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ADTN Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 3 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-07-29 → 2023-08-07

⚠️ Small sample size (3 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Common Stock TELEPHONE & TELEGRAPH APPARATUS (SIC 3661)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 09, 1994 🔗 www.adtran.com
💰 Market Cap: $765.1M 👥 Employees: 3,234
Adtran Holdings Inc is a provider of networking and communications platforms, software, and services focused on the broadband access market. It operates under two reportable segments: Network Solutions, which includes hardware and software products that enable a digital future that supports the company's Subscriber, Access & Aggregation, and Optical Networking Solutions; and Services & Support Segment which includes network design, implementation, maintenance and cloud-hosted services supporting the company's Subscriber, Access & Aggregation, and Optical Networking Solutions.
📊
3
Total Alerts
🎯
66.7%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.45%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+2.35%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -1.50%
Avg Winner: +3.19%
Avg Loser: -3.85%
Best: +3.19%
Worst: -4.94%
Trades: 1/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -1.59%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -1.59%
Best: -0.66%
Worst: -3.14%
Trades: 0/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.84%
Avg Winner: +0.90%
Avg Loser: -1.71%
Best: +0.90%
Worst: -3.10%
Trades: 1/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -1.10%
Avg Winner: +0.26%
Avg Loser: -1.78%
Best: +0.26%
Worst: -2.04%
Trades: 1/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +0.45%
Avg Winner: +1.49%
Avg Loser: -1.63%
Best: +1.59%
Worst: -1.63%
Trades: 2/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.35%
Best MFE: +4.02%
Avg Time to MFE: 186 min

On average, ADTN alerts reach +2.35% profit potential within 186 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.96%
Worst MAE: -6.27%
Avg Time to MAE: 44 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.96%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.59:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 3 alerts, ADTN typically reaches +2.35% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 3
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -1.38%
Best Gap -0.44%

🏭 Sector Comparison: TELEPHONE & TELEGRAPH APPARATUS

How ADTN compares to 6 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ADTN: -1.50% Sector: -0.68% -0.82%
EOD Gain
ADTN: +0.45% Sector: +417.01% -416.56%
Avg MFE
ADTN: +2.35% Sector: +9.18% -6.84%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ADTN alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-08-07 09:28:00 $7.21 +3.19% -0.97% +0.90% -1.53% +1.39% +4.02% -1.94% -1.53% WIN
2023-04-11 09:27:00 $11.33 -4.94% -0.66% -0.31% +0.26% +1.59% +3.31% -6.27% -0.44% LOSS
2022-07-29 09:25:00 $24.49 -2.76% -3.14% -3.10% -2.04% -1.63% -0.29% -3.67% -2.16% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 66.7% Baseline on ADTN

The 66.7% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push ADTN's performance to 75%+.

Optimize ADTN Strategy →

Why Analyze ADTN with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ADTN. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ADTN historically offers an average upside of +2.35% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ADTN Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 66.7%, ADTN shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show ADTN performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.45%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.