARATION
How ADP compares to 42 other tickers in the same sector.
📋 Last 20 Alerts
Historical ADP alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.
| Date | Time | Price | 5min | 15min | 30min | 60min | EOD | MFE | MAE | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-06 | 09:29:47 | $308.0 | +0.17% | +0.30% | +0.34% | +0.36% | +0.31% | +0.73% | +0.03% | +0.32% | WIN |
| 2024-12-17 | 09:29:59 | $296.73 | +0.29% | -0.04% | +0.23% | +0.24% | -0.39% | +0.43% | -0.27% | -0.24% | WIN |
| 2024-12-05 | 09:26:10 | $303.49 | -0.39% | -0.43% | -0.71% | -0.92% | -0.56% | -0.08% | -0.13% | -0.10% | LOSS |
| 2024-10-28 | 09:25:29 | $288.65 | -0.10% | -0.02% | -0.23% | -0.27% | -0.77% | +0.19% | -0.18% | -0.05% | LOSS |
| 2024-10-18 | 09:27:42 | $292.31 | -0.19% | -0.64% | -0.38% | -0.24% | -0.01% | +0.40% | +0.23% | +0.09% | LOSS |
| 2024-09-06 | 09:29:40 | $270.91 | -0.05% | - | -0.15% | -0.45% | -0.50% | +0.21% | -0.34% | +0.05% | LOSS |
| 2024-08-09 | 09:28:08 | $261.9 | -0.35% | -0.32% | -0.18% | -0.53% | +0.11% | +0.23% | -0.13% | -0.13% | LOSS |
| 2024-08-08 | 09:27:41 | $259.5 | -0.21% | +0.20% | +0.76% | +1.16% | +1.27% | +1.49% | -0.38% | -0.38% | LOSS |
| 2024-07-22 | 09:29:58 | $249.49 | -0.53% | -1.03% | -1.36% | -1.08% | -0.60% | -0.13% | -0.36% | -0.13% | LOSS |
| 2024-06-10 | 09:27:31 | $252.29 | -0.36% | -0.93% | -1.00% | -1.97% | -2.15% | -0.04% | -0.47% | -0.40% | LOSS |
| 2024-05-09 | 09:26:12 | $244.13 | -0.16% | -0.24% | -0.06% | +0.27% | +0.42% | +0.53% | -0.55% | -0.12% | LOSS |
| 2024-04-15 | 09:26:08 | $246.67 | +0.04% | +0.17% | +0.05% | -0.21% | -1.05% | +0.26% | -0.22% | +0.17% | WIN |
| 2024-04-03 | 09:25:32 | $247.66 | -0.13% | -0.78% | -0.85% | -0.84% | -1.02% | +0.30% | +0.02% | +0.06% | LOSS |
| 2024-03-22 | 09:27:19 | $250.49 | -0.32% | -0.55% | -0.64% | -0.97% | -1.15% | +0.30% | -0.49% | +0.30% | LOSS |
| 2024-03-20 | 09:29:32 | $244.73 | -0.12% | +0.29% | +0.22% | +0.38% | +1.22% | +1.28% | -0.25% | +0.11% | LOSS |
| 2024-03-12 | 09:25:55 | $243.47 | +0.29% | -0.31% | +0.02% | +0.62% | +0.49% | +0.90% | -0.35% | +0.25% | WIN |
| 2024-02-22 | 09:27:53 | $254.26 | +0.04% | +0.24% | +0.42% | - | +0.20% | +0.59% | -0.28% | -0.07% | WIN |
| 2024-02-06 | 09:27:59 | $248.99 | +0.07% | -0.02% | +0.04% | +0.09% | +0.73% | +1.13% | -0.19% | +0.16% | WIN |
| 2023-12-28 | 09:27:00 | $231.61 | +0.38% | +0.39% | +0.35% | +0.47% | +0.38% | +0.76% | +0.22% | +0.22% | WIN |
| 2023-12-14 | 09:28:00 | $240.0 | -0.51% | -0.30% | -0.63% | -0.64% | -1.68% | +0.09% | -0.14% | +0.08% | LOSS |
Table Metrics Explained:
- 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
- MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
- MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
- Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
- Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise
⚠️ ADP Shows Negative Expectancy
Despite a 54.3% win rate, ADP has -0.07% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making ADP profitable.
🔧 Fix ADP Risk/Reward →Why Analyze ADP with FILTRIX?
🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation
We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ADP. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.
💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis
How much is left in the move? On winning days, ADP historically offers an average upside of +0.82% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.
📊 ADP Momentum Personality
With a baseline win rate of 54.3%, ADP shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-0.87%) outweigh average wins (+0.58%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.
⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing
⚠️ Caution Advised: ADP shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.07%). This suggests ADP is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.