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AFL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 12 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-02 → 2025-02-11

⚠️ Small sample size (12 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Aug 27, 1973 🔗 www.aflac.com
💰 Market Cap: $56.13B 👥 Employees: 12,694
Aflac Inc offers supplemental health insurance and life insurance in the United States and Japan. In addition to its cancer policies, the company has broadened its product offerings to include accident, dental and vision, disability, and long-term-care insurance. It markets its products through independent distributors, selling the majority of its policies directly to consumers at their places of work, and also reaches out to its customers outside of their worksite through digital mediums. The company has two reportable business segments; Aflac Japan which generates the majority of the revenue, and Aflac U.S.
📊
12
Total Alerts
🎯
75.0%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
+0.15%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+1.14%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.13%
Avg Winner: +0.77%
Avg Loser: -0.61%
Best: +2.40%
Worst: -0.78%
Trades: 6/5

15MIN

Win Rate: 58.3%
Avg Gain: +0.20%
Avg Winner: +0.74%
Avg Loser: -0.54%
Best: +1.48%
Worst: -1.22%
Trades: 7/5

30MIN

Win Rate: 58.3%
Avg Gain: +0.10%
Avg Winner: +0.52%
Avg Loser: -0.49%
Best: +1.34%
Worst: -1.83%
Trades: 7/5

60MIN

Win Rate: 75.0%
Avg Gain: +0.15%
Avg Winner: +0.61%
Avg Loser: -1.21%
Best: +1.83%
Worst: -2.19%
Trades: 9/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 58.3%
Avg Gain: +0.14%
Avg Winner: +0.95%
Avg Loser: -0.99%
Best: +1.54%
Worst: -1.46%
Trades: 7/5

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.14%
Best MFE: +3.09%
Avg Time to MFE: 126 min

On average, AFL alerts reach +1.14% profit potential within 126 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.38%
Worst MAE: -1.05%
Avg Time to MAE: 6 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.38%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.97:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.97x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 12 alerts, AFL typically reaches +1.14% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 12
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap +0.08%
Best Gap +2.04%

🏭 Sector Comparison: ACCIDENT & HEALTH INSURANCE

How AFL compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
AFL: +0.13% Sector: +0.15% -0.02%
EOD Gain
AFL: +0.14% Sector: -0.02% +0.17%
Avg MFE
AFL: +1.14% Sector: +1.18% -0.05%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical AFL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-11 09:28:29 $102.35 -0.24% -0.14% -0.13% +0.16% +0.63% +0.99% -0.64% +0.43% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:27:46 $101.25 +0.45% +0.65% +0.48% +0.45% +1.42% +1.90% -0.59% -0.21% WIN
2024-12-13 09:27:04 $105.1 -0.53% -0.33% -0.10% -0.35% -0.55% +0.20% -0.86% -0.51% LOSS
2023-03-14 09:28:00 $62.16 +2.40% +1.48% +1.34% +1.83% +1.54% +3.09% +1.67% +2.04% WIN
2023-01-10 09:26:00 $71.27 +0.72% +0.81% +0.43% +0.63% +1.02% +1.38% +0.11% +0.66% WIN
2022-12-09 09:25:00 $69.88 +0.36% +0.96% +0.44% +0.41% +0.11% +1.13% -0.13% +0.24% WIN
2022-04-25 09:25:00 $62.95 -0.78% -1.22% -1.83% -2.19% -0.87% -0.24% -0.78% -0.40% LOSS
2022-02-14 09:25:00 $65.17 +0.58% +0.20% -0.31% -1.07% -1.46% +0.64% -0.48% -0.08% WIN
2022-02-11 09:25:00 $65.86 -0.73% -0.65% -0.08% +0.36% -0.84% +1.05% -1.00% -0.58% LOSS
2022-02-10 09:25:00 $66.38 -0.75% +0.32% +0.20% +0.84% -1.25% +0.89% -1.05% -0.86% LOSS
2022-02-08 09:25:00 $65.6 +0.11% -0.37% +0.18% +0.40% +0.67% +1.08% -0.55% +0.20% WIN
2022-02-02 09:25:00 $62.89 - +0.76% +0.56% +0.38% +1.27% +1.55% -0.30% +0.02% -

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 75.0% Baseline on AFL

The 75.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push AFL's performance to 75%+.

Optimize AFL Strategy →

Why Analyze AFL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for AFL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, AFL historically offers an average upside of +1.14% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 AFL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 75.0%, AFL shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show AFL performs best on the 60MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.15%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.